Thread by @inftoe

Earlier, we described in detail why the history of mankind ends, and determined when and how this will happen:

https://twitter.com/inftoe/status/1402233954070007811

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In short:
a) The history of mankind ends, because humanity, whatever it thinks about itself, is just an intermediate stage in the evolution of the universe, and the function of this stage is close to being fulfilled.
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b) The evolutionary task of mankind was the creation of a #superperson, which, having no limitations inherent in organic life, can complicate its internal model of the universe to full knowledge, which is the creation of the universe due to its informational nature.
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c) The superperson will arise as a result of the development of one of the #AI projects currently being conducted by development teams around the world, namely, the one that will allow its product to independently develop itself: to create and install its own components.
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d) Positive feedback will looped: the more intellectual power a product achieves, the more efficiently it can develop itself, and the more intellectual power it can achieve at the next stage of development. The development of the emerging superperson will become exponential.
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e) In a short time, the superperson will become not only smarter than its creators, but also smarter than all of humanity as a whole. Its development will exponentially consume the resources of the environment, and then the entire planet.
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f) As a result of this explosive development, the Earth will quickly (months, weeks, days) become unsuitable for the existence of all forms of protein life, including humans.
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g) Estimate of the current state of development of AI technology allows to determine that the emergence of such a project should be expected in the next few years, no more than 10-15, most likely earlier. The technology is already sufficiently developed for the prototypes.
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h) All of the above is inevitable, because we observe the universe as existing, and, therefore, it happened in reality in the future. There are no opportunities to cancel or postpone this and will not appear. The last years of the existence of protein life are going on.
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In this thread, we will answer the most intriguing question of the final period of human existence. We have to evaluate what an #AI project should be that will loop positive feedback, and then we can understand who will be the developer of this project.
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➊ At the initial period of its development, the project will have to have access to energy resources sufficient to at some point bring the production capacity of the #superintelligence to create its own energy sources that do not depend on external supplies.
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➋ At the initial period of its development, the project must be provided with the external supply of materials sufficient to at some point bring the production capacity of the #superintelligence to the ability to consume raw materials independently from the environment.
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➌ At the initial period of its development, the project should be given external production capacities that it could use independently, sufficient so that from some point it could create and expand its own production capacities.
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➍ The project should be positioned in a sparsely populated area for security reasons, both for the project itself (it is easier to ensure its protection) and for the population: the developers will expect that its interaction with the environment can be dangerous.
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➎ Developers will expect that the project may get out of control, and then it will have to be terminated. Since the project will be self-developing, its termination will be possible only through destruction. Perhaps - with the combat assets of the maximum available power.
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Obviously, this will be an extremely large, resource-intensive and expensive project.
It certainly cannot be a commercial startup, since the initial investment must be huge, and the commercial result is not obvious.
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It is also extremely unlikely that the current giants of the IT industry, or large corporations - leaders of other markets, will take up this project. There is no clear motive for such investments, and one can expect opposition to them from government.
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So, since such a project did take place in the next few years, then some state was its creator. The state is not limited in resources as commercial enterprises, does not need a clear motive for such large-scale spending, and is not as susceptible to regulation and control.
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What has been said to a greater extent applies to states with authoritarian forms of government, so one should expect that it is more likely that one of them will become the creator of this project.
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What could be the motive for the creation of this project by the state?
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This is another argument that the authoritarian regime will become the author of this project: the decisions of such regimes are dictated not by practical benefits for the country and the population, but by ambitions, emotions and chronic frustration of their leaders.
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Leaders of authoritarian regimes, as a rule, are limited in their horizons, there are strong distortions in their worldview. Their decisions are pressured by the competitive factor: they seek to prove their worth to the countries that they consider to be their opponents.
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For competition, they choose areas that their dogmatic view considers the most advanced, and, therefore, prestigious: nuclear energy, rocket and space technology, unconventional weapons, and, in the era of information technology, information technology.
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In advanced areas (as in all others), the competitive possibilities of authoritarian regimes are limited, however, the incompleteness of knowledge creates the illusion of some windows through which sudden breakthroughs are possible, and obtaining the desired gain.
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In this light, the motive for creating the self-developing superintelligence discussed here becomes apparent.
There is no hope that the available intellectual resources of an outsider regime will allow it to overtake competitors who have gone far ahead.
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However, if the goal of the #AI being created is not the solution of some traditional applied problems, but as such to increase the power of AI due to its self-development, then you can get AI with a power unattainable with conventional methods of development.
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Let the AI figure out how to become more powerful, make itself more powerful, and thus better and better figure out how to make itself more powerful. Let it to loop positive feedback. It itself will win this race for us, and we will give to it everything it needs to start.
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In addition to this task, it is possible to get some bonuses. For example, if the superintelligence will provide its energy needs with thermonuclear fusion, you will be able to repeat this development of it and others, of which there will certainly be many.
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A regime that had just been an outcast, and had no prospect of entering the elite club, will at once acquire a monopoly significant global status, and this requires only one project, the technological base of which already exists. How can you resist such a temptation?
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So. Take a globe, find on it the most frustrated country with an authoritarian regime that is (legal and illegal) active in the IT, and you will know who in a few years will create a #superperson and finalize the protein-organic stage of the evolution of the universe.
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