NO doubt now. BOTH Quebec & Ontario are in huge pain now w/ #Omicron. The GTA now is being hit hard.

It's a numbers game. Too many patients, not enough staff or beds.

Many HCWs & first responders out, too.

It's ALL bad. Everyone's reality is in plain sight.

🧵 below. (1/n)
The number of ICU admissions & ventilated patients in Ontario continues to rise VERTICALLY.

The primary risk for ICU admission remains being unvaccinated, but more elderly persons now with comorbidities & waning immunity also. (2/n)

Multiple physicians in Scarborough, a suburb of the GTA, have noted a surge of critically ill patients with COVID in the last 2 days.

For reference, Scarborough has ~70 ICU beds. EVERY single bed is now taken. They have NO ventilators left. (3/n)

A new record yesterday with close to 2,600 persons in Ontario admitted with COVID-19. The hospitalization curve continues to grow vertically.

Thanks to @jkwan_md for this graph from Jan 7. Note how hospitalizations lag the overall case numbers by about 2-3 weeks. (4/n)
In other depressing, but entirely predictable, news:

The paramedic union for the GTA last night reported as of 6:40PM Jan 8, there were NO units available to respond to 911 calls.

The GTA is a city of millions. Not ONE available ambulance. (5/n)

Nursing shortages are rampant, creating even more capacity challenges.

@birgitomo has been GREAT in highlighting the critical staffing issues hospitals are facing.

HCWs have been tapped over & over. Everyone hits a wall. (6/n)

Many are pointing out, correctly, that the vaccinated are filling ICUs & hospitals. This is true.

Key point: we need to look at RELATIVE risks of hospitalization & death.

Those with 2+ doses remain VERY protected against hospitalization & death. BUT it's not perfect. (7/n)
This excellent table @COVIDSciOntario (thx @Billius27) highlights how VACCINES ARE WORKING.

If you look at cases, there's no difference with vaccine status due to the infectivity of Omicron.

Look at hospitalizations & ICU admits. There is CLEAR protection via vaccine. (8/n)
Most important thing you can do to protect yourself and our hospitals & ICUs?

PLEASE, get vaccinated!

Get EVERY dose you are eligible for as fast as you can. Get your kids vaccinated. Help the elderly & frail get vaccinated.

Every shot matters. (9/n)

For decision makers clinging to "Omicron is mild", this is our Canadian reality.

More triage, cancelled procedures & surgeries, overrun hospitals & ICUs, more HCW attrition & burnout.

When you or a loved one needs a bed in our hospitals, it might not be there for you. (10/n)
Morale amongst HCWs has failed. We see everyone (including decision makers) acting like COVID is done, yet every day we face the reality of what we see in our hospitals & ICUs.

Pretending COVID is over doesn't change our reality. Only policy does. (11/n)

To decision makers: it's not too late to act. PLEASE, put appropriate measures in place to limit gatherings & contacts. Slow Omicron to give HCWs & hospitals a chance.

Otherwise, be honest. Acknowledge you're OK with our healthcare system collapsing yet again. (12/n)
To individuals: yes, everyone's exhausted. The virus doesn't care. Please limit gatherings, test & isolate as able when symptomatic, get vaccinated.

By making the best decisions, we protect those in our society who are vulnerable, frail, and can't be vaccinated.

Be safe. /fin

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More from @awong37

2 Jan
Trends w/ Omicron & RAPID INCREASES in hospitalizations are now clear.

'Leading indicator' jurisdictions w/ advanced Omicron waves (e.g. Ontario, Quebec, NYC, UK) are ALL showing BIG increases in adult hospitalizations.

All are strained further by HCW shortages. Brief 🧵 (1/n)
Let's start with the UK. Hospitalizations are rising quickly, as evidenced by the graph below.

Yes, not as bad as January surge w/ Alpha - yet. But additional challenges including system & HCW burnout, significant staff absences due to COVID, etc. (2/n)
Excellent description of pressures that National Health Service (NHS) currently faces via @ChrisCEOHopson.

