Omicron hopefully once. The virus mutated enough to spread more rapidly and evade vaccines and prior infection immunity, but lost some virulence in the process.
It can still cause harm and disrupt life, but this is a bit of much needed hope
A milder variant can still cause problems. It may also appear milder than it is because a lot of people have pre existing immunity from prior Covid and vaccinations. So we cannot be complacent that it is milder.
Hope for the New Year comes from South Africa: the omicron wave peaks quickly in 3 weeks. And comes down quickly.
Much faster than previous waves.
Hope for the New Year also comes from the UK where despite the wave peaking more than two fold higher than previous waves, deaths remain lower due to many factors including existing immunity from vaccines and prior COVID.
Not the difference between cases and deaths this time.
Omicron doesn't seem to mind prior infection or vaccination in terms of ability to cause infection— but based on how it's playing out in South Africa and UK, severity will be lower because prior infection and vaccine induced immunity will continue to protect from severe disease.
One of the hardest things for me in this pandemic has been communicating the seriousness of COVID while also pointing out the good and hopeful signs.
With omicron, I'm both worried and hopeful.
Worry 👇 Hope 👇
We don't want to minimize the seriousness.
We also do not want to ignore the good signs.
The worry is that a lot of people getting Covid at the same time will cause huge problems: on its own and due to stress on an already stressed healthcare system even if omicron is milder.
The hope is at least partly due to prior immunity from infection and or vaccines, the death rate from omicron does appear lower. And while the omicron wave peaks faster and higher, it also seems to recede faster.
Breaking: FDA authorizes Paxlovid, a pill, for preventing severe disease in COVID patients 12 & older who are at high risk due to comorbidities or advanced age. I welcome this.