Thread by @EricTopol

I keep looking at New York State as the indicator for what's to come in the US. For new cases/capita, it's leading the US. If it were a country, it would now be the 2nd highest in the world after Ireland. In contrast to the CDC, the state has a lot of solid new data to review /1

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1478151699726434307

Hospitalizations are rising, sharply
The level of patients requiring ICU beds is nearly as high as the monster 3rd wave (well below the 1st wave) /2
newsnodes.com/us_state/NY
coronavirus.health.ny.gov/daily-hospital…

NYS "fully vaxx" rate is 72% and also has better than US avg for older age groups.
There's some reduction of vaccine effectiveness vs hospitalization recently, but the overwhelming proportion of patients admitted are among the unvaccinated /3

Here are the case data by vaccinated status, which shows more VE attrition than hospitalization (as expected). And the shift from Delta to Omicron dominance that just took place recently/4

I can't find any VE data for💉💉waned, 3rd shots. Putting that aside, these findings are v concerning. Omicron's impact isn't yet baked in for severe disease, but already signs of VE reduction.
NYS has a much better immunity wall than much of the US, but less than many countries