Putin often uses his judo background for politics.

In the domestic and foreign policy arenas, he constantly bulks up his opponents and probes for physical and psychological weaknesses.
Putin always loves to test his opponents to see if they mean what they say: will they also be prepared to fight, and fight to the end?

If they are not, then he will exploit their empty threats to show them up, intimidate, deter, and defeat them.
If Putin's opponents are prepared to fight, and he is outweighed or outgunned by his adversaries, then he will look for unconventional moves that get around their defenses so that he can outmaneuver them.
In judo you can win on points over the course of a series of matches even if you are far smaller than your opponent and lose some of the individual rounds.
The Kremlin works very hard at making Putin as inscrutable and unpredictable as possible.

Access to Russian president is strictly limited. His image is carefully branded and rebranded. His appearances and public pronouncements are highly orchestrated and well-prepared.
Putin's appaerances timed for maximum effect so that his audiences will hang on his every word—looking for any indication of what he might think, or what he might do next, while his circle maintains an almost complete unity of silence.

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More from @DrAlakbarov

6 Jan
Thread. Good morning. Another turbulent day is expected in #Kazakhstan.

Shootout at Republix square in Almaty (Source: Sputnik Kazakhstan)

The military on armored personnel carriers and armored vehicles managed to encircle protestors in Almaty's city centre.

#Kazakhstan #KazakhstanProtests
A large-scale "cleanup" from looters began in Almaty as of this morning.

The military and representatives of law enforcement agencies are taking part in the operation, the Mir 24 TV channel reports.

#Kazakhstan #KazakhstanProtests
Read 50 tweets
6 Jan

Uranium price rose 8% amid protests in Kazakhstan.

Photo of the day:

The mayor's office in Almaty, Kazakhstan burns after being set alight by protesters. © Valery Sharifulin

#KazakhstanProtests #Kazakhstan Image
It is not clear yet how the unrest in Kazakhstan will evolve, and what role Nursultan Nazarbayev will play in them, but it seems certain that the protests will alter the historical legacy he had imagined he would leave.
Share of “Russians” in Kazakhstan’s regions and cities.

There have been no serious separatist movements in Kazakhstan since the country became independent in 1991.

Do not to be surprised if most that shaded area will have a few “visitors” from the north in upcoming hours. Image
Read 13 tweets
6 Jan
The peacekeeping contingent sent to #Kazakhstan from Russia will include a spetsnaz company of the 76th airborne division, as well as a company of the 45th airborne special forces brigade.

More special forces brigades are expected to be sent.
Tokayev basically called for the CSTO so they can crackdown everybody in the country.

At first I expect the CSTO units to control and run airports in #Kazakhstan then they will be deployed beyond.
Read 7 tweets
5 Jan
Thread. Protests in Kazakhstan.

Protestors from the city of Semey.

#ProtestsInKazakhstan #Kazakhstan
Some protestors beating up soldiers and taking their uniforms. #Kazakhstan
Protestors managed to neutralize some military units. #Kazakhstan
Read 103 tweets
5 Jan
Thread. Last major protests in post-Soviet states:

🇦🇲 Armenia: Calls for resignation of PM Nikol Pashinyan over his handling of the II Karabakh war (Feb 2021)
🇦🇿 Azerbaijan: Pro-Karabakh war protests (Jul 2020)
🇧🇾 Belarus: Protests against the Belarusian government and President Alexander Lukashenko (May 2020)

🇲🇩 Moldova: Demonstrations against the pro-Russian prime minister Ion Chicu (Nov 2020)
🇰🇿 Kazakhstan: Protests erupt in Kazakhstan after fuel price rise (Jan 2022 / Happening now)

🇺🇦 Ukraine: Hundreds march in Kyiv against mandatory vaccines (Nov 2021)

🇺🇿 Uzbekistan: Energy/fuel shortages in the region of Karakalpakstan (Dec 2019)
Read 6 tweets
5 Jan
Live scenes from Almaty. #KazakhstanProtests
Smoke is coming from "Nur Otan" building in Auezov district. #KazakhstanProtests
Explosions are everywhere. #KazakhstanProtests
Read 5 tweets

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