Thread by @AVsitenko

1. As the picture is slowly becoming clearer, I have now decided to write a longer thread about what is happening in my country. It is based on conversations with my family in #Almaty, existing (incomplete information) in various media from #Kazakhstan and people I trust.

2. It is important to understand that there are two processes going on in Kazakhstan: social protests of the people who are fed up with the existing injustice, inequality, corruption and kleptocracy and at the same time a power struggle between the two clans:

3. Clan of ex-President Nursultan #Nazarbayev , who ruled the country for 30 years, and current President #Tokayev, who took over the presidency in 2019, but political power has nevertheless remained with Nazarbayev and his clan

4. What happened? By replacing Nazarbayev as chairman of the Security Council on January 5, Tokayev politically stripped the old clan of power. What happened to Nazarbayev and where he is now is not known. There are versions that he and his family are already in Switzerland

5. What happened? By replacing #Nazarbayev as chairman of the Security Council on January 5, Tokayev politically stripped the old clan of power. What happened to Nazarbayev and where he is now is not known. There are versions that he and his family are already in Switzerland

6. (several private jets from Nur-Sultan are said to have landed in Geneva) or are in the United Arab Emirates. There is conjecture that he, who for years suffered from a serious illness, may not be alive. Nobody knows! Until now, nothing has been seen of him or of his family.

7. The thesis, which is the most credible from my point of view and which is also shared by all my acquaintances and relatives in Kazakhstan, is that the part of the Nazarbayev clan that remained in Kazakhstan (including a nephew of Nazarbayev with connections to mercenary-like

8. groups) did not want to give up power so easily. They hired young people from the poorer rural areas who had nothing to lose to organize targeted looting and rioting. They devastated the entire city center of Almaty, assaulted people and set cars and buildings on fire.

9. Many of them are said to have been drunk or on drugs. Since yesterday, a so-called "anti-terrorist operation" in Almaty, gunfire can be heard throughout the city center. Important: These are NOT shootings with protesters, the protesters have long been at home, since people are

10. afraid to go out on the streets. It is an operation against hired mercenaries and professional armed fighters who coordinate them in the context of an internal political power struggle in #Kazakhstan

11. Some of the mercenaries are said to come from Kyrgyzstan, this information is spreading in Almaty, but is not verified.

12. Why did #Tokayev ask for the help of the #CSTO ? The most likely explanation is that he did not trust his own military and security forces (since he was not sure of their loyalty). Some of them actually showed ambivalent behavior and had left the Almaty airport to the rioters

13. That is why the first thing he did was to replace the head of the intelligence service. If he were sure of the military's loyalty and their ability to keep order, he would not have called the OVKS.

14. Now the CSTO (and there have been several briefings today on this for the concerned population) is really there to protect the main infrastructure so that the Kazakh forces can take care of the armed fighters.

15. What can be expected? It is difficult to say. For many years, various #scenarios have been produced about what might happen when #Nazarbayev and his clan are no longer in power. People were worried and had such conversations in the kitchen. And now this moment has come.

16. It is to be hoped that Tokayev (contrary to so make claims in different media) will be able to calm down the situation and consolidate power without falling into authoritarian patterns of his predecessor. The country needs reforms, but it needs stabilization now.

17. This is the wish of the people in #Almaty and my family, who have been sitting at home for days without Internet, without cash and without the possibility to buy food