This is a great piece by @StefanFSchubert critiquing "just so" signaling explanations for human behavior.

But we can strengthen his argument by exploring the difference between two forms of signaling: handicaps and cues.🧵
When you hear signaling explanations for human behavior, they're normally accompanied by the same example from biology:

Male peacocks grow large tales as a costly, impossible-to-fake demonstration of their fitness.

It's assumed that human signaling follows the same pattern.
But scientists have studied the peacock's tale precisely because it's so *weird.*

Evolution generally disfavors wasteful expenditure of resources purely for the purpose of signaling.

High-cost handicaps like that of the male peacock are exceptions — not the rule!
Most animal signaling is performed with "cues," not handicaps.

A cue is a trait that first evolved for a non-signaling purpose.

Observing the trait allows information to be transmitted, without resources being wasted on signaling.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ev…
My favorite example of cue-based signaling comes from male tigers.

They grow as large as possible to maximize their lethality, not for the purpose of signaling.

But their stature then allows them to demonstrate their fitness to females.

The signal is a free bonus, so to speak.
People often say that reliable signals have to be costly.

That's simply untrue: a reliable signal must be costly to *fake*, but it needn't be costly to *send.*

If you can accurately measure pre-signaling sunk costs, then signaling can be completely free!
Keep these principles in mind the next time you read an article that uses signaling theory as an explanation for human behavior.

You'll almost certainly find that it conflates cues and handicaps.

If it assumes that signals have to be costly, you'll know it's misinformed.

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More from @ClintEhrlich

14 Jan
Today, many people were shocked to discover that the CIA is training anti-Russian militias inside Ukraine.

To me, it's a non-story: The U.S. military is *already on the ground* training Ukrainians to kill Russians.

A quick thread. 🧵

news.yahoo.com/cia-trained-uk…
The CIA claims its paramilitary training is only "defensive."

That argument does not work for the training performed by the DoD.

U.S. soldiers are inside Ukraine right now, preparing the Ukrainian military for combat – both with separatist militias and the Russian army. Image
Officially, U.S. troops are not supposed to follow the Ukrainian troops that they train into combat.

This is similar to how the U.S. started out deploying military "advisors" to South Vietnam.

We all remember how that worked out.... Image
Read 12 tweets
11 Jan
There's an underrated dimension to the crisis in Kazakhstan.

It's the interplay of Russia and China. 🇷🇺 🇨🇳

A quick thread... 🧵
Many Western pundits claimed that Russia's deployment of troops was, in part, a rebuke to China.

Here's the @AtlanticCouncil arguing that "it's a message to Beijing."
This argument never made much sense to me.

Beijing and Moscow have a shared interest in:

1. The stability of Kazakhstan and Central Asia as a whole

2. The failure of mass uprisings in Eurasia, particularly ones linked to the West and/or Islam
Read 15 tweets
9 Jan
*Biggest Myths about the Crisis in Kazakhstan*

My critics have been busy.

Time to set the record straight about what's happening in Kazakhstan.

Another mega-thread... 🧵
Myth #1. The Kazakh people have legitimate complaints, so their uprising can't be a "color revolution."

Fact: Color revolutions *always* target states where the people have credible grievances against the government.

Kazakhstan is no different.
Standards of living in Kazakhstan lag behind Russia and Belarus, and governance via a cult of personality is unsustainable.

That's why so many Kazakhs were ready to take to the streets.
Read 22 tweets
8 Jan
URGENT UPDATE on the Kazakhstan Crisis:

There is *breaking news* about the attempted revolution.

One of the conspirators was a Kazakh official who has been linked to Joe Biden and Hunter Biden!

This has MAJOR implications for geopolitics. Another MEGA-thread. 🧵
To get up to speed on the basics of the crisis in Kazakhstan, please see my prior thread.

To summarize:

1. Russia views this as an attempted "color revolution" led by the West

2. This provocation risks escalating NATO-Russia conflict over Ukraine

The nature of the attempted revolution is coming into focus.

Kazakh security forces have arrested the country's former security chief, Karim Massimov, for treason.

Massimov was considered the right-hand man of the country's former president, Nazarbayev.
Read 26 tweets
7 Jan
The situation in Kazakhstan is a much bigger deal than Western media is letting on.

I believe it significantly increases the risk of NATO-Russia conflict.

Here is my report from Moscow. A MEGA-thread... 🧵
First, what is happening in Kazakhstan?

Mass protests and anti-government violence have left dozens dead.

Russia is deploying 3,000 paratroopers after Kazakh security forces were overrun.

The largest city, Almaty, looks like a warzone.
To appreciate why Russia is willing to deploy troops to Kazakhstan, it's critical to understand the depth of Russia's vital national interests inside the country.

This isn't just any former Soviet republic.

It's almost as important to Russia as Belarus or Ukraine.
Read 34 tweets
9 Dec 21
Did you know you can become a lawyer without going to law school?

I did it – without finishing high school or college!

You can do it too.

Here's how... 🧵
Law school is actually a very modern invention.

Lawyers were originally trained through apprenticeship.

They got practical, hands-on training from an experienced mentor.
The key to understanding the law is *reading it* – not sitting in a lecture hall.

Abe Lincoln got his legal education in a log cabin, reading court decisions.

I did the same thing, just in an air-conditioned office.
Read 14 tweets

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