hard-core lockdown skeptics share blame for the omicron overreaction. In 2020, many claimed covid was "just like the flu," a deadly delusion. Now comes omicron, which truly is flu-like for vax/boosted. But "just like the flu" has become a tainted phrase: boy-cried-wolf in reverse
I'm no fan of the fearmongering from the Star & other outlets, which reflexively equate lockdown severity with moral virtue & wisdom. But they wouldn't get away with this posture if the other side hadn't made false & deadly claims about herd immunity etc. in the pre-omicron era
by the way, "flu-like" doesn't mean "non deadly." Influenza was killing something like 30K Americans/year before covid showed up. Estimates vary, but Cdn death toll from flu has historically been about a 10th of that, or about 10/day. Unvaxxed omicron #'s aren't far from that...
the qu health officials will wrestle with in coming months (barring a new variant emerging, in which case all bets are off) is whether to maintain the whole apparatus of closures, quarantines, etc for what becomes (for vax/boosted) a highly contagious variation on seasonal flu
Right now, the main justification for lockdowns is that omicron remains a deadly threat to the unvaccinated. And there's truth in this. And so there's a bizarre codependency between Star-style apocalypticists & anti-vaxxers. Let's get jabbed and get this thing over with
BTW, I now have uncountable friends & contacts who have gotten omicron. No serious cases because all vaxxed (& most boosted). This includes people who have been super careful (and who even express shame for getting it, which I find superweird). We are ALL going to get omicron...
This is not something I would have ever said during delta or pre-delta "Covid Classic," but there's part of me that just wants to get this over with & get my inevitable omicron infection. I'm not going to do that bcuz I'm Canadian and I follow the rules. But it's crossed my mind
This is a digression, but during the early days of the pandemic, I'd joke that I was going to promote herd immunity by holding a pangolin sushi party/karaoke contest/GOP fundraiser on a cruise ship. Then it turned out pangolins were innocent...& bats aren't as funny as pangolins
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Interesting @nytimes piece by @Max_Fisher. Russia, Hungary, China etc are sanitizing their national histories, & persecuting those who mention the bad parts. But in Canada/US, it's the opposite: Elites insist our history is nothing but racism & genocide… nytimes.com/2022/01/05/wor…
... both narratives are profoundly ahistorical (including spin-off myths that present Indigenous societies as eco-feminist collectives populated by pacifistic barb-a-loots & ewoks). Yet some centrifugal force is pushing everyone to embrace one fantasy or the other. Very bizarre
in both cases, history acts as an ersatz creation myth for a post-religious world—but in radically different ways. In Canada, Indigenous societies were/are Eden, and "settlers" have Original Sin. Indigenous peoples therefore become prophet figures who guide us back to Eden ...
Toronto Star columnist @ShreeParadkar alarmed to discover that local media critic will air media criticism against taxpayer-funded national broadcaster
It's hard to remember this kind of burn-the-witch moment in Canadian media .... oh no wait, sorry, it literally happens all the time
For those lucky enough not to inhabit the toronto media treehouse club: the @TorontoStar is Canada's largest newspaper, and Shree is both its "race and gender columnist" and (I'm not making this up) *also* an internal commissar for colleagues snitching on each other....
that @TaraRHenley piece about quitting the CBC has really gotten under woke CanLit's skin. Thus do we get the farce of progressive dudes defending a multi-billion-dollar government media company while dumping on a woman who quits to start her own substack. Way to go, dude
and, oh why look, it's some random government-paid senior @UBC bureaucrat just casually smearing a female writer as a racist because ... I don't even know. That's just what these people do.
If current patterns hold, and Omicron ends up being as mild as early data indicates, then the main barrier to a resumption of regular life may be as much cultural as medical: We have spent the last 2 yrs obsessed with case counts, and un-learning that fixation will take time...
From early 2020 to November, 2021, cases and deaths moved in a predictable lockstep (even if vaccination steadily started to reduce the proportion of deaths) on a time-delay basis. Then omicron hit, and now that pattern has radically changed....
Omicron is much easier to get and (at least for those vaxxed/boosted) seems to be much less severe. But the old reflexes are still in place. This isn't a big deal for the anti-lockdown fatalists (*everyone* will get omicron, making it the herd phenomenon they always awaited)...
I've been in Quebec for a few days
Reported covid cases peaked a few days ago at ~10K (though I'm guessing the real # is several times higher, based on what I've heard)
During 1st wave, daily covid deaths in Quebec peaked at >100
Second wave, it was > 50
Yesterday, it was 3
One reason the covid case numbers are coming down, I'm guessing, is that many people are no longer going in for medical treatment, because omicron isnt seen as a threat .... one restaurant manager told me his staff basically all got it. And he just asked them to take a week off
I've no idea how much of this severity drop from delta to onicron is bcuz (1) omicron is inherently less severe, (2) hi vax #'s, (3) skewing of cases to young ppl. Likely a mix of all 3. We'll find out by comparing jurisdictions, bcuz there's 3 variables but 100's of data points
Ont. COVID case #'s have climbed since beginning of Nov, even b4 the omicron spike. But hospital/ICU admissions are almost totally flat—& ICU admissions for fully vaxxed remains extremely low. seems consistent with pattern South Africa's been reporting covid-19.ontario.ca/data/hospitali…
Omicron is going to be a problem for months, since a +-ve case is a +-ve case, with all the disruption that entails on a personal level. But society-wide, Ontario's hi vax rate (including 1-million-plus boosted) looks like it'll have a huge effect. hi cases yes, hi deaths no
Before I log off, I want to make sure I've pissed off everyone. Anti-vaxxers should be pissed at me bcuz I'm crediting vaccines (which are awesome). Lockdown apocalypticists should be pissed bcuz I'm telling them the sky isn't falling. If you're not mad, I've done something wrong