My book "100 Truths You Will Learn Too Late" is currently on a -37% off promotion. The idea is that you buy the book this week and read a chapter a day for the first 3.5 months of 2022.

Below, excerpts of the first few pages (I'll post more tomorrow)

gum.co/100Truths
Here are some reviews, by the way.

(If you already read the book and enjoyed it, please share the top post above, so that others get a chance at reading it too)
Not-to-do lists

and

A reflection inspired by American History X
Strive to do at least one thing per day that will increase your self-respect.
Put your ego into your future self

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More from @DellAnnaLuca

3 Jan
Any herd immunity supporter who can explain why the hardest-hit Italian regions during the first wave still have more cases today *and* higher test positivity rates?
My hypothesis is that we’re still very far from herd immunity thresholds, and the further we are, the more “virus infrastructure” matters over natural immunity

(virus infrastructure = the demographic, cultural, infrastructure, connectivity factors that facilitate spread)
This matters because, if the hypothesis above is correct, the hardest-hit regions will be still hit hard for a long time, much longer than herd immunity supporters tell us.

Losing competitiveness (uptime, business desirability, fiscal solidity) compared to lighter-hit countries
Read 5 tweets
3 Jan
THREAD: VIRUS RISK FACTORS

Scenario: yesterday, I got a coffee with one of my best friends.

Here are some of the factors that influenced our risk of catching COVID.

1/N
2/ We decided to go to a small coffee shop, with 6 people inside.

We could have gone to Starbucks (60 clients), but by going to a coffee with 1/10th of the people, we cut our risk in 10, all other things equal.
2B/ (Actually, a bit less, because some of the clients in the Starbucks would have been too far away to infect us with the same likelihood of those around us. So, let's downgrade the risk reduction from 1/10 to 1/5.)
Read 19 tweets
28 Dec 21
COVID incidence in Italy maps over incidence two years ago.

Suggesting that:
- herd immunity is still very, very far
- infrastructure* drives outcomes much more than we give it credit

(*demographics, how and where they live, connections, etc.)
This map alone suggests that Sweden having had it relatively easy can in no way be interpreted as “if a country with high incidence had done the same, it wouldn’t have had worse results”

If a country with high virus infrastructure & incidence hadn’t had restrictions, catastrophe
Very important: countries that had been hit lightly have everything to gain competitively to drop all measures compared to countries who got hit hard.

If you’re from the US, UK, South- or Eastern Europe, or any other high-mortality country, don’t be fooled.
Read 4 tweets
28 Dec 21
ALL MY 2021 PUBLIC VIDEOS

Ergodicity: an introduction without maths



1/14
The pyramid of feedback​



2/14
A visual framework for antifragility​



3/14
Read 15 tweets
28 Dec 21
I annotated the Great Barrington Declaration.

One would think that the virus wrote it.

1/3
2/3
3/3
Read 4 tweets
19 Dec 21
Yes, it’s a lot of plastic. But I struggle to think of a better way to make a test that can be reliably used by anyone.

Any ideas?
Requirements:
- my grandma must be able to use it
- no risk of false positive following parts reuse
A possible idea. Germany’s bottles recycling system seems a good starting point (when you purchase a bottle, eg water from the grocery store, you pay a $X tax. When you bring it back empty, they must give you the $X back). Ofc should be cleaned/quarantined appropriately.
Read 4 tweets

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