This is wrong in so many ways.
Disease is a function of virus, host, and environment. Yes, omicron has some differences to Delta etc., but it's our vaccines, with an unpredictable element of prior infection that's changing, but not breaking the relationship between incidence
and severity.
Nonetheless, to use flu as a platitude is also unwise. The reference here is seasonal strains to which we have an element of cross protection in the community, but against which we also vaccinate.
SARS-CoV2 remains a recent zoonotic event against which we are racing
to build immunity as a population, speeded along by vaccination. It may become endemic, ie predictable, in the future, but that does not mean benign, and could take many years. Pandemic flu is also devastating, we would have no prior immunity again, but SARS2 also has differences
in the nature of disease it causes, involving multiple tissues, the vasculature, nervous system, heart, liver, kidneys and gonads etc...it also messes with immunity, and immune pathology is a major aspect of severe COVID...BTW, it's not benign in kids either, just cos risk rel to
adults is lower.
We also know that long term effects are more common and severe compared to other respiratory viruses, including flu.
Thus, continued high prevalence with incomplete vax coverage, continues to cause disease. #NotMild
Treat as seasonal flu at your peril.

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More from @SGriffin_Lab

16 Dec 21
Righto, just going to throw this out there but take none of the credit as the person behind this would rather avoid any ensuing debate...

In brief, there's huge debate around Omicron being "mild'. This is misleading as, whilst populations may be better equipped immunologically
to stave off severe disease, this is not generally due to reduced virulence per se...the virus would be just as nasty in a naive cohort.

So, obviously most of the information we have comes from South Africa. This is important because omicron is doubling so fast there literally
hasn't been enough time for severe disease to develop in any but the very first amongst those infected in the UK. We're used to the lags and thankfully different trajectories of severe disease and deaths now due to the high vaccine efficiency vs alpha and Delta, less so for the
Read 25 tweets
6 Dec 21
Right, have to get some things off my chest...
All entirely my p.o.v, lots of reading but no citations. Happy to be proven wrong, but I've done my own research...🤪
1. Of course the pandemic isn't over and wasn't a few weeks ago either...utter fuc*nuts who said so. Honestly...🤦‍♂️
2. Somewhat related to 1. No, it is NOT ENDEMIC YET, in the UK or anywhere else. I mean, if nothing else, our new friend Omicron is the equivalent of this to that argument...(couldn't find a gif with the big one, would you believe?!)
...but in all seriousness, we have nowhere near enough stability in terms of our population level immunity to outpace SARS2 evolution, prevalence is ridiculous, and this is having the predicted outcome in terms of severe disease, death AND long COVID, across all ages 😪
Read 25 tweets
22 Nov 21
It's noticeable that even before MHRA has done it's assessment, a very vocal element are already trying to dictate the media narrative on vaccines for 5-11 yo...
Sadly, some of the narrative being used to put the kibosh on this is baseless and misleading
There are some key areas that are cited over and over again by certain groups of people against vaccinating kids...they usually sound plausible as they're based around facts, but "based" is doing a lot of work here

1. Kids rarely get ill from COVID. OK, so it's certainly true
that the relative risk for people developing severe acute disease reduces significantly with younger age. Everybody knows this, but we're currently in a situation where the majority of the 12M <18s in the UK are being exposed. As such, it's a simple fact that the denominator for
Read 32 tweets
17 Nov 21
OK, an attempt to explain virus evolution, especially SARS2, and how our present situation influences this process.
TLDR...it's fair to say that current UK scenario is almost certainly an "enabler" for SARS2, and it could encourage the refinement of, or next step from Delta...
Some important points to remember:
1. Viruses are obligate parasites, so entirely dependent upon the host to survive and thrive.
2. Viruses are the ultimate embodiment of "selfish genes".
3. Viruses usually evolve towards improved transmission, in the absence of interventions.
4. Mutation is essentially a random process, but selection and establishment of new mutants is not.
5. We're talking about Darwinian evolution, but on a massive and incredibly fast scale. Nevertheless, "fitness" and evolutionary niches are major players.
6. 1-5 = too much jargon!
Read 42 tweets
31 Oct 21
What I really find hard to stomach on all the frankly heinous statements in the JCVI minutes is that so much damage has already been done.
Failure to protect teens over summer despite unlocking and everyone with half a brain realising another wave would come is just shocking imo.
MHRA approved Pfizer for 12+ in June. We are in a pandemic. JCVI should not have needed nearly 4 months to come up with their non-decision/deferral to the CMO.
Reading the 💩 about using kids the way they suggest is so upsetting, but also how did they realistically imagine that
working?
The fact is that the majority of infections have been in <18s, these have seeded infections in other age groups, and we're seeing rising hospitalisations and deaths as a result, across all ages, including kids.
Our waning immunity would be far less of a concern if there
Read 9 tweets
18 Oct 21
Sick of gaslighting regarding the idea that cases don't matter.
It's criminal what's happening to young people and children, you know I believe that, but perhaps those wearing blinkers might consider how cases are eroding the amazing benefits our vaccines could bring, would that
register, I wonder?
One problem, I believe, is that most of us register changes rather than absolutes or gradual shifts in numbers. This is perfectly normal, it's how our nervous system works for one thing. Another issue is that "the steady upwards trajectory continues" is a lot
less newsworthy than sudden outbreaks etc. Yet, in a very short time since schools returned, we see ridiculous prevalence, plus hospitalisations and deaths at rates in younger people that really should make everyone pause for thought. After all, this is a mere sniffle to most,
Read 17 tweets

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