A fuller update on hospitals in England today, including admissions by age and hospital deaths.
Nationally, admissions with COVID are up by 43% week-on-week, but the rate of growth has slowed significantly. Today’s total is very similar to the total reported a week ago. 1/6
The regional picture is very mixed but growth has been slower everywhere. The change is most pronounced in London, where the 7-day average has fallen in recent days. The fastest growth has been the North West, up 84%. 2/6
Breaking down admissions by age, the 18-64 age group has fallen in the last few days. The older age groups are still increasing but there are signs that the pace has slowed for these too. 3/6
This chart compares actual hospital admissions with modelled scenarios produced by SPI-M-O teams, including a recent update from @cmmid_lshtm to incorporate Omicron. If there is no further uptick in admissions then the peak will be lower than the modelled scenarios. 4/6
COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy in England is now above 16,000 beds occupied. Mechanical Ventilation bed occupancy is down by 3% week-on-week, while other bed occupancy is up by 43%. The proportion of COVID patients in mechanical ventilation beds is the lowest it has been. 5/6
COVID-19 deaths in English hospitals increased by 25% week-on-week.
With COVID prevalence so high this will include more who people who died of other causes, but with COVID, than usual.
Purple estimates are based on the pattern of reporting delays in the last two months. 6/6
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Latest data on COVID-19 hospital admissions and occupancy in England shows a significant increase in admissions nationally, up 54% week-on-week. 1,751 admissions were reported today.
Most of the charts that follow have been rescaled significantly in light of the latest data. 1/5
Looking at the regional data it is now clear that the rest of the country is following the sharp increase seen in London. Admissions up by more than 50% in most regions, but smaller increases for now in the South East (up 38%) and South West (up 15%). 2/5
This chart compares actual hospital admissions with modelled scenarios produced by SPI-M-O teams, including the latest update from @cmmid_lshtm to incorporate Omicron. Admissions seem to be slightly ahead of the modelled peak but tracking it closely. 3/5
Latest data on COVID-19 hospital admissions, occupancy and deaths in England has been released.
Starting with the regional picture this week as there has been a rapid acceleration in London with admissions up by 38% week-on-week. Increases are much more gradual elsewhere. 1/5
For England as a whole, COVID-19 hospital admissions are up by 10% this week, largely driven by the big increase in London.
SAGE released new modelling provided by SPI-M-O teams in October. Actual hospital admissions are currently higher than the modelled scenarios, which did not capture the increase in admissions in October. Admissions are no longer following the downward trajectory modelled. 3/5
The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has published its latest Mortality Monitor to 3 December (week 48).
There were 3% more deaths this week than if death rates were the same as week 48 of 2019. That is 383 excess deaths in England and Wales this week.
CMI calculates 116,900 excess deaths in the UK since the start of the pandemic, of which 44,000 occurred in 2021.
Cumulative mortality YTD is 6.3% of a full year's mortality above 2019, though for now it remains lower than 2012, 2013, 2015 and of course 2020.
This analysis of death rates shows significantly fewer excess deaths than COVID deaths this week, as was also the case last week. This follows a long period where the calculated excess was consistently similar to the number of COVID deaths each week.
The effective reproduction number, R, has risen significantly in South Africa since early November, but as @trvrb shows, this may be due to a higher R0, greater immune escape, or a mixture of the two.
Initial findings suggest that Omicron *may* have less severe impacts than were seen for other variants. @MRCza states that it will take another two weeks before one can draw more precise conclusions about disease severity.
Latest data on COVID-19 hospital admissions, bed occupancy and hospital deaths in England has been released.
Admissions have been rising. Nationally, the moving average is up by 6% week-on-week. There are large increases in some of the regions, discussed below. 1/5
One by one the regions have been going back into growth in admissions. The South East (up 17%) and London (up 14%) have seen the biggest increases. Admissions are up 11% in the East and 4% in the Midlands. Only NE & Yorks saw a fall this week, with no change in SW or NW. 2/5
SAGE released new modelling provided by SPI-M-O teams in October. Actual hospital admissions are currently higher than the modelled scenarios, which did not capture the increase in admissions in October, but were following the downward trajectory until this week. 3/5
Latest data on COVID-19 hospital admissions, bed occupancy and hospital deaths in England has been released.
Nationally, admissions have risen sharply, up 23% this week. We look set to exceed the July peak in the next few days.
The regional picture is discussed below. 1/6
All regions have seen significant increases in COVID hospital admissions this week. The smallest increases were in the South West (up 11%) and the Midlands (up 14%). The biggest jumps are in the South East (up 44%) and London (up 36%). 2/6
Of concern, admissions have been accelerating, that is, the rate of increase has itself been increasing. Our estimate of R, based on hospital admissions, has risen above 1.1 and does not yet appear to have peaked. 3/6