Cherry picking of South African data to say #Omicron is mild ignores a few facts. 1st, SA population is very young, mean age 27 years, and infection milder on the young. 2nd SA experienced a substantial #Beta wave & Beta shares some mutations with Omicron. This together w 1/2
high past infection rates may have provided unique immune memory not seen in countries that did not experience a significant Beta wave. Few other countries had a Beta wave. #Bangladesh was one. Interesting to see impact of omicron there.
Here u can see Australia is more like the UK. Bangladesh, which had a Beta wave later than South Africa, has not yet had a steep rise. Both SA and Bangladesh had significant Beta waves. This may account for some of the differences.
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Reality check: #SARSCoV2 will never be endemic. It is an epidemic disease, and always will be. This means it will find unvaccinated or under-vaccinated people and spread rapidly in those groups. It will display the typical waxing and waning pattern of epidemic diseases 1/5.
Cases rise rapidly over days or weeks. No truly endemic disease does this. This is the reason governments prepare for pandemics - the propensity for epidemics to grow rapidly can stress the health system in a very short time. Here is the pattern, classic epidemic. 2/5
Every epidemic infection follows this pattern unless eliminated by vaccination or mitigated by non-pharmaceutical measures. Natural infection NEVER eliminated any infection. Not smallpox, which displayed the same pattern over 100s of years. 3/5