Thread by @modestproposal1

this thread makes it pretty clear that housing supply situation has not improved, and thus estimates for HPA for 2022 are likely too low. given the gains of last few years, have to start to think about ramifications given another year of likely double digit HPA. so let's look.

https://twitter.com/mikesimonsen/status/1480640204369129472

Bill at @calculatedrisk has his detailed look at home prices and affordability. On this index, things are still moderately affordable but getting less so by the day.

calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/real-house-p…

On the demand side, Evercore calcs underproduction through 2025, and that's after the sever underproduction of the last decade

this population adjusted metric shows the extent of underproduction post GFC

https://twitter.com/modestproposal1/status/1479510984041635853

As mentioned in the first thread, inventory is at all time lows. Months of supply is around 2, versus a more normal market of 4-5.

Mortgage origination is basically all Prime right now. there's a small tick up in 660-720 FICO, but < 660 is still basically non existent

Probably most importantly, the composition of mortgage products is as vanilla as it gets. So you have high quality borrowers using high quality products.

I have to post this chart every time because it is that crazy. It's easy too forget what was going on in 2005 and 2006.

Anyway, HPA is going up a lot again in 2022. It will be uncomfortable because was up a lot in 2020 and 2021. But from a systemic standpoint, it's mostly good borrowers, using vanilla products, borrowing with government backed guarantees.