Author, Texas Energy & Power Newsletter; Host, Energy Capital Podcast; President, Stoic Energy; https://t.co/1Hg5bcm4iU
Peak load was only 51,000, nowhere near the April record of 62,000. Reserves briefly dipped below 4,000 nowhere, not particularly close to emergency conditions. To have an emergency, you generally need high demand, high thermal outages, and low wind & solar. Tonight had 2 of 3. 
Four major factors contribute to the likelihood of rolling outages: demand, gas supply, gas & coal plant outages, & renewable output. So far, gas supply is down ~9%. It was down ~20% in Uri & about 18% in Elliott (Dec. ‘22) nationally (drops are usually larger in the Permian). 2/
ERCOT’s RFP asked for 6-hour duration demand response in the winter. Would you sign up to have your heat turned off for 6 hours in a winter storm? Yeah, me neither. If they want 6-hour demand reductions, they need energy efficiency. #txlege #txenergy 2/
ERCOT called for conservation between 3:00-8:00. Below is what reserves look like at both 8:00 and 3:00. At 8:00 — when the conservation call *ends* — demand is higher than committed capacity. What are they looking at that when they set those hours? #txenergy 
...I expect no outages or conservation calls. In addtition to helping keep the AC on, renewables will help keep prices low most of the week. What would normally be a financially back-breaking week will likely cost very little. #energytwitter #txenergy 2/
Gas & coal outages are 40% above expected levels, which is actually an improvement from the last few days, but not in the high or extreme range. Demand response from large customers will likely make a big difference. Outages are still unlikely.
Solar power is having a massive impact on the grid this summer. Without it, we would be in serious trouble and have a much higher likelihood of outages. #Solar will top out right at or above 12GW and... (cont.) #energytwitter #txenergy 
...this is potentially a big deal. The public deserves answers about what this means for this week. If it doesn't come back by Tuesday, the probability of rolling outages is higher than it otherwise would be. ERCOT is projecting a margin of only 2,582MW at 7pm Tuesday. Not good. 
Shelby County: 75% of customers without power.
Chairman Hunter says let's talk about #SB7, the lobby annuity bill. Points to the gallery and says its the "owner box" up there and it "should be down here," pointing to the gallery. He says it's about, like the Pink Floyd song, "Money."
