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Holger Hestermeyer Profile picture
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9 Jan, 6 tweets, 1 min read
German trade data from November 2021: exports up 1.7% compared to the month before, imports up 3.3%, exports are now 5.7%, imports 17.5% higher than Feb 2020, i.e. pre-covid. Let's look at German-UK trade /1
Comparator: Nov 21 compared to Nov 20. Exports to UK are down 4.9%. Imports from UK are down 7.9%. For the same comparator overall German exports are up 12.1%, imports are up 19.3%.
In short: decoupling continues. German trade grew with the EU as well as with the rest of the world. It shrank with the UK. Image
Ah - in the detailed text there's another minus: German exports to China fell by 4.2%, exports to the US, however, grew by 14.7% compared to Nov 20.
Link to the data: destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pres…
The UK was Germany's 5th largest export market and 7th largest trading partner in 2020. It'll be interesting to see the data for 2021 when it's out.

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More from @hhesterm

Holger Hestermeyer Profile picture
8 Jan
I quite agree with Sam: there was the belief that Brexit would magically deliver a low-regulation paradise. But there is not only no democratic consensus for that, there is also the looming question whether that paradise actually exists /1
Quite a few of those proposals (see the TIGRR Report) are written at a rather high level of abstraction, conveying vision rather than how to get there. There is a lack of thought-through detail. /2
As you can see from the merry bundling together of the idea of not regulating and having the common law deal with stuff, while simultaneously being a world-admired standard-setting regulator whose regulations are not exported (we don‘t do that), but copied everywhere.
Read 6 tweets
Holger Hestermeyer Profile picture
29 Dec 21
As I proposed a metric for evaluating booster campaigns to @spignal and didn‘t want to be the lazy guy not actually doing the analysis, I did a very preliminary one. And there‘s a story - just not the one people seem to want to find (short thread)
@spignal Booster campaigns are time dependent on full vaccination. Accordingly, to see whether boosters are on track, it would seem appropriate to look at the time lag between full vaccination and booster.
I looked at when different countries reached the percentage of full vaccination they now have boostered. The later they did, the better the booster campaign.
Read 7 tweets
Holger Hestermeyer Profile picture
28 Dec 21
A small thread on comparing covid numbers across borders - and why it has become more difficult rather than easier (thread)
First up: how many cases are there. The number of choice is the incidence rate. Cases per 100,000 on a 7-day average (or something along those lines). /2
Asymptomatic cases have meant that these numbers can differ with the number of tests (and this fact in and of itself can also be used as an excuse). However, you can compensate to some extent with the positivity rate of tests. But can you still? /3
Read 9 tweets
Holger Hestermeyer Profile picture
19 Dec 21
Short explainer: what do I mean by successful Brexit (thread)
1) The UK has left the EU. As someone teaching trade: putting up trade barriers to your largest market will leave you poorer than before. But the UK has left the EU nonetheless. Period.
2) But in that reality you can choose good and bad policies - more and less successful ones. A successful Brexit for me means choosing good policies.
Read 6 tweets
Holger Hestermeyer Profile picture
17 Dec 21
If the byelection can change the mode of argument in UK politics away from Brexifying everything - it would be a significant victory for everyone. But I fear it will be dismissed as about the PM /1
The current mode of British politics is that if you have a proposal- say about recycling -someone will inevitably wonder what the EU would do and from then on your proposal will not be about recycling. It will be either a great victory for British liberty or submission to slavery
In fact, if you want your proposal to succeed you have to get ahead of the game and make sure your proposal will become the Britain-affirming-freedom-striking-successfully-into-the-world-world-beating-2021 Act.
Read 4 tweets
Holger Hestermeyer Profile picture
16 Dec 21
Everybody, please tone down on the vaccine comparisons. And please, please - none of the superlatives (thread)
It is true that Germany boostered a LOT of people today. It is also true that the UK has boostered more of the population. But it is also true that German vaccinations are not as old as the UK ones. Where does that leave us? /1
In a territory where things are complex. We should try to identify mistakes and correct them. We should work on improving. Hither and thither. The boombastic statements - they simply do not apply. Except... /2
Read 4 tweets

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