"CSTO support allowed Tokayev and his allies to hold on to power for the time being, yet it linked, perhaps inextricably, Kazakhstan’s political future to Russian President Vladimir Putin"
"In this new chapter of its political history, Kazakhstan’s relationship with the Russian Federation will undoubtedly be filtered through the lens of the authoritarian solidarity extended by Putin through CSTO intervention."
"Kazakhstani multivectorism—the foreign policy mantra of the Nazarbayev era—is now a thing of the past: as a consequence, we may reasonably expect the regime in Nur-Sultan to drop its typical reticence toward integration into the Eurasian Economic Union."
"Domestically, the Kazakhstani crisis instigated harsher authoritarian dynamics."

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More from @ulrichspeck

13 Jan
What is the German government's position on the inclusion of Nord Stream 2 into the sanctions package in case Russia further invades Ukraine?
My reading is that it's "strategic ambiguity": on the one hand, Berlin doesn't want to officially include NS2 into the list of potential sanctions, on the other hand, the message is that "all options are on the table", as @NilsSchmid (SPD) said yesterday.
@NilsSchmid This position is a compromise between a) those who want to keep Nord Stream out of the conflict with Russia -- as many in SPD do -- and those who think it can't be isolated from broader geopolitics -- as the Greens and probably FDP thinks.
Read 10 tweets
13 Jan
"... should not distract from the fact that Nato is not prepared to offer Ukraine membership. If doing so could avert a war, why not find some way to say out loud what any Nato official would say behind closed doors: that Ukraine’s membership in Nato is not being considered?"
@scharap assumes that all Moscow wants is a declaration that Ukraine is not becoming a Nato member anytime soon -- and that it would go back to the status quo ante, before the current crisis, if it gets this assurance.
@scharap He also assumes that otherwise Moscow would wage open war on Ukraine.
Read 15 tweets
12 Jan
Exactly: "the case against realist accommodation is not only ethical but practical: In the 21st century, spheres of influence neither satisfy large aggressors nor can easily be imposed on small victims."
Declaring that Ukraine won't join Nato wouldn't stop Russian aggression against Ukraine and the west, and it wouldn't stop Ukraine's resistance.
It would rather re-introduce a dangerous precedent in European politics: that bigger powers can limit the sovereignty of smaller powers by using force (or the threat of it). The rules of the game of Europe's peace order would be fundamentally changed.
Read 5 tweets
12 Jan
Dialogformate sind wichtig, aber die Machtbalance ist für den Handlungsspielraum des Kreml entscheidend.
Steht alles hier: Helmut Schmidt, Strategie des Gleichgewichts. Deutsche Friedenspolitik und die Weltmächte. Stuttgart 1969
Seite 19: "Weil eine Strategie der Kriegsvermeidung zu der Gefahr einer Prämie für denjenigen führt, der sich an ihre Prinzipien nicht hält und seine Macht zu Lasten der anderen zu erweitern trachtet, ist die Kriegsvermeidungsstrategie angewiesen auf eine Kontinuität des ...
Read 4 tweets
11 Jan
Während der Westen alles versucht, um einen erneuten Angriff Russlands auf die Ukraine zu verhindern, erklärt der SPD-Generalsekretär allen Ernstes, es gebe eine solche Gefahr nicht und sie werde nur herbeigeredet, um Nord Stream 2 zu verhindern.
Auch dass die Bedrohung Russland gegenüber der Ukraine und das Projekt Nord Stream 2 unmittelbar zusammenhängen, hat Kühnert nicht begriffen.
Read 10 tweets
10 Jan
This reveals the deeper point: it's not about Nato membership per se, it's about a neoimperial Russian sphere of domination with Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine as centerpieces.
This is dangerous for Europe:
- Ukraine won't accept to become a satellite again, which means massive conflict;
- A much bigger Russia would change the balance of power in Europe;
- Russia would be unlikely to be satisfied with Ukraine, it would put its sight on other countries
Those who think Russia has just a more or less legitime complaint about Nato, and is just concerned about its own defense, fall for the Kremlin's trap.
Read 6 tweets

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