Thread by @gbosslet

OK let's talk about hospital admissions (with a focus on #Indiana) and what we can maybe expect with Omicron

Last week I talked about ICU beds, but what about hospitalizations overall?

https://twitter.com/gbosslet/status/1475456740716072966?s=20

1/

A new report out of the United Kingdom suggests several things:
1. Omicron seems to hospitalize at about half the rate of Delta
2. Vaccination is protective against hospitalization, and boosters are important to extend this risk

Report: bit.ly/3Hwq0fC

2/

These data is based on a relatively small number of hospitalizations (815), so take it with a grain of salt.

These data suggest for Omicron, unvaccinated folks are 5 TIMES as likely to be admitted to the hospital as fully vaxxed folks (3 doses)

3/

So Omicron seems to hospitalize at half the rate as Delta- which is great

But In Indiana we are starting this wave at a VERY bad place- we average 10,000 hospitalized patients in normal times

We are currently at 13,000 hospitalized Hoosiers- we are well over capacity

4/

Since October 1 in Indiana, about 7.2% of cases have been admitted to the hospital.

If Omicron cuts this in half, that is 3.6% of cases admitted to hospital.

But cases are skyrocketing

5/

Here are some projections about what could happen with hospital admissions in Indiana

The equilibrium point for hospitalization is probably around 300-350 admits

The most daily COVID admissions we have seen is 539 (2 days in Jan, 2020)

6/

So the good news? Omicron appears to hospitalize less

The bad news? The volume of cases will overwhelm us quickly if we continue this rise

And in Indiana, we have barely 50% vaccinated. So it could be worse than this projection from a hospitalization standpoint.

fin/