Most poli sci may agree with this. But when it comes to explaining federal policy change, policy historians tend to find plenty of important idiosyncratic individual-level factors. And structural factors don't explain as much policy change as we expect:
mattgrossmann.tumblr.com/artistsofthepo…
But individual agency does not imply lack of structure. e.g. Manchin is the pivotal vote due to structural factors.

Most proposed policy changes fail. Structure often explains what is possible, but laws still require lots of individual actions & compromises to be enacted.
The relationships among key policymakers are the most common proximate factors in successful policy change. Their opportunities are made possible by structural factors, but the actors still have to succeed.

Here is how I end Artists of the Possible:
To translate for today, structural factors explain why Manchin's preferences matter so much & those of the most liberal actors matter so little. But individuals & relationships explain whether nothing passes or how they make the trade-offs to get to something.

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More from @MattGrossmann

9 Jan
Commenting on national politics is not efficacious compared to acting in local politics, even if you are most concerned with national outcomes & electoral rules
nytimes.com/2022/01/09/opi…
But I don’t think Democratic uninvolvement in local politics is a huge issue; where they are most involved, it is often in NIMBYism & professional interests. There are people running in most winnable places & no great Republican advantage. Fundraising & volunteering are high
The biggest local representational disconnects are in rural areas:
cambridge.org/core/books/hom…

& the biggest missing local officers & candidates are non-Trumpist Republicans. Neither problem can be solved by city liberals. But nothing wrong with improving your own local governance
Read 4 tweets
19 Dec 21
Getting House & all but 1 same-party Senator on board with ~full plausible presidential agenda in 1st year is historically unusual progress. They won over the other key holdout. How did they do it? By rewriting half the bill to meet their (~ridiculous) terms. They can do it again
Pelosi had unmeetable conflicting ~plausible demands & ~managed face saving. But Schumer? He spent a month arguing with the parliamentarian & claiming a quick vote. He didn’t prepare caucus & make the cuts. They miscalculated. They need Manchin & called the wrong bluff
This statement isn’t going to help. But news here is that Manchin made a full final offer this week for 1.75T (presumably of ~permanent programs). White House didn’t accept (it was “missing key priorities”). This suggests he was more specific in private. They can take the deal
Read 5 tweets
19 Dec 21
Don’t view this as final. They have to substantially cut the bill to meet Manchin’s terms (1.75 in ~permanent programs). Everyone else’s “red lines” are not real because they prefer a reduced bill to nothing; Manchin has the leverage, some others are slow to realize
Manchin has been ~consistent since the July letter, actually come up 250B but clear he didn’t except sunsets to get to his ceiling. Many didn’t want to hear it or fell for others’ bluffs. “make him vote against it” doesn’t work with someone running to cameras to say he’s a no
Still paths to passage:
1) Biden can meet Manchin’s demands & say this is it
2) split the bill, match sections Manchin accepts with payfors

But also paths to nowhere:
1) “we’re ready to vote”
2) we’re still fighting for immigration, House bill
3) make him identify/sell the cuts
Read 4 tweets
2 Dec 21
I loved “Dawn of Everything”

Here’s the best review I’ve found:
washingtonpost.com/outlook/after-…

You do have to see it as a political project combined with an early human history & popularization of anthropology, but it shows how we can learn by questioning biases of received history
In How Social Science Got Better, I found that popularized debates make progress by bringing scholars with very different knowledge bases & assumptions into conversation. There is lots of overclaiming but it can clarify disputes. We also learn by thinking from different biases
They mostly find a lot more variation than we usually hear, across types of social organization, bases of governance, priorities, scales, & seasonality, with no global developmental sequence. Despite lots of speculation, it is mostly about how we don’t know as much as we assume
Read 4 tweets
30 Nov 21
We are building a new congressional data archive with member, district, & policymaking variables by district-year & state-year, modeled on @IPPSR’s Correlates of State Policy:
ippsr.msu.edu/public-policy/…

& @joshmccrain’s congressional data integrations:
congressdata.joshuamccrain.com/congressional_…
We are currently cataloging available data, making crosswalks, converting/aggregating bill & policymaking data to district-year, updating, & compiling all district Census data. If you have relevant datasets, suggestions, or problem notes, please reach out. We would love your help
Our goal is to make an easy-to-use interface for working with available subsets of data, such as a project on environmental or health congressional voting with relevant member & district characteristics, similar to our Shiny app for state policy:
cspp.ippsr.msu.edu/cspp/
Read 4 tweets
9 Nov 21
Good video on how many all-Dem states & cities have restrictive housing, regressive taxes, & segregated education.

But state policy changes very slowly, only partly due to partisanship, & most policies have limited effects:
mattgrossmann.tumblr.com/redstateblues
Overall, Democratic & Republican states don't perform differently across objective indicators, even though you can find polarized policies with real effects:
niskanencenter.org/do-democrats-a…

We consistently overestimate the party control -> policy change -> socio-economic outcomes path
On these 3 issues:
Housing: Dem states are more restrictive, though mostly due to local policies
Taxes: Overall, Dem states are more progressive, despite the outliers here
Education: Limited spending & equalization effects of party control, not enough to matter for outcomes
Read 4 tweets

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