Thread by @BillyBobBaghold

Billy’s 2022 Predictions/Themes/Narratives, Volume 2

Here are my next 5 predictions/themes/narratives for 2022. If you haven't already, check out my first 5 here:

https://twitter.com/BillyBobBaghold/status/1478841682204315649

6. $CRV-esque season

There will be two elements to $CRV-esque seasons:

6(a) [Actually Valuable] Governance Tokens

As I’ve been saying, $CRV won’t be the last governance token war we see.

However only a very small minority of gov tokens will be hoarded by protocols and users - only those that provide direct benefits to protocols.

$CRV (and also $CVX - I’m using them interchangeably) has been successful because of the gauge voting power token ownership and locking gives. The share of the DEX’s revenue allocated to token holders has been relegated to a distant second in terms of benefits to token holders.

Several dapps already exist that confer similar benefits to its holders as $CRV. The most obvious (at least to me) is $TOKE. $TOKE ownership/control allows one to direct liquidity to a particular token’s liquidity pool.

Therefore @TokenReactor's utility is analogous to $CRV’s, which indirectly directs liquidity to stablecoin protocols via token incentives.

$CRV has already shown how valuable liquidity is and what lengths projects will go to maintain liquidity on its DEX. The same projects are now realising they will also be able to obtain liquidity through $TOKE ownership or paying bribes at @VoteMak.

It’s no surprise that $BTRFLY is so bullish on $TOKE, given $BTRFLY is effectively leveraged $CRV / $CVX and it’s also about to become leveraged $TOKE; @0xSami_ and @redactedcartel will soon be accepting $TOKE bonds and $BTRFLY acquired @VoteMak this week.

@redactedcartel are some of the brightest minds in defi, who have realised that the $TOKE wars may just be just around the corner. I believe they are and I have positioned myself accordingly.

My picks: $TOKE $BTRFLY

Feel free to shill me (privately or publicly) other projects which give similar benefits to $TOKE / $CRV / $CVX / $HND / $BTRFLY / $LQDR.

Accounts to follow: @redactedcartel @TokenReactor @LiquidityWizard @0xSami_ @rektfoodfarmer @tokebase

6(b) $CRV-esque Locking

As well as $CRV-esque governance rights/benefits, we will see a proliferation of projects adopting $CRV-esque token locking.

$TOKE is likely to implement such a mechanism and we’ve already seen $HND do it, leading it to pump 10x in a week (granted the pump was also caused due to $CRV-esque voting power also given to $HND holders) as has $LQDR.

$YAXIS @yaxis_project is another which has recently implemented a similar locking mechanism - it has pumped about 2x, but I expect it to go much higher given the strength of its team. tokenomics.money/f/is-yaxis-the…

And of course #KP3R implemented it months ago. Speaking of @AndreCronjeTech, he will be releasing his own $OHM type token with a twist on the $CRV formula. ve(3,3). andrecronje.medium.com/ve-3-3-44466ea…

My picks: $TOKE $BTRFLY #KP3R $YAXIS

Accounts to follow: @redactedcartel @TokenReactor @LiquidityWizard @0xSami_ @rektfoodfarmer @tokebase @yaxis_project @MORPHEUS_CRYPT0 @DoctorStonks95 @thekeep3r @0xSato @BullishKid @Cryptoyieldinfo @bucketscap3
@rektfoodfarmer

7. Passive Income and Value

As described by @adamscochran, investors run from “growth” to “value” as the market becomes less frothy. As I said above, I’m not sure whether the bull run is over, but at the very least a lot of hype has been sucked out of the market.

This will lead to crypto investors looking for “value”, particularly if it fits into the passive income meme which is becoming more popular on CT and beyond.

Until defi summer, crypto value investing was oxymoronic.

Everything was valued based on narrative or at best potential for future revenues and/or token value appreciation. Or put another way, valued based on fluff and hype in the present.

To emphasise the point, let’s look back at 2017/18; the concept of a dapp had been thought of but rarely implemented. Instead almost all projects were merely ideas which very few ever executed on.

Today’s world (or should I say metaverse) is different. Not only are crypto projects operational, but several print money, particularly defi protocols. The challenge is to find protocols that generate revenue and are undervalued relative to peers (if any) today or will be

I’m particularly keen on projects that fit into this category plus one of my other theses for 2022, such as forex, $CRV-esque, the rise of $FTM and stablecoins. So which projects do I think will outperform in this category?

#KP3R: @fixedforex is just the first of several projects that will earn @keeper revenue.

$BOO: @spookyswap just overtook $JOE as the most undervalued DEX tracked by @tokenterminal. It will benefit from the $FTM narrative also, described here

https://twitter.com/BillyBobBaghold/status/1478841714202726404

$TOKE: as protocols begin to realise the value of $TOKE (see first prediction in this thread if you don’t) they’ll pay @votemak bribes just as they do for $CRV voting power.

$BTRFLY: protocols will pay the DAO over the odds for @redactedcartel’s $CRV and $TOKE voting power, as it may be the difference between winning and losing.

$LQDR: I don’t yet have a bag, but their revenue:MC ratio is insane.

Accounts to follow: @rektdiomedes @adamscochran @0xSato @BullishKid @Cryptoyieldinfo @rektfoodfarmer @0xSato @0xHiero

8. 2022: Supercycle, Crabbing or Bear?

I don’t yet have a firm view either way. Predicting the macro environment is much more difficult than picking sector narratives (or I’m just not as good at it). So to treat my 2018 PTSD,

I am periodically moving into stables and farming with them in case Winnie the Pooh wins the battle for 2022.

However I think a more likely outcome is either a supercycle with sequential 1-3 months bull/bear markets.

Not all alts will be green or red within these smaller cycles, but instead certain sectors will significantly outperform (for example see my predictions above and earlier forex, stablecoin and #L2022 predictions).

I can see this playing out regardless of whether $BTC crabs or prints new ATHs. If it does play out, there’ll be plenty of narratives and gains for smart money to rotate through. Rotations will be quick and not everything will rise together like past alt seasons.

9. Miscellaneous DAO Predictions

- The amount of projects fundraising from DAOs as opposed to VCs will increase hugely. A DAO controlled by 5 - 10 respected CT accounts plus 1000s of token holders will do more for a project than almost any VC (my DMs are open)

- Most DAOs will die, but those that survive will have an incredibly powerful network effect
- DAO’s advantages over corporations will become more clear, particularly access to quick and cheap defi capital and crypto-native consultants.
- No-one will be forking $OHM by Q2

- DAO Proxy voting and delegation will become more common both as quorum conditions won’t be satisfied and DAO services are built out. DAOs will shift to look slightly more like corporations in that token holders will delegate day to day powers to certain people,

saving only the most important protocol decisions for a full token holder vote. There’s a reason corporations are designed as they are.

There you have it, my second tranche of 2022 predictions/themes/narratives. Let’s hope some of these predictions actually come true. I have another 5 or so predictions, but those are more long term and with less alpha. TBD whether I ever get to them. Enjoy!