Hospitalization challenges now DIFFERENT w/ Omicron. It's a "sheer numbers" issue of persons needing ward/medicine beds, less ICU capacity. (3/n)

Read 10 tweets
1 Jan
Many #SK families are worried re: return to school Jan 3. How safe are our kids & school staff?

Omicron in Regina and Saskatoon is surging. We'll continue to see record case numbers for weeks.

@SKGov, what's your plan? We NEED to know.

A 🧵 on safe schools, below. (1/n)
Let's begin with other provinces who are RIGHT in the storm of their Omicron surges. Quebec has delayed opening of 'everything' to Jan 17. Ontario has delayed opening till Jan 5 to try to distribute HEPA filters & N95s for staff (not students). (2/n)

cbc.ca/news/canada/to…
A respected colleague in Toronto, @drmwarner, reasonably argues for a 1-2 week delay IF a delay will increase booster doses for school/daycare staff, improve vaccine uptake for ages 5-11, & solidify distribution of HEPA/N95s/RATs in schools. (3/n)

Read 18 tweets
21 Dec 21
Modelling released by @SKGov predicts DRAMATIC rise in cases, hospitalizations, & ICU admits w/ #Omicron if no additional measures to reduce contacts (i.e. gathering & capacity limits).

Briefing today: NO measures to be implemented at present. Wait and see.

1/ #COVID19SK
Here is ICU / non-ICU modelling data. Not great, as you can see. Also not being taken into account - scores of HCWs taken out of circulation as a result of widespread community transmission.

Who will look after all the patients? Many HCWs have already moved on.

2/ #COVID19SK
Once again, there is an appeal to personal responsibility for #SK citizens to make good choices, do the right thing.

No surprises here. Get vaccinated, improve ventilation, use your best mask, etc.

3/ #COVID19SK
Read 6 tweets
15 Dec 21
"Hi Alex. With #Omicron in Canada, what's the optimal 2nd dose interval for kids b/w 5-11 who have 1 dose?"

VERY different space w/ Omicron now vs 4 weeks ago when NACI guidance was released.

We'll try for 3-4 wk interval in #SK for our 5 year-old, NOT 8. Here's why. (1/n)
Let's start by acknowledging that we have no real clinical data in this space right now. We don't know HOW protected kids b/w 5-11 are with 1 dose vs different variants like Delta or Omicron.

Kids immune systems are ++ robust, so 1 dose definitely confers some protection. (2/n)
That said, NACI guidance on 8 week interval was developed before we knew about Omicron. Extending dose intervals makes 100% sense to optimize long-term protection and minimize risk of heart inflammation events, etc. (3/n)
Read 7 tweets
15 Dec 21
"Hi Alex, how do I keep my holiday gatherings safe? Do I have to cancel everything?"

Depends on your risk tolerance. If your bubble has persons who are medically vulnerable, elderly, maybe reconsider.

Otherwise, use ALL measures to keep things safe as able.

Brief 🧵. (1/n)
We all know that seeing & reconnecting with friends & loved ones over the holidays is SO critically important. But with the transmissibility of #Omicron, the risk-benefit calculus has changed dramatically again. What do we do now? (2/n)
For starters, MINIMIZE indoor group gatherings where persons are unmasked. At holiday gatherings everyone will be eating & drinking, so keeping these bubbles tight as possible is optimal. Like 5-10 persons max, if you're able. (3/n)
Read 10 tweets
23 Nov 21
"Hi Alex. My (5 to 11) year old just got their 1st #COVID19 vaccine dose. Yay! Should we wait 8 weeks for the 2nd dose as recommended, or should we just get a 2nd dose ASAP at 3 weeks?"

No clear answer, but my wife & I WILL WAIT 8 WEEKS for our 5 year-old son.

Brief 🧵. (1/9)
A longer duration between 1st and 2nd doses of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine has been shown to increase antibody levels and makes COMPLETE SENSE from the immunological perspective given our experience with all other vaccines in both kids and adults. (2/9)

cell.com/cell/fulltext/…
Lots of clinical data now available suggesting extended-interval dosing for #COVID19 vaccines improves overall protection against COVID-19 infection versus shorter manufacturer recommended dosing intervals. Here's an example from Quebec. (3/9)

cbc.ca/news/canada/mo…
Read 9 tweets

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