Thread by @ulrichspeck

What is the German government's position on the inclusion of Nord Stream 2 into the sanctions package in case Russia further invades Ukraine?

My reading is that it's "strategic ambiguity": on the one hand, Berlin doesn't want to officially include NS2 into the list of potential sanctions, on the other hand, the message is that "all options are on the table", as @NilsSchmid (SPD) said yesterday.

https://twitter.com/ulrichspeck/status/1481354505530847233

@NilsSchmid This position is a compromise between a) those who want to keep Nord Stream out of the conflict with Russia -- as many in SPD do -- and those who think it can't be isolated from broader geopolitics -- as the Greens and probably FDP thinks.

@NilsSchmid It is b) a compromise between Scholz, who doesn't want to alienate the pro-NS2 camp in his party, and the US side, which would prefer a more detailed list of potential sanctions.

@NilsSchmid In theory, this is good enough: if Moscow thinks that an end to NS2 is one of the risks it faces, it will include this risk in its calculations; and the energy "special relationship" with Berlin is important to Putin.

@NilsSchmid Yet this strategic ambiguity only works if the government stays on message. There is a lot of cacophony coming from SPD; probably because Scholz has failed to put this approach into a clear message; he should urgently do this to make sure that Berlin reads from the same script.

Otherwise Moscow may conclude that the threat is not serious, and this would encourage the Kremlin to take a military risk.

Latest example of unfortunate comments from SPD: Defense minister @christinelambrecht declares that Nord Stream 2 has "no connection" with the conflict with Russia over Ukraine.

The last time when there was a showdown with Moscow over Ukraine, in 2014, Merkel took great care to stay ahead of the curve, to lead Berlin's approach and to make sure that everybody would stay on message, which included SPD (namely foreign minister Steinmeier).

Time for Scholz to take over responsibility and shape not only the policy, but also the discourse; instead of just uttering a few not very meaningful words about the conflict with Russia as he did yesterday. twitter.com/RegSprecher