Singapore has performed well.
About the size of Scotland (pop 5m.), they have suffered 800 deaths.
They began with a 3 month Lockdown, which they used to significantly increase care capacity.
They have 5000 additional Covid Care Beds and opened 900 Public Health Clinics (GP-led).
Apart from brief periods, routine care has continued relatively unaffected by Covid. GP's and private hospitals have been financially supported to provide routine care, while GP's and government hospitals tackled Covid.
This is reflected in their low excess mortality rate:
And they have maintained a dynamic response to fluctuating levels of Covid-19, not too dissimilar to the Levels put in place by Scotland.
Combined with excellent Contact and Trace services (around 500 employees/volunteers), they have largely avoided subsequent full lockdowns.
Singapore Government took the view that they will suppress the virus in hospitality, recreation, and work environments to permit schools, hospitals and other essential services to continue.
They focused on:
▪️Masks
▪️Ventilation
▪️Testing and Tracing
▪️And supported isolation.
Moving forward...they have a highly vaccinated population, an excellent Covid Clinical Care Pathway, and a functioning Contact and Isolation service.
They have diminished the threat posed by Covid.
And are now looking to "Covid Resilience Phase".
1. They remain dynamic, shifting protective measures depending on level of cases 2. They have limited work environments to max of 50%, sometimes only vaccinated, and all require LAT flows to enter work environment. Employers have guidance on ventilation. moh.gov.sg/covid-19-phase…
3. Schools intermittently move to online learning, again if case numbers are high. 4. They are also moving further towards community management of low risk cases...with financial and practical support to GPs to facilitate. 5. Shortened isolation period under certain conditions
There is also very clear public messaging and instructions on how to self-isolate at home, regular support and clear criteria for escalation: prolonged fever, shortness of breath, chest discomfort..
Summary
Singapore have enjoyed more freedom than many countries, better economic recovery, and MOST importantly, they have saved thousands of lives through a combination of public health interventions and good clinical care.
Singapore now face the milder Omicron variant with...
▪️a good level of vaccine derived immunity,
▪️a working Contact and Trace service,
▪️clear criteria for relaxation/escalation of protections
▪️clear home treatment pathways
▪️significant increase to healthcare capacity
What can we learn? 1. Diminish the threat posed by the virus
- good clinical care pathways
- support primary care 2. Dynamic response to keep essential services open
- prioritise schools, healthcare, etc... 3. Maintain good public health controls 4. Transition to "Living with it"
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Some good news this morning. NHS chiefs have called for more resources to the frontline and called out Johnson’s rhetoric of “riding it out”.
Concerns grow that millions of patients will suffer unless action is taken…
[Reported in the Guardian]
While still not publicly requesting proper PPE for front-facing staff nor directly asking for an immediate pay rise, @NHSConfed have openly challenged the PM’s reassurance that the NHS is not overwhelmed.
States:
“The government now needs to do all it can to mobilise more staff and other resources for the NHS to get through this extremely challenging period.”
Calling for reducing staff isolation to 5 days is IMO desperate and possibly counterproductive measure to staff frontline
How wrong is Johnson’s (and other leadership’s) inaction?
Almost beyond comprehension.
They have abandoned the public and frontline staff. AND make absolutely no mistake about it, they have accepted avoidable deaths and disability of thousands.
1/n
Johnson’s view that we can ride out the next few weeks is based on a complete disconnect from reality.
Firstly, we have not even reached the peak in the UK. The pressures will only worsen.
The two years of profound healthcare rationing that we have endured will only worsen
New: UK Omicron studies suggest certain populations (e.g. fully vaccinated) may have a reduced disease severity vs Delta.
Hope though, that Omicron is “mild” enough to avoid increased Covid admissions and further rationing of non-Covid care for UK is, unfortunately, diminishing.
According to several early studies on Omicron severity: in previously exposed (vaccines +\- infection) populations, hospital attendance may be reduced by around 25% and admission by around 40%.
[The Imperial investigators advise these numbers may change as the wave progresses.]
On an individual risk level, so long as you are up to date with your vaccines it is great news. Your risk of serious disease appears significantly lower. Even for those unable to take vaccines, there may be a reduced severity.
❗️Massive…Omicron Disease Severity Study just released in pre-print.
Huge thanks to our South African Colleagues who must have worked through the night to complete this so soon.
Some thoughts on it…
[summary last two tweets]
A good study.
✅ Only reported on cases that had an outcome
✅ Controlled for age, co-morbidity, etc…
✅ Used quite solid proxy for Omicron
✅ admitted limitations -
❌low numbers,
❌no raw data on morbidity or mortality
The most important limitation the investigators highlighted, was the likely difference in vaccine/immune status. Around 50% of the target adult population had at least one vaccine by the time Omicron hit. It was less than half of this at the start of October.