Thread by @althecat

#ExtremeWeather forecast analysis thread - Pakistan.

An #extremeweather snow event in Northern Pakistan has killed at least 22 people. This thread looks at the atmospheric causes assess whether this was avoidable.

It appears that it was.

news.sky.com/story/murree-2…

This animation shows the satellite presentation of the storm for 24 hours beginning on the sixth. And suggests that the ongoing #extremeweather in in the Middle East due to tropical water flows from the Amazon/Atlantic across the Sahara contributed.

News emerged about the tragedy on January 8th on social media. Tourists caught and buried in the snowstorm in their cars were the victims. Tweet 1/2 from @Arab_storms

https://twitter.com/Arab_Storms/status/1479778905158529024?s=20

Tweet 2. The text on the tweet reads: "Due to the sanctity of images of the dead, the video has been modified. Thousands of vehicles buried under snow and stranded in #باكستان
After a snow storm hit the area.

https://twitter.com/Arab_Storms/status/1479782179324534789?s=20

More news reports here from @AJEnglish , @BBCNews and @Guardian. aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/8/…

Guardian - theguardian.com/world/2022/jan…
BBC - bbc.co.uk/news/world-asi…

@AJEnglish @BBCNews @guardian This animation shows an atmospheric water/energy (PWAT - precipitable water model forecast run from the ACG Global weather model at midnight on 5th January.

An atmospheric river of water which had been over the Arabian Peninsula is pushed south over the ocean.

As it is pushed south an area of moist air breaks off the main stream over northern Pakistan. From the same weather model (ACG- Australia) here we can see a closeup.

This is the rainfall forecast from the same model run which shows intense precipitation over the affected area.

The GFS model run (midday on 6 January) from @NOAA for the same period which shows a very similar picture, but this time a pinpointed extreme even specifically over Murree,

@NOAA This tweet is from thread posted on January 6th with a deep dive into the cascading effects of the last #MiddleEast rain event, ending January 4th with an extreme rain event over #Balochistan.

It contains large scale a 16-day PWAT anomaly simulation

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1479086862476226562?s=20

@NOAA This long range rainfall forecast picture from the same thread also shows an extreme event taking place in this area.

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1479123570127257602?s=20

@NOAA Finally, this tweet is from a thread on January 4th which looks at the final phases of #MiddleEast #ExtremeWeather event in detail.

The current forecasts for the middle east show very similar patterns repeating themselves over the next 9 days.

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1478387281727733763?s=20

@NOAA Numerous people also died in Iran and Iraq during the last event. Authorities throughout the Middle East, Central Asia and Indian sub-continent should remain alert to the risk of more #extremeweather events over the coming fortnight.

@NOAA /ENDS

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