It’s actually pretty important to have an agreed-upon quantitative framework for teasing out the relative contributions of luck vs skill vs hard work vs initial conditions.
Gets to core questions about what is inherited privilege vs actual accomplishment.
We recognize that athletes, mathematicians, models, and singers all have intrinsic talents.
Anyone can pick up a ball, pencil, mirror, or microphone and quickly see if they have comparable gifts.
This makes people accept nonuniform outcomes. No entitlement to a Super Bowl Ring.
For anything involving others, though — especially management or finance — many believe no skill is involved. It’s all lucky, lazy fat cats.
I don’t believe we can convince them they are wrong.
I believe we need to make them CEOs & investors too. Make it easy to try their luck.
From afar many seem to think CEOs just keep their feet up on a desk. Or that it’s easy to multiply money with no risk.
If this is the case, by reducing the capital cost to be CEO and investor, anyone can prove how easy it is by doing it.
And thereby benefit themselves & others.
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People forget just how completely non-obvious the entire digital revolution was every step of the way.
1995: WWW will fail
2002: Google will fail
2007: iPhone will fail
2013: Facebook will fail
Virtually every sentence was wrong in this one. It's like the opposite of the Sovereign Individual.
"Yet Nicholas Negroponte, director of the MIT Media Lab, predicts that we'll soon buy books & newspapers straight over the Intenet. Uh, sure." newsweek.com/clifford-stoll…
For example, they were calling Facebook a fad all the way till 2013. Then they flipped to calling it a threat to democracy.
To calibrate, in 2010, it was supposedly a joke that Facebook (already with 500M+ users) was worth $33B. It just made ~$33B in revenue in one quarter.
Social media increases social volatility.
Going viral, getting canceled, large gains or losses in status.
Digital currency increases financial volatility.
Going to the moon, getting rekt, large gains or losses in financial status.
We're still in the middle of this ongoing social and financial earthquake.
The internet has given a voice to the voiceless, taken the prestige from the prestigious, given a bank to the bankless, taken the power to print from the printing press.
Some of these changes are transient, here today and gone tomorrow. A viral joke or social mob, now forgotten. An unrealized capital gain or loss, not life changing.
Others may be more permanent. People from nothing rising to the top, people at the top falling to the bottom.