And there we have it: Russia apparently resolves to undertake a formal intervention to prop up an incumbent government in the FSU. If this goes ahead, it will be a first.
https://twitter.com/grudkev/status/1478845704416243713
Yes, Russia intervened to prop up Lukashenka, but not formally — and not this overtly. Russia also intervened in Georgia, Moldova, Karabakh and Tajikistan in the early 1990s, but under very diffident circumstances.
If this does run through the CSTO, it will be interesting to see how many of Russia’s CSTO allies contribute troops — Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
When the USSR invaded Czechoslovakia in 1968, it leaned heavily on Warsaw Pact troops. The CSTO doesn’t have that capacity.
It’s also worth wondering how big this intervention will really be. Moscow may be calculating that a small but visible show of force will shift the emotional tide. If that fails, though, Moscow will need to escalate — with no guarantee of success.
I’m not here to make any predictions, but whatever your take on this, it’s hard to see any of this as good news.
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