One path-dependent fact of history is that the covid mar 2020 dump regrettably flushed out a lot of true believers, cryptonatives, who were long for halving. On the way up, crypto caught a bid from macro funds looking for a higher beta play to monetary conditions.
I'm in the camp that with or without covid crypto was gonna go up anyway--the covid flush-out simply changed the makeup of the participants. The BTC/SPX correlation increased substantially.
What we're seeing now is an unraveling of macro fund positions as taper comes closer.
What we're seeing now is an unraveling of macro fund positions as taper comes closer.
This is healthy, and much needed for the market. One of the biggest reasons I was bearish in Nov was bc I could sense that this type of participant would be taking profit every 5k higher on BTC anyway. Would be too facile for market to give them a cozy exit.
So who's left after this?
1) individuals /families looking to store value on high time frames
2) individuals looking for greater economic freedom and opportunity in an on-chain world
3) investors looking to deploy in the fastest growing secular trend of the last decade
1) individuals /families looking to store value on high time frames
2) individuals looking for greater economic freedom and opportunity in an on-chain world
3) investors looking to deploy in the fastest growing secular trend of the last decade
This capitulation + transfer of risk back to the market was very important for crypto. I expect much lower spx/crypto correlations going forward. It's not a coincidence that the coiners macro boomers own the least of are holding up the best now (near, atom, ftm)
At current levels
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
