Some good news this morning. NHS chiefs have called for more resources to the frontline and called out Johnson’s rhetoric of “riding it out”.
Concerns grow that millions of patients will suffer unless action is taken…
[Reported in the Guardian]
While still not publicly requesting proper PPE for front-facing staff nor directly asking for an immediate pay rise, @NHSConfed have openly challenged the PM’s reassurance that the NHS is not overwhelmed.
States:
“The government now needs to do all it can to mobilise more staff and other resources for the NHS to get through this extremely challenging period.”
Calling for reducing staff isolation to 5 days is IMO desperate and possibly counterproductive measure to staff frontline
They suggest redeploying medical students as well - they were helpful in the first wave.
While the solutions do not prevent the exodus of NHS staff nor improve recruitment, it is a sign that NHS Chiefs are getting fed-up with the “take it on the chin” approach of ministers.
They also highlight that chronic staff shortages and shrinking capacity means the NHS cannot tolerate waves of infections.
The Guardian reporting of it IMO is better than previous reports focusing on staff shortages. The 17k hospitalised patients (almost tripled since Mid-December) makes it hard to avoid the reality: unmitigated Covid is compromising care for everyone.
Singapore has performed well.
About the size of Scotland (pop 5m.), they have suffered 800 deaths.
They began with a 3 month Lockdown, which they used to significantly increase care capacity.
They have 5000 additional Covid Care Beds and opened 900 Public Health Clinics (GP-led).
Apart from brief periods, routine care has continued relatively unaffected by Covid. GP's and private hospitals have been financially supported to provide routine care, while GP's and government hospitals tackled Covid.
This is reflected in their low excess mortality rate:
How wrong is Johnson’s (and other leadership’s) inaction?
Almost beyond comprehension.
They have abandoned the public and frontline staff. AND make absolutely no mistake about it, they have accepted avoidable deaths and disability of thousands.
1/n
Johnson’s view that we can ride out the next few weeks is based on a complete disconnect from reality.
Firstly, we have not even reached the peak in the UK. The pressures will only worsen.
The two years of profound healthcare rationing that we have endured will only worsen
New: UK Omicron studies suggest certain populations (e.g. fully vaccinated) may have a reduced disease severity vs Delta.
Hope though, that Omicron is “mild” enough to avoid increased Covid admissions and further rationing of non-Covid care for UK is, unfortunately, diminishing.
According to several early studies on Omicron severity: in previously exposed (vaccines +\- infection) populations, hospital attendance may be reduced by around 25% and admission by around 40%.
[The Imperial investigators advise these numbers may change as the wave progresses.]
On an individual risk level, so long as you are up to date with your vaccines it is great news. Your risk of serious disease appears significantly lower. Even for those unable to take vaccines, there may be a reduced severity.
❗️Massive…Omicron Disease Severity Study just released in pre-print.
Huge thanks to our South African Colleagues who must have worked through the night to complete this so soon.
Some thoughts on it…
[summary last two tweets]
A good study.
✅ Only reported on cases that had an outcome
✅ Controlled for age, co-morbidity, etc…
✅ Used quite solid proxy for Omicron
✅ admitted limitations -
❌low numbers,
❌no raw data on morbidity or mortality
The most important limitation the investigators highlighted, was the likely difference in vaccine/immune status. Around 50% of the target adult population had at least one vaccine by the time Omicron hit. It was less than half of this at the start of October.