Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/9 - Jan 10 to Jan 16 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/9 - Western Europe experiences rise or surge in #COVID19 new cases, with increasing mortality:
- Very high mort: GR (R-eff=1.29);
- High mort:UK=1.08;IT=1.39;FR=1.25;DE=1.18;FL;DK=1.13;
- Med mort: SP;AT=1.39;PT=1.28;CH=1.25;IRL;NO=1.32;BE=1.21;
- Low mort: ICL; NL;LUX; SE.

3/9 - East-Central Europe
Two #COVID19 profiles, with alarming [high] mort:
- Plateau-Landing: [Ukr; Pol; Slovk; Russia*];
- Surging-rising: Bulg=1.30 [Croat=1.27;Czech=1.13; Eston=1.3; Hung=1.13; Latv=1.22;Lith=1.30; Romn=1.51; Slovn=1.36; Serb=1.54].
*

https://twitter.com/ArielKarlinsky/status/1477531141510946818?s=20

4/9 - Africa -
Three #COVID19 profiles:
- Surging-rising: Côte d'Ivoire=1.20; Maurit=1.56; Morocco=1.56; Mozambique=1.14; Rwanda=1.13; Tunisia=1.56;
- Plateauing: Botswana=1.0; Libya=1.0; Togo=1.07;Ugand=1.03; Zambia=1.05;
- Improving: Gabon=0.9; South Africa; Namibia; Zimbabwe.

5/9 - Middle-East
Rapid and worrying surge in #COVID19 cases in Israel (R-eff=1.58) (77.7% received 1 dose). Kuwait=1.67; [Lebanon=1.34]; Oman=1.41; Qatar=1.64; Saudi Arabia=1.55; and UAE=1.23 (100%); with low [high] mortality.

6/9 - Asia & Pacific
Rapid and worrying surge in Philippines (R-eff=1.86); Mongolia=1.52; and Thailand=1.33 in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low-med mortality.
Malaysia and [Vietnam=1.08]) are plateauing [increasing], with low [high] mortality.

7/9 - Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
India (R-eff=1.73 )and Australia=1.46 are experiencing rapid and worrying surge in their #COVID19 epid activ, with low mortality.
NZ=0.97; China=0.96; Taiwan=1.31; Japan=1.25 still in their safe zones;
South Korea and Laos are landing, low mortality.

8/9 - North America -
Canada (R-eff=1.20), surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, medium mortality, 85.2% 1 dose: red (R-eff>0.90) in all Provinces.
The USA=1.17 (75.0%), rise at very high levels, very high mortality, red in all states.

9/9 - Latin America -
- Rapid and worrying surge in #COVID19 cases in the whole continent, with low-med [high] mortality:
Argentina (R-eff=1.46); [Bolivia=1.30]; Brazil=1.49; Chile=1.38; Colombia=1.45; Ecuador=1.24; Mexico=1.67; Peru=1.39; Uruguay=1.62.

10/9 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
@elisa_manetti
@AdelineDugerdil

Definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

11/9 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0