Doug Lewin Profile picture
Author, Texas Energy & Power Newsletter; Host, Energy Capital Podcast; President, Stoic Energy;
May 7 4 tweets 2 min read
ERCOT had a slide in which they claimed this was the reason for hot temperatures last summer. They did not cite climate change. For reference:
Apr 29 6 tweets 3 min read
Battery storage just passed 2,000 megawatts deployed for only the 2nd time in ERCOT, reaching a record of 4% of total load served. Prices briefly spiked near the max. No emergency declared despite 30,000 megawatts of gas & coal outages, most of which was unplanned. #txlege

Peak load was only 51,000, nowhere near the April record of 62,000. Reserves briefly dipped below 4,000 nowhere, not particularly close to emergency conditions. To have an emergency, you generally need high demand, high thermal outages, and low wind & solar. Tonight had 2 of 3. Image
Jan 15 9 tweets 3 min read
Texans have set an all-time Jan. record w/ 70.9 gigawatts today; tomorrow will likely set the all-time winter record (74GW), except for Uri. ERCOT/PUC called for conservation tomorrow. Key times will be 7-9am Monday and Tuesday. (Note these forecasts bounce around a lot.) 1/🧵 Image Four major factors contribute to the likelihood of rolling outages: demand, gas supply, gas & coal plant outages, & renewable output. So far, gas supply is down ~9%. It was down ~20% in Uri & about 18% in Elliott (Dec. ‘22) nationally (drops are usually larger in the Permian). 2/
Nov 17, 2023 10 tweets 3 min read
ERCOT asked for 3,000 megawatts ahead of winter and got bids for 11. Their RFP was ill-conceived & poorly designed. ERCOT & the PUCT have received 100s of comments detailing how to get demand reductions at peak times. It is doable. A quick🧵w/ more here:…
Image ERCOT’s RFP asked for 6-hour duration demand response in the winter. Would you sign up to have your heat turned off for 6 hours in a winter storm? Yeah, me neither. If they want 6-hour demand reductions, they need energy efficiency. #txlege #txenergy 2/…
Sep 14, 2023 19 tweets 4 min read
PUC meeting is starting now. This is the first Open Meeting since ERCOT called an Emergency Alert during a large frequency drop the evening of September 6. ERCOT will hopefully answer some of the questions I raised here. #txlege #txenergy… I am doing a subscriber chat now. Please join if you can! Instructions on how to join here:…
Aug 20, 2023 7 tweets 2 min read
ERCOT just issued a conservation call. Why?

1) The heat is insane. Climate change is quite real & it’s driving demand up.
2) We waste a lot of energy bc our state’s efficiency goal is very low.
3) We have very little residential demand response in the state.
#Txlege #txenegy 1/ On weekdays, large customers like factories & big box stores reduce their use to avoid transmission charges for the following year. On weekend nights, most of them are closed. We need residential demand response to navigate tight hours like tonight. 2/…
Aug 17, 2023 5 tweets 2 min read
ERCOT won't be credible until they start communicating honestly. They completely left out the fact that 6,600 megawatts of gas and coal plants are currently offline. That's >30% higher than typical. They also got the hours wrong. 1/🧵#txlege #txenergy #energytwitter
Image ERCOT called for conservation between 3:00-8:00. Below is what reserves look like at both 8:00 and 3:00. At 8:00 — when the conservation call *ends* — demand is higher than committed capacity. What are they looking at that when they set those hours? #txenergy
Jun 26, 2023 6 tweets 2 min read
One of the hottest weeks in Texas history is upon us. We’ll likely break the #ERCOT record for peak demand. Today will be a little tight but the rest of the week likely won't. Despite high levels of gas & coal plant outages, bc of wind and solar production... (cont.) #txlege 1/

...I expect no outages or conservation calls. In addtition to helping keep the AC on, renewables will help keep prices low most of the week. What would normally be a financially back-breaking week will likely cost very little. #energytwitter #txenergy 2/
Jun 21, 2023 6 tweets 3 min read
A few takeaways from an eventful #txenergy/#ERCOT day:
- A major coal plant tripped at 7pm during the conservation call.
- Storage picked up the slack in a major way.
- The new backup reserve ECRS was deployed for 5 hrs.
- Prices were in the $1000's/MWh for ~4 hours.
#txlege 1/ At 7:00, when reserves were very tight and a conservation call was in effect, a coal plant went offline.

This happens *a lot* during extreme temperatures. We'll know if a few days which plant it was. Happily for Texans, battery storage filled in the gap... (cont). #txenergy 2/
Jun 20, 2023 4 tweets 3 min read
ERCOT has called for conservation and conditions are very tight indeed today. Solar is making a massive, determinative difference, producing 12 gigawatts on peak. #txlege #txenergy #energytwitter… Image Gas & coal outages are 40% above expected levels, which is actually an improvement from the last few days, but not in the high or extreme range. Demand response from large customers will likely make a big difference. Outages are still unlikely.
Jun 19, 2023 18 tweets 8 min read
#ERCOT grid update: Things will be tight on the grid today and tomorrow — very tight. ERCOT projecting 82.9 gigawatt peak @ 4pm and a spread between supply and demand of only 1800 megawatts tomorrow around 7pm. #txlege #energytwitter 1/ Image Solar power is having a massive impact on the grid this summer. Without it, we would be in serious trouble and have a much higher likelihood of outages. #Solar will top out right at or above 12GW and... (cont.) #energytwitter #txenergy Image
Jun 17, 2023 6 tweets 4 min read
Yesterday at 6:31CT, one of the four nuclear units in Texas stopped producing power. A new fast acting backup reserve (ECRS, which is mostly batteries) stabilized the grid & prevented bigger problems. ERCOT has said nothing about this outside of what's below but... (cont) #txlege ImageImage ...this is potentially a big deal. The public deserves answers about what this means for this week. If it doesn't come back by Tuesday, the probability of rolling outages is higher than it otherwise would be. ERCOT is projecting a margin of only 2,582MW at 7pm Tuesday. Not good. Image
Jun 17, 2023 8 tweets 5 min read
85% of customers are without power in Harrison & Marion counties in the midst of a deadly heat wave. Storm last night was devastating; power not expected for a week in some areas. Would be nice if the Governor could stop vetoing bills long enough to declare a disaster. #txlege Image Shelby County: 75% of customers without power.
Gregg County: >50%
Upshur County: 70%
Camp County: >50%
Franklin County: 50%

This is a major disaster and hardly anyone outside of East Texas is talking about it. #energytwitter #txlege…
May 22, 2023 22 tweets 13 min read
SB 7, the biggest grid bill of the session, is scheduled to be up next after the current bill. I'll live tweet about it when it starts. Check out the Texas Energy and Power Newsletter about what to look for in today's debates linked in the tweet below. #txlege #energytwitter 1/ Image Chairman Hunter says let's talk about #SB7, the lobby annuity bill. Points to the gallery and says its the "owner box" up there and it "should be down here," pointing to the gallery. He says it's about, like the Pink Floyd song, "Money."

And so it begins. Buckle up. #txlege
May 21, 2023 27 tweets 16 min read
Senate B&C Cmte starting in a minute. Agenda lists only "pending business," but, among other things, they will consider PUC Sunset bill which could become a vehicle for all sorts of amendments. #txlege 1/🧵…
Live video feed here:… Also up for discussion for today is #HB5, to potentially create a successor economic development program to the one that ended in December last year. Details from @bradj_TX here:
Feb 20, 2023 6 tweets 7 min read
Still no "in depth operations review of resource availability" during Elliot from #ERCOT.

No presentation has been made to the @PUCTX about the 14.2GW of thermal generation offline 12/23 at 9am or the 30GW offline at some point 12/22-12/24. #txlege #txenergy #energytwitter 1/ SPP put out some easy to read bar charts, so here's one I made, based off @cohan_ds info (I adjusted the rated capacity based on SARA report minus the mothballed plants).

Does this look like a major improvement to you? #txlege #energytwitter #ERCOT
Feb 7, 2023 14 tweets 7 min read
The Texas energy-only market is, to reprise Churchill, the worst form of energy market except for every other. It needs to evolve but should not be abandoned.

Big Senate hearing about the future of the #ERCOT market tomorrow. #txlege #txenergy 1/… In the last 2 yrs, generating companies added 2,000MW of gas plants and they added another 393MW *last month* alone! There are 2,500MW w/ signed interconnections & another 10,000MW in the interconnection process.

There's no need for a PCM or the state to buy gas plants! 2/
Feb 5, 2023 7 tweets 8 min read
There is massive potential for more #EnergyEfficiency in Texas. EE reduces customers' bills, increases reliability & creates jobs. There are 158,882 EE workers in Texas, according to an @E4theFuture report. Many more could be created by #txlege. 1/ There's massive potential for more EE jobs. #Texas is among the worst states for #EnergyEfficiency goals, and we're 36th per capita in EE jobs.

Even so, EE is the 3rd largest energy sector in Texas w/ 31,000 EE businesses employing nearly 159,000 Texans. #txlege #txenergy 2/
Feb 2, 2023 12 tweets 10 min read
About 800,000 Texans are heading into tonight w/out power. It doesn't have to be this way. Distributed energy resources (local generation & storage) along w/ weatherization for homes and buildings could make the grid much more resilient. #txlege 1/… I often hear people say that local outages aren't problems with the power grid. It the job of policymakers & regulators to make sure *all* of it works and is reliable—not just part of it.

The grid is divided into transmission (ERCOT) & the distribution sides... (cont.) 2/
Feb 1, 2023 7 tweets 6 min read
Unfortunately, this tweet from last night turned out to be true. 250,000 accounts (probably ~600,000 Texans) are without power right now. About half of those are in Austin/Travis County. Tree limbs are falling all over the place in my South Austin neighborhood. #txenergy #wxtx 1/ ImageImage Check on vulnerable friends, family & neighbors. Also, close blinds & curtains, put towels or blankets (makeshift insulation) wherever you feel cold air coming in, and then heat your home a few degrees warmer than normal. That way if you lose power, you'll stay warmer longer. 2/
Jan 19, 2023 68 tweets 23 min read
The @PUCTX is about to recommend a direction for a new market design called Performance Credit Mechanism (PCM) (aka Pretty much a Capacity Market). It won't fix the problems with the grid but it will cost consumers dearly. PUC has an open meeting on the PCM today. #txlege 1/ The biggest problems with it: it won't solve either of the biggest challenges facing the grid: long cold snaps and summer nights. The "credits" given to generators will be random and impossible to predict. You can't build a power plant on a credit generated at random hours.