Thread by @Pentosh1

Some thoughts on the market and a basis for the thesis I formed in November on $BTC and #Alts

CPI print at 6.2% was indeed bearish since markets are forward looking and #Bitcoin is an inflation hedge. It was a great opportunity to de-risk. Enter $ETH

https://twitter.com/Pentosh1/status/1460648131167719428

$ETH prints a doji showing waning momentum. At that same time the Eth whale claims a 2.5B position on eth finex closing out the long trade from July bottom and Eth foundation sells a small amount 👇

https://twitter.com/Pentosh1/status/1459665532551057408?s=20

Now let's look back to the recent past in April. When a huge inflows of participants came. Weird how this works. When the lemmings come in masses it's probably time to sell. Some of us did :)

https://twitter.com/Pentosh1/status/1383754831597162503?s=20

Now let's look at some current data. Volumes dropping, traffic dropping, and therefore can assume net outflows of people and money with a market being propped up. Don't forget we created 10x the projects we had last year with 10x the supply on many this year.

You need huge inflows to support that.

Some thoughts from Nov-Dec in this screenshot

Keep in mind, that in order to support the market you have to recreate the condtions bc you need momentum. More people, more money month over month. Right now, now stimi, less people at home. Savings at a decade low with debt at highs = disaster

Tools of the fed: Understanding where we are, how we got here, and policies that will affect us
getrevue.co/profile/pentos…

My invalidation would be $BTC reclaiming 58k-60k.It's clear level on all time frames

Losing 60.7k was a huge signal this time around bc it was again a deviation

https://twitter.com/Pentosh1/status/1466171888296681477?s=20

Same with $ETH here

https://twitter.com/Pentosh1/status/1475863094983335942?s=20

Which was the same as this:

https://twitter.com/Pentosh1/status/1383434464840208390?s=20

To me it's much easier to manage positons from a place of strength. Either wait for the market to show participation and real strength.

Or just play the local levels as I have been.

Also you have to assume that smart money looks at charts like this up 250x in a year and is like. Yes. Now is the time to deply my capital. As opposed to being patient, and shaking out dumb money. Odds aren't favorable imo. Although I think Q1 gives some decent exits for many

@bitcoinpanda69 69th pico