In a few moments, @FLSurgeonGen Dr. Joseph Ladapo and @SMarstiller of AHCA will be joining @GovRonDeSantis at a press conference at Broward Health in Fort Lauderdale.
The Governor starts off by saying it's not clear that mABs won't still be a benefit, even against Omicron, but we know Delta is still around and it's clear that it's effective against that.
The Governor mentions we know Omicron is far less pathogenic than Delta based on a ton of data coming out of South Africa and Europe. We know it's mostly an upper respiratory virus compared to Delta, which was causing a lot of lower lung issues.
He also adds that Omicron is definitely spreading more rapidly than Delta. The other key is that while Omicron is causing more reinfections and breakthough infections, we know Omicron is providing better prior immunity against Delta itself.
Florida will open additional mABs sites as soon as the Federal government opens back up supply of monoclonals. But it's contingent on the government sending the needed doses (at least 30-40,000 additional).
Florida had been planning for this winter surge if needed. We can open sites up within 24 hours as soon as we have supply. We have been planning for additional sites and getting strike teams and clinics going with mABs. We also set aside money in the budget for additional supply.
There are several hospitals that have been making a distinction between "from" and "with" COVID-19 in Florida hospitals. Some hospitals are reporting over 50% are merely testing positive but in the hospital for something other than COVID. Our COVID utilization is among the lowest
We believe based on our surveillance that most of the severe cases being seen in area hospitals are due to Delta, despite many areas of the state being predominately Omicron cases.
FDEM has been pushing for more tests for places that need it. Local jurisdictions have been authorized (already) to set up testing sites.
In the meantime, the state is working on guidance to streamline who should be testing/when. This is to ease the rush of asymptomatic testing
If there are outbreaks in nursing homes, we will continue to look at monoclonal strike teams to quickly help mitigate risk.
It is a priority to attempt to decipher variant type quickly so if we know if it's Omicron or Delta, we can make an informed decision on which monoclonal antibody type we can use for strike teams and higher risk individuals wanting mABs in treatment sites.
Now Dr. Ladapo speaking:
Dr. Ladapo says Omicron is spreading rapidly but the good news is that is appears to be less virulent and hospitalizations are not increasing nearly at the same rate as cases. The change in hospitalizations is not anywhere near what it was previously.
He says the estimates are that on average, around half of the people hospitalized are there for something else. He says it's being seen in ICU usage, which is now much lower than it was.
Dr. Ladapo thanks the Federal government for reversing the decision to withhold monoclonals. He says it was a mistake to pull those to begin with.
Fluvoxamine is another treatment option that is proving effective against COVID-19. He says there are promising studies on inhalants in general. He says the state is working with state clinicians to get more treatment options into clinics.
Florida will reduce the use of low value testing and increase high value testing. He wants to prioritize the type of testing that will reduce severe outcomes. Guidance will come out by the state to prioritize the people that should be testing.
We need to stop living around testing. He says we'll be stuck in a cycle if we don't start to break away from the preoccupation from COVID determining the boundaries of living life.
Simone Marstiller of AHCA says hospitalizations are down 69% from the Aug. 18 peak and ICU is down 84% from the August peak.
The Governor is saying hysteria is again driving things and doing the things we have learned are destructive such as closing schools. He says we will not let fear drive our decisions in Florida. He also adds that with Omicron, it's not even justifiable.
The Governor says we will continue to take steps to mitigate risk as long as this virus is causing damage, but we will not let it shut us down.
"You can't let hysteria undercut the normal functioning of society," he adds as he opens it up to questions from the media.
"I should have been at the beach in Delaware and they would have been really happy with that," the Governor says of his single day absence from the schedule last Wednesday.
"These are folks that just aren't shooting straight right now," he adds of the political enemies that are making wild accusations.
"How big a failure have these vaccine passports been?" the Governor asks. He says all they've done is discriminated against people for individuals choices and created two-tiered society. He says they're doing nothing to stop all these cases across the country.
And that concludes the press conference.
/End
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For the record, I will stipulate what I always have believed: I still think vaccines stimulate the immune system and provide memory for defenses if you get infected to greatly decrease risk of severe disease.
But suffice to say, there is NO justification to use them vs. spread.
If a variant were milder, you should see the rate of hospitalizations decrease significantly from cases and also ICU should start to drop compared to total hospitalizations.
In Florida, tell me what you see when I put these two things together...
(1/2)
You might also see a simultaneous drop in length of stay if a variant is milder. That is to say with more incidental hospitalizations and less disease prevalence, you would see shorter hospital stays.
Here is a 28-day rolling average for LOS in Florida. See the same drop?
2/2
Data:
Cases from CDC U.S. Cases and Deaths time series
Hospital data from HHS daily reported patient impact and hospital capacity by state.
Length of Stays is estimated/imputed from sum of patient days over 28 days, divided by census at the start + new hospital admissions.
I want to be transparent, so I'll add the report isn't straightforward. It's not clear if the 51 is current hospitalizations or total "from". Another page shows 210 total hospital admissions with confirmed Omicron cases testing positive within 48 hours prior to or after admission
England has reported 23,168 confirmed Omicron cases as of 6 p.m. on Dec. 17 local time for their Dec. 18 report.
Grand total hospitalizations with a positive test, not necessarily from COVID-19? 85.
For the math impaired, that's 0.37% hospitalized.
Currently the U.S. is >7%
To clarify, the U.S. is just over 7% of typical 7-day number of cases that result in a hospital admission, regardless of variant. This number was usually 11-13% late last year and early this year.
So if Omicron stays under 1%, it's fantastic.
Also remember: there was just a story out of South Africa that their hospital admissions were about 19% of cases last year during the beginning of the Delta wave. They're currently about 1.7% of cases. England, so far, is 0.37% of cases.
* Retreating from lockdowns when he saw a lack of benefit
* Protecting vulnerable
* Being honest when he saw vaccines were reducing risk but not stopping transmission
* Prioritizing treatment
* Recognizing seasonality & immunity
They...scoffed when he said lockdowns weren't helping.
Pleaded when he opened schools.
Ridiculed for citing seasonal patterns.
Threw a tantrum for vaccinating elderly first.
Outraged for banning forced school masks.
Amazed when he recognized vaccines weren't stopping cases.
But time and time again, data proves these decisions correct.
And now we see doubling down on boosters to stop cases that aren't being stopped by vaccines, and they're changing the definition of vaccinated just as he predicted they would.
Yes, it's technically true that most cases are "mild" and have been even with Delta. But to say that is how Delta was being initially reported by people on the ground is an attempt to revise history. That's not how Delta was viewed in the early reports out of India.
1/2
Delta, the B.1.617.2 variant, was discovered in December 2020, although not much was really known about it or was it seen spreading until February 2021.
Immediately, severe illness was being seen in Maharashtra where pneumonia was seen in early stages.
Over the first several weeks, although death rates did not necessarily increase, there were most certainly deaths and the rates did not decrease either. By April, India was experiencing a second wave that doctors were describing as having higher viral loads and rate of symptoms.