Some thoughts on the market and a basis for the thesis I formed in November on $BTC and #Alts

CPI print at 6.2% was indeed bearish since markets are forward looking and #Bitcoin is an inflation hedge. It was a great opportunity to de-risk. Enter $ETH
$ETH prints a doji showing waning momentum. At that same time the Eth whale claims a 2.5B position on eth finex closing out the long trade from July bottom and Eth foundation sells a small amount 👇
Now let's look back to the recent past in April. When a huge inflows of participants came. Weird how this works. When the lemmings come in masses it's probably time to sell. Some of us did :)
Now let's look at some current data. Volumes dropping, traffic dropping, and therefore can assume net outflows of people and money with a market being propped up. Don't forget we created 10x the projects we had last year with 10x the supply on many this year.
You need huge inflows to support that.

Some thoughts from Nov-Dec in this screenshot
Keep in mind, that in order to support the market you have to recreate the condtions bc you need momentum. More people, more money month over month. Right now, now stimi, less people at home. Savings at a decade low with debt at highs = disaster
Tools of the fed: Understanding where we are, how we got here, and policies that will affect us…
My invalidation would be $BTC reclaiming 58k-60k.It's clear level on all time frames
Losing 60.7k was a huge signal this time around bc it was again a deviation
To me it's much easier to manage positons from a place of strength. Either wait for the market to show participation and real strength.

Or just play the local levels as I have been.
Also you have to assume that smart money looks at charts like this up 250x in a year and is like. Yes. Now is the time to deply my capital. As opposed to being patient, and shaking out dumb money. Odds aren't favorable imo. Although I think Q1 gives some decent exits for many
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More from @Pentosh1

30 Dec 21
"When altseason"
It's been going on for an entire year in various form

Stars produce energy through fusion. Which creates outward pressure. Number go up. But eventually there isn't a lot left to fuse and the star forms iron. The day the star forms iron is the day death begins
It becomes endothermic, so it requires more energy then it can produce and the outward pressure starts to collapse it down. It creates heavier elements and eventually collapses on itself.
Here is fusion of iron in our market visualized. We had a ton of energy and momentum. But eventually both of those peaked. But since we have new projects daily that creates new supply. Especially with VC unlocks in 2022.
Read 6 tweets
28 Dec 21
1/3 For transparency sake. In total was able to get my average to 410 $BTC at about a 47.9k cost average after a little maneuvering from the highs and first dip. About a net gain of +45 BTC from the last major buys at 46.3k
Obviously w/ compounding cost basis much lower
Prob the last time I show size and entries for awhile bc I think the market is moving too fast for most people to adjust to the LH's structure and outlines. Would like to compound as much as possible in this range down to low 40's and re-evaluate

Read 5 tweets
28 Dec 21
I bid some $BTC here :) below is no bueno on a closing basis

Seems big whale got liquidated on FTX tho. Sad Image
Proof of bid Image
Goblin town if we close below here I reckon. Bullas last stand. Otherwise time to entertain 44-45k
Read 4 tweets
27 Dec 21
Okay so going to use this chart for my thesis leading into 2022. $BTC must reclaim 58k simply put. If not then = crab year of PvP trading. I guess my expectations next year are far lower than most people. The common theme is 22 > 21/20. I doubt it.
2021 we clearly had our largest year of on-boarding ever. I don't think it would take a rocket scientist to guess that some of that growth slowed towards the later end of the year. There is a lot to contest with and we have to understand how and why we got here.
Covid, lockdowns, stimulus checks, and unprecedented printing was the most bullish thing that ever happened to this asset class. Covid, lockdowns, and stimulus checks while people are at home likely won't be repeated in 2022 but supply of cryptos has increased 10 fold
Read 14 tweets
25 Dec 21
GM Merry Christmas

After infiltrating the bulls at 46.3k they unknowingly welcome'd in the trojan horse into their city walls. A game of carefully planned deceit into the contested territories were bears could launch a surprise attack on $BTC late bullas. Can they defend 49.2? ImageImageImage
Bulls want to hold 49.2k.

Bears want to defend contested territory and willing to concede territory

Each side will push. I will be bera unless the above is reclaimed and scaling out through that area 😂 risk reward is there
Read 4 tweets
23 Dec 21
Oke. Let's make trading into a game:

Here's how I see it

Right now beras on offense. They take price down to 46k but there was a lot of resting liquidity there = stop price from moving. They begin to close shorts and buy some spot back

Bears become bulls short term like myself
They are willing to concede the ground in the middle bc pick up inventory at the lows. The stuff in the middle is where the little fish wrecked.
If truly bear then they don't want to give up the contested area bc it defines market structure. The area where they are willing to concede is the stops to force buying, and up into contested area to sell excess inventory

If bullish than that area becomes support. they buy flip
Read 4 tweets

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