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Vincent Rajkumar Profile picture
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5 Jan, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Mistake 1: Don't test so our cases don't look so high. (Early 2020)

Mistake 2: Treating tests like drugs and being too rigid with approval.

Mistake 3: Not ramping up production of tests

Mistake 4: Recommending not to test before ending isolation

Mistake 5: You are on your own
We are back to square 1 mistake 1 in Florida now.

The whole set of mistakes illustrate leadership failures at all levels.
Just for those to know what I mean by mistake 5, you are on your own:

The CDC just said if you have a test and want to test you can test at end of 5 days. Seriously?
On mistake 4: @michaelmina_lab has several threads on this the many mistakes that have been made from comparing rapid antigen tests to PCR for calculating sensitivity/ specificity to not recommending them to identify infectious people before ending isolation. One below:
My thread was just on mistakes on the testing front. There are many other mistakes which I haven't gone into in this thread.

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More from @VincentRK

Vincent Rajkumar Profile picture
3 Jan
Delta was lightning striking twice.

Omicron hopefully once. The virus mutated enough to spread more rapidly and evade vaccines and prior infection immunity, but lost some virulence in the process.

It can still cause harm and disrupt life, but this is a bit of much needed hope
A milder variant can still cause problems. It may also appear milder than it is because a lot of people have pre existing immunity from prior Covid and vaccinations. So we cannot be complacent that it is milder.
But there is reason for hope.
Read 4 tweets
Vincent Rajkumar Profile picture
1 Jan
Hope for the New Year comes from South Africa: the omicron wave peaks quickly in 3 weeks. And comes down quickly.

Much faster than previous waves.
Hope for the New Year also comes from the UK where despite the wave peaking more than two fold higher than previous waves, deaths remain lower due to many factors including existing immunity from vaccines and prior COVID.

Not the difference between cases and deaths this time.
More information here from the UK. @MarcSantoraNYT @adeelnyt google.com/amp/s/www.nyti…
Read 8 tweets
Vincent Rajkumar Profile picture
30 Dec 21
We were as low as 80,000 weekly cases in late June.

It's 25 times higher now.
25 times.

Weekly Covid cases have quadrupled in 2 months.
We are at higher levels than anytime during the pandemic.
@OurWorldInData
If you think rising cases don't matter think again.

1) When hospitals are full, care for all other health problems suffers.

2) Healthcare workers have to take off from work leading to staff shortage. See important article @ddiamond @washingtonpost washingtonpost.com/health/2021/12…
Read 9 tweets
Vincent Rajkumar Profile picture
28 Dec 21
You got it right again Eric. Daily cases in the US have gone up 2-fold in the 20 days since you called it 2.0.
What's happening in Manhattan is a preview.

-1 in 50 residents positive
-Test positive rate almost 20%
-Hospitalizations doubled.

That's just incredible because the prior infection and vaccination rate in Manhattan is so high.

news.google.com/articles/CBMid…
Omicron doesn't seem to mind prior infection or vaccination in terms of ability to cause infection— but based on how it's playing out in South Africa and UK, severity will be lower because prior infection and vaccine induced immunity will continue to protect from severe disease.
Read 7 tweets
Vincent Rajkumar Profile picture
28 Dec 21
One of the hardest things for me in this pandemic has been communicating the seriousness of COVID while also pointing out the good and hopeful signs.

With omicron, I'm both worried and hopeful.

Worry 👇 Hope 👇 ImageImage
We don't want to minimize the seriousness.

We also do not want to ignore the good signs.

The worry is that a lot of people getting Covid at the same time will cause huge problems: on its own and due to stress on an already stressed healthcare system even if omicron is milder.
The hope is at least partly due to prior immunity from infection and or vaccines, the death rate from omicron does appear lower. And while the omicron wave peaks faster and higher, it also seems to recede faster.
Read 4 tweets
Vincent Rajkumar Profile picture
22 Dec 21
Breaking: FDA authorizes Paxlovid, a pill, for preventing severe disease in COVID patients 12 & older who are at high risk due to comorbidities or advanced age. I welcome this.

In trials, this drug reduced risk of deaths or hospitalization by almost 90%
washingtonpost.com/health/2021/12…
Treatment should start as soon as possible after onset of symptoms and within 5 days of symptom onset.

The trial studied adults 18 and older with a prespecified risk factor for progression to severe disease OR were 60 years and older.
Link to the FDA authorization. fda.gov/news-events/pr…
Read 5 tweets

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