Some of the worst tech and business predictions were made by people most-informed on the industries.
THREAD: Here are 10 quotes with the rational behind them (and sources).
Internet Prediction (1995)
“I predict the Internet…will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.
Robert Metcalfe (Ethernet inventor) wrote this in Infoworld Magazine. In 1999, he put the column in a blender and "ate" his words for being wrong.
Mobile Computing Prediction (1992)
The idea of a wireless personal communicator in every pocket is "a pipe dream driven by greed."
Intel CEO Andy Grove at the '92 Mobile Conference
PC Prediction (mid-1970s)
“There is no reason an individual would ever want a computer in their home.”
This quote is attributed to Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC), a minicomputer manufacturer. The source itself is from an employee who worked at DEC.
The Beatles Prediction (1962)
“We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out.”
Decca Records — a UK record label well-reputed for the development of new recording methods — rejected The Beatles following an audition.
Internet Prediction (1998)
“The growth of the Internet will slow. By 2005, it will become clear that [its] impact on the economy has been no greater than fax machines.”
Economist Paul Krugman wrote it for (no joke) an article titled "Why Most Economists’ Predictions Are Wrong"
Cars Prediction (1903)
“The automobile is a fad, a novelty. Horses are here to stay.”
This advice was given by President of Michigan Savings Bank to Horace Rackham, who was Henry Ford’s lawyer and was offered an opportunity to invest in Ford Motor Co.
iPhone Prediction (2007)
“There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.”
Former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, who was critical of iPhone’s price point ($500) and form factor (no keyboard).
Music Subscription Prediction (2003)
“The subscription model of buying music is bankrupt. I think you could make available the Second Coming in a subscription model and it might not be successful."
Apple CEO Steve Jobs in a Rolling Stone interview.
Cloud Prediction (2008)
“The computer industry is the only industry that is more fashion-driven than women's fashion. Maybe I'm an idiot, but I have no idea what anyone is talking about. What is [cloud]? It's complete gibberish. It’s insane.”
Larry Ellison at OracleWorld.
Spam Prediction (2004)
“Two years from now [in 2006], spam will be solved.”
Bill Gates a the World Economic Forum, explaining that Microsoft had some tools in the work that would finally solve spam.
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Since August 2018, Apple's market cap has grown from $1T to $3T. Despite delivering huge results, Tim Cook's product strategy is often misunderstood.
Users are going deeper into its ecosystem and Apple is positioned to win the next computing platform: AR.
Here's a breakdown 🧵
1/ The best way to highlight the success of Cook's product strategy is cash. Over the past 3 years, Apple's *free cash flow* has totalled an absurd $225B.
Apple has the world's most profitable:
◻️ smartphone
◻️tablet
◻️ laptop
◻️ desktop
◻️ smartwatch
◻️ wireless headphones
2/ Apple analyst Neil Cybart explains why the company's product line is unmatched:
"Computers small and light enough to be worn on the body are sold next to comps so large that built-in handles are required. All these products are designed to work seamlessly together."
When Steve Jobs unveiled the iPhone in Jan 2007, the maker of BlackBerry — Research in Motion (RIM) — had a market cap near Apple's ($60B vs. $75B).
Now, it’s $5B vs. ~$3T.
While Jobs positioned iPhone perfectly, RIM made 5 decisions that led to its fall.
Here's a breakdown🧵
1/ The BlackBerry vs. iPhone story is not as clean as it seems in hindsight. When iPhone officially hit markets in June 2007, many thought it would fail.
Former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer famously balked at the price ($500) and design ("no keyboard").
Tech media was skeptical:
2/ Blackberry sales actually grew for many years after iPhone's launch.
In 2007, RIM moved <10m BlackBerry units.
In 2011, RIM moved more than 5x the units, selling 50m+ handsets for the year.
In 1998, Marvel offered Sony all of its heroes + villains for $25m. Sony said it *only* wanted Spider-Man (and paid $10m for it)
While “No Way Home” is the first pandemic-era film to make $1B, the other Marvel films grossed $13B+ for Disney.
LESSON: Always take the first offer.
For other timeless business lessons, check out my Saturday email: trungphan.substack.com
Here is more background on the Spider Man deal from WSJ:
Notes:
◻️The $13B+ is prob closer to $20B (WSJ article from 2018)
◻️ Tom Holland Spider-Man series (Homecoming, Far From Home, No Way Home) co-produced by Disney-owned Marvel Studios and Sony-owned Columbia Pictures (w/ Sony handling distribution)