Thread by @maxbone55

1/ Pres. Paul Biya's New Year's #BiyaSpeech was relatively unremarkable compared to previous years, w/ no major announcements or provocative statements that go beyond what is the norm. It is still worth examining as it demonstrates the thinking of the gov on several fronts.

2/ At the outset of the speech, a large amount of time was given to #COVID, claiming that the gov. "t is yielding excellent results," ironic given the lack of public data, & viral stories of people needing to pay to get a negative test.

3/ While it is true that testing is quite accessible in urban areas, there is virtually no data on cases & deaths being shared. This leads to confusion & having no way of grasping the state of the pandemic in Cameroon. See below the @Reuters graph, this dataset is unrealistic.

4/ This is not to say that Cameroon, like countries around the world, has faced real challenges in testing & gathering data. But, the gov has admitted to not being transparent from the beginning. This leads to apathy amongst the population, & a sense that COVID-19 is not present.

5/ This is not to mention Biya's urge to get people vaccinated, which was far from forceful. Saying " vaccination is definitely an additional preventive measure" does not communicate the urgency for Cameroonians to get vaccinated, nor give instructions on how to do so.

6/ While Cameroon has suffered from vaccine inequality, the resistance to vaccination is large. Multiple types of vaccines are available all over the country, & doses have been disposed of because they expired. @DrManaouda yesterday said the vaccine rate is 6%.

7/ Cameroon is not alone in dealing w/ vaccine hesitancy, but this speech underlines the government's failure & lack of understanding of this. The lack of trust that many have in the gov. clearly plays a role in this hesitancy & thus far the gov has failed to address this.

8/ Biya then went on to speak at length about the "National Development Strategy. Biya said this was made possible due to "domestic budget consolidation measures," & "our capacity to mobilize funds." Quite ironic given the day after the gov announced #EndMobileMoneyTax.

9/ Notably, Biya highlighted nine projects of this plan made possible by such revenues. Those mentioned disproportionately are either in Yaounde or Biya's native South Region. None are in the impoverished East Region, or the conflict-ridden Far North, NW, & SW.

10/ Unsurprisingly, he highlighted the refinancing of the Eurobonds and the IMF finance program. This ignores the domestic & international outcry about this, not to mention the theft of previous IMF funds by senior members of the government.

11/ Biya mentioned the "credibility of Cameroon’s signature" as making all of this possible. This is quite far from the truth, both economically & politically. All one needs to do is look at recent statements by international organizations & intl gov bodies.

12/ Biya mentioned, "Boko Haram’s sporadic incursions into the Far-North Region." Sporadic ignores the impact the group continues to have across the region & the often counterproductive role of the state in addressing it.

13/ He went on " to commend the full mobilization of the nation’s lifeblood, the population and vigilante committees, that are contributing decisively to the success of our popular defense strategy" This again ignores the human rights abuses that have enabled Boko Haram.

14/ It is no surprise that the gov continues to ignore the complex socio-economic dynamics in the Far North that allowed Boko Haram to emerge & how the response of the gov has in many ways been counterproductive. This approach to BH will evidently continue into 2022.

15/ Biya conflated the fight against BH to #EndAnglophoneCrisis, mentioning the two of them in the same sentence. He commended the gov DDR centers in the Far North and the NWSW. While they have seen some success in the Far North, in NWSW they have largely been a joke.

16/ "Many Boko Haram members have laid down their arms and are being catered for in Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration Centres in the Far-North Region. The same holds true in the North-West and South-West Regions." This is simply not consistent w/ reality.

17/ He referred to the Ambazonian secessionist groups are engaged in "criminality" & "barbarism." There is some truth to this, but evidently, he ignores the much larger role played by the gov in committing crimes in #EndAnglophoneCrisis. Again, more dreadful continuity.

18/ He said that the go continues to "demonstrate openness and readiness for dialogue," despite the fact that the gov ignored the Swiss Initiative back when it showed promise in 2019 & sabotaged the negotiations between the Nera 10 & PM's office in 2020.

19/ Of course, he refers to the Major National Dialogue of 2019 as a means of addressing the crisis. This ignores how it was boycotted by many. He said that the so-called special status that the NWSW was granted reflects "cultural and language specificities."

20/ This instance on old and symbolic measures shows that the ineffective measures taken by the gov thus far in #EndAnglophoneCrisis will continue into the New Year. The willful ignorance of the gov towards the crisis will only lead to more death & suffering as we have seen.

21/ Notably, Biya did acknowledge the slow (non-existent) implementation of decentralization measures. Saying "some people would prefer that we move faster in this area." Even if some actions occur, they will be symbolic & not change how local affairs in Cameroon are governed.

22/ Of course, he went to great length to underline that #AFCON2021 was being held in Cameroon despite some resistance. It is worth noting that the tournament has not yet started & the African Nations Championship in Cameroon last year had many logistical & health challenges.

23/ Hopefully, such an important tournament of the beautiful game being held in Cameroon can allow for some enjoyment by the population. But this ignores the real challenges that are posed to spectators & players by the socio-economic condition in the country. Time will tell.

24/ A notable omission is no reference to Maurice Kamto or the MRC. Kamto was a significant target of last year's address, and despite recently being arrested, he did not even get a coded mention this year. This could be a coincidence, but it is very much worth thinking about.

25/ In short, #BiyaSpeech lacked substance & underlined that the gov continues to remain willfully ignorant of the many challenges facing Cameroon. Sadly, we can expect this to lead to many such as #EndAnglophoneCrisis deteriorating in the coming year. END.