Some of the worst tech and business predictions were made by people most-informed on the industries.

THREAD: Here are 10 quotes with the rational behind them (and sources).
Internet Prediction (1995)

“I predict the Internet…will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.

Robert Metcalfe (Ethernet inventor) wrote this in Infoworld Magazine. In 1999, he put the column in a blender and "ate" his words for being wrong.
Mobile Computing Prediction (1992)

The idea of a wireless personal communicator in every pocket is "a pipe dream driven by greed."

Intel CEO Andy Grove at the '92 Mobile Conference
PC Prediction (mid-1970s)

“There is no reason an individual would ever want a computer in their home.”

This quote is attributed to Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC), a minicomputer manufacturer. The source itself is from an employee who worked at DEC.
The Beatles Prediction (1962)

“We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out.”

Decca Records — a UK record label well-reputed for the development of new recording methods — rejected The Beatles following an audition.
Internet Prediction (1998)

“The growth of the Internet will slow. By 2005, it will become clear that [its] impact on the economy has been no greater than fax machines.”

Economist Paul Krugman wrote it for (no joke) an article titled "Why Most Economists’ Predictions Are Wrong"
Cars Prediction (1903)

“The automobile is a fad, a novelty. Horses are here to stay.”

This advice was given by President of Michigan Savings Bank to Horace Rackham, who was Henry Ford’s lawyer and was offered an opportunity to invest in Ford Motor Co.
iPhone Prediction (2007)

“There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.”

Former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, who was critical of iPhone’s price point ($500) and form factor (no keyboard).
Music Subscription Prediction (2003)

“The subscription model of buying music is bankrupt. I think you could make available the Second Coming in a subscription model and it might not be successful."

Apple CEO Steve Jobs in a Rolling Stone interview.
Cloud Prediction (2008)

“The computer industry is the only industry that is more fashion-driven than women's fashion. Maybe I'm an idiot, but I have no idea what anyone is talking about. What is [cloud]? It's complete gibberish. It’s insane.”

Larry Ellison at OracleWorld.
Spam Prediction (2004)

“Two years from now [in 2006], spam will be solved.”

Bill Gates a the World Economic Forum, explaining that Microsoft had some tools in the work that would finally solve spam.
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Another one you might like:
Here are the rationales behind the bad predictions (and the sources).

trungphan.substack.com/p/10-really-ba…
These popular "bad tech prediction" quotes are untrue:
Tracked these predictions down after reading Balaji's tweet:
EV Prediction (2015)

Tesla is a “a joke that can’t be taken seriously compared to the great car companies of Germany."

Former Daimler chairman Edzard Reuter questioning the prospects of the Model 3 launch.
For the other perspective: here are hyped up products that actually just straight up failed
Krugman’s internet prediction always gets roasted the hardest. Here was his response a few years later

🔗 trungphan.substack.com/p/10-really-ba…

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More from @TrungTPhan

6 Jan
Since August 2018, Apple's market cap has grown from $1T to $3T. Despite delivering huge results, Tim Cook's product strategy is often misunderstood.

Users are going deeper into its ecosystem and Apple is positioned to win the next computing platform: AR.

Here's a breakdown 🧵
1/ The best way to highlight the success of Cook's product strategy is cash. Over the past 3 years, Apple's *free cash flow* has totalled an absurd $225B.

Apple has the world's most profitable:
◻️ smartphone
◻️tablet
◻️ laptop
◻️ desktop
◻️ smartwatch
◻️ wireless headphones
2/ Apple analyst Neil Cybart explains why the company's product line is unmatched:

"Computers small and light enough to be worn on the body are sold next to comps so large that built-in handles are required. All these products are designed to work seamlessly together."
Read 19 tweets
3 Jan
Tim Cook has been Apple's CEO since Aug. 24, 2011. Over this span, Apple's market cap has jumped from $340B to -- just today -- $3T.

Despite this massive gain, Cook is only worth $1.5B.

LESSON: You don't get rich being an employee. Image
For more timeless business lessons, check out my Saturday email: trungphan.substack.com

Side Note: when Jobs approached Cook to join Apple in 1998, many thought he should have stayed at Compaq. Apple was in a bad place.

His starting salary: $400k + $500k signing bonus (CNBC). Image
People, the Cook tweet was a joke. Let's talk about the actual biggest $AAPL winner: in absolute dollar terms, Buffett.

Between 2016-2018, Berkshire bought ~1B shares (adjusted for 4-1 stock split) for $36B.

That's now worth $150B+: Image
Read 7 tweets
2 Jan
When Steve Jobs unveiled the iPhone in Jan 2007, the maker of BlackBerry — Research in Motion (RIM) — had a market cap near Apple's ($60B vs. $75B).

Now, it’s $5B vs. ~$3T.

While Jobs positioned iPhone perfectly, RIM made 5 decisions that led to its fall.

Here's a breakdown🧵
1/ The BlackBerry vs. iPhone story is not as clean as it seems in hindsight. When iPhone officially hit markets in June 2007, many thought it would fail.

Former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer famously balked at the price ($500) and design ("no keyboard").

Tech media was skeptical:
2/ Blackberry sales actually grew for many years after iPhone's launch.

In 2007, RIM moved <10m BlackBerry units.

In 2011, RIM moved more than 5x the units, selling 50m+ handsets for the year.
Read 21 tweets
1 Jan
WIFE: How did our portfolio do in 2021?

ME: A Warren Buffet calibre year.

WIFE: Amazing!

ME: Actually, like 1974, when Berkshire Hathaway fell 49%.
For more timeless investing stories, check out my Saturday email: trungphan.substack.com

Buffett actually gave a Forbes interview in November 1974 with his standard thoughtful analysis:
Buffett’s 1974 Forbes interview also had this quote.

🔗 forbes.com/2008/04/30/war…
Read 4 tweets
30 Dec 21
The most memorable interview I did this year was w/ Stanley Druckenmiller, who famously made $1B shorting the British Pound.

The trading legend's track record includes a 30-year stretch returning 30%+ a year (without a single down year).

Here are 8 investing lessons🧵
1/ Make concentrated bets in high conviction plays
2/ Concentrated bets can sometimes *reduce* risk
Read 14 tweets
27 Dec 21
In 1998, Marvel offered Sony all of its heroes + villains for $25m. Sony said it *only* wanted Spider-Man (and paid $10m for it)

While “No Way Home” is the first pandemic-era film to make $1B, the other Marvel films grossed $13B+ for Disney.

LESSON: Always take the first offer.
For other timeless business lessons, check out my Saturday email: trungphan.substack.com

Here is more background on the Spider Man deal from WSJ:
Notes:

◻️The $13B+ is prob closer to $20B (WSJ article from 2018)
◻️ Tom Holland Spider-Man series (Homecoming, Far From Home, No Way Home) co-produced by Disney-owned Marvel Studios and Sony-owned Columbia Pictures (w/ Sony handling distribution)

🔗 wsj.com/amp/articles/t…
Read 4 tweets

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