Some sportsbooks offer “Big 2” bets - which is the Packers OR Bucs to win the NFC, and Chiefs OR Titans to win the AFC at around -150 each.
Here is why this number is short and I think the “YES” on both is a good bet: 👇🏻
🧵
Here is why this number is short and I think the “YES” on both is a good bet: 👇🏻
🧵
Starting in the NFC, according to my numbers, GB is 2/1 or has a 50% chance to reach the Super Bowl and Tampa Bay has a 24% chance. If you add the two, since you need either one to win to hit the bet, you get a 74% Packers or Bucs win the NFC.
74% translates to -285 in American odds, which is much higher than the -150 line and the implied 40% probability. “Yes”, on the #Bucs or #Packers to win the conference is a solid bet at the current price.
It’s the same story in the AFC. My numbers have the #Chiefs at 38% and the #Titans at 31%, which is a 69% chance one of them reaches the SB. This equals -223 in US odds, making the current price of -150 way short. I am taking the, “Yes,” here also.
#NFL #SuperBowl #NFLPlayoffs
#NFL #SuperBowl #NFLPlayoffs
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