Last week I told the @BostonGlobe models showed a #COVID19 peak in 1-2 weeks (i.e. later this week or next). The data are consistent with a peak happening now, but, the Globe picked a different forecast for their headline. 🤦♂️ 1/6 bostonglobe.com/2022/01/12/nat…
Wastewater data are peaking in Boston. However, as @davidlazer mentions we’re still *way* above record highs & hospitalizations will continue rising after cases peak. So things will get worse healthcare-wise. Masking & testing are vital now. #wastebeforecase @BiobotAnalytics 2/6
https://twitter.com/davidlazer/status/1481030404131983360
Cases are falling in DC, but because of surging hospitalizations that will continue to rise, the mayor has rightly implemented new emergency measures. 3