MN’s #COVID19 data continues to be very messy — nearly 5,000 backlogged cases from last week in today’s report, and more likely to come in the next few reports. 
As a result it’s hard to tell exactly what’s going on. Some measures are up, some down.
SO FAR the last few days we’re not seeing the giant *increases* in cases/positivity we saw starting around Christmas. But it’s too early to celebrate.
SO FAR the last few days we’re not seeing the giant *increases* in cases/positivity we saw starting around Christmas. But it’s too early to celebrate.
As of the equivalent report last week (released on Monday instead of Friday due to the holidays), we had reported about 6,100 cases from Monday (12/27) on 44K tests.
As of now, we’re at 4,400 cases from Monday (1/3) on 67K tests.
But slow case processing could explain this.
As of now, we’re at 4,400 cases from Monday (1/3) on 67K tests.
But slow case processing could explain this.
All we can really do now is wait for time to clear this up.
The bad scenario: next week we see a spike in newly reported cases as @mnhealth works through a tidal wave of tests.
The good scenario: what we thought was an omicron spike turns out to be mostly a holiday bump.
The bad scenario: next week we see a spike in newly reported cases as @mnhealth works through a tidal wave of tests.
The good scenario: what we thought was an omicron spike turns out to be mostly a holiday bump.
Earlier this week I shared that I thought what we were seeing was a new omicron-driven wave, on the basis of seeing the spike mostly in the Twin Cities and not elsewhere.
The metro spike has leveled off the past few days, but again that could just be processing delays.
The metro spike has leveled off the past few days, but again that could just be processing delays.
If it turns out I was wrong, of course, I’ll own that mistake once it becomes clear that’s the case (as I did in August, when I *very* prematurely predicted a peak to MN’s summer wave). But it’s too early to conclude anything for sure.
We’re still seeing #COVID19 hospital bed use go up (though not at the exponential rate we saw cases rise last week).
Just gotta wait and see.
Just gotta wait and see.
The fact that we’ve seen apparent growth in metrics slow or reverse the last day or two doesn’t mean this spike has already peaked.
It makes me take that possibility a little more seriously, though. We’ll see next week!
It makes me take that possibility a little more seriously, though. We’ll see next week!
https://twitter.com/dhmontgomery/status/1479505662736576516
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