Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Jan 7, 2022 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
It's #JobsReport day so time to update our jobs tracker.

The topline:

34m jobs = 16 yrs Clinton Obama
6.2m jobs = 11 months Biden
2m jobs = 16 years 2 Bushes Trump

Already 3 times as many Biden jobs as last 3 GOP Presidents, COMBINED. 1/
Breaking it down by month, jobs have been created at more than 50 times the rate under Biden as under the last 3 GOP Presidents.

Biden = 565k/month
Clinton/Obama = 176k/month
Bushes/Trump = 10k/month

Incredibly, GOPers saw only 10k jobs created per month over 16 years. 2/
During what has been one of the best years for the American economy in modern history, the unemployment rate has come down 2.4 pts, down now to a very low 3.9%.

In contrast the last 3 GOP Presidents all brought recessions, and rising unemployment rates. 3/
For all the GOP obsession about GDP growth, they have repeatedly struggled to produce it.

Growth this year under Biden likely to clock in at least at 5.5%, more than 3x last 3 GOP Presidents. 4/
Since 1989 and start of a new age of globalization 42m new jobs have been created in America.

40m of those jobs have been created under Democratic Presidents. 95%.

Just 2m under Rs. 5%. 5/
Our friend @robshapiro does a very good job at explaining what a huge economic year this was for the United States in an excellent new @monthly analysis. Do read. 6/

And just found this new graph, and it is one of our favorites.

New business were created in record numbers in 2021. 7/
Despite the pandemic, most destructive extreme weather in history, an attack on our democracy the American people put their heads down in '21, worked their asses off, innovated, and made the US economy boom.

Can do American spirit is alive and well. 8/

ndn.org/america%E2%80%…
Finally, you can find all these graphs and an accompanying analysis of it all in the post, below.

The bottom line:

With Democrats things get better

With Republicans not so much.

9/9

ndn.org/biden-more-job…

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More from @SimonWDC

Nov 21, 2024
OMG @YouTube my video about the 2024 election was just taken down because I criticized Robert Kennedy for his anti-vaxx views and the impact they would have if implemented. You have to be kidding me.
I was accused of spreading medical misinformation and required to take an on-line course, which I did.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 5, 2024
Heading into Election night, Trump:
- is not leading in the battleground early vote
- is not leading in the polls or w/most forecasters
- did not raise more money, have more volunteers, or have anywhere as big crowds as Harris

There is no data right now suggesting he's winning
9 of 10 forecasters went into E-D with Harris now ahead:

The more rigorous @washingtonpost battleground averages have Harris winning the election today.

The right may have invented data, maps, Polymarket voodoo showing Trump leading but in the real world Harris has outperformed him and is winning. Image
Read 4 tweets
Nov 5, 2024
Some Election Day thoughts:
- Ds been overperforming since Dobbs, likely to do so again today. Dobbs before/after moment in US politics.
- Early vote, polling got better for Harris this week. Ds enter E-D in stronger battleground EV position than 2020. Encouraging sign. 1/
- The money, sweat and power of Dem grassroots needs far more attention. Dems now have a structural hard dollar advantage up/down the ticket, giving us bigger, more muscular campaigns w/vastly more volunteers.

Released a video on this yesterday 👇2/
hopiumchronicles.com/p/2-days-to-go…
VP @KamalaHarris has just turned in one of the greatest performances by an American politician in modern history. So many things could have tripped her up. None of them did. Extraordinary candidate, extraordinary campaign. She will be a great President for all of us. 3/
Read 13 tweets
Nov 4, 2024
Via TargetEarly, it is now official - Dems head into E-Day in a stronger position in the battleground early vote than 2020. More D post-Dobbs overperformance.

Rs big campaign to make gains in the early vote has failed, and their EV "memos" are just pure bullshit. Image
Cannot overstate how delusional and full of lying and fuckery Trump/right spin has been:
- flooding the zone with red wave polls
- outright lies about the early vote
- memory holing 2 1/2 years of GOP poll underperformance incl Trump
- Polymarket Voodoo!
I go deeper into latest polling/early vote data below.

The bottom line - the election is clearly breaking towards us now. Harris just had best week of polling. Early vote is good, keeps getting better. Red wave polls sign of Trumpian desperation.

Read 6 tweets
Oct 26, 2024
Early vote notes, via TargetEarly:
- Ds running much better in battleground than natl early vote (=better campaign)
- Ds running even w/Rs in battleground vs. 2020
- Ds running ahead of 2020 in GA/MI/NE-2/WI
- Ds closing gap in AZ/NC/NV/PA
Rs not winning battleground early vote
And a general reminder that Rs would not be flooding the zone with dozens of polls and creating betting market voodoo if they believed they were winning the election and everything was fine. You only cheat when you are losing.
When I say AZ/NC/NV/PA are closing the gap I mean against how we are performed there vs 2020. While we have a lead in the raw vote in PA, we are not performing there as well as we did in 2020. All of this data is vs. 2020.

Bottom line - we had a good week all.
Read 5 tweets
Oct 21, 2024
Red wave 2024 update:
- 70+ polls in the averages, 31 right-aligned groups have released polls since August
- Polymarket, Elon 2024 escalations
- Late last week they worked the natl polling average, moved it down, started spinning early vote hard 👇 1/
hopiumchronicles.com/p/vp-harris-an…
Part of their new efforts to drive the natl polling average down is addition of a TIPP daily tracking poll. Predictably, and perhaps comically, it showed the race - all of a sudden! - breaking to Trump after 6 weeks of a remarkably stable race and a bad media week for Trump 2/
Last Wed I did a polling roundup. Polling continued to be remarkably stable. 538 natl average actually ticked up for us that week. We were +4 and stable in Econ/YouGov, +5 in Marist, +4 in Morning Consult, NYT, +3 CBS, ABC. Steady as she goes. 3/
hopiumchronicles.com/p/2-new-polls-…
Read 15 tweets

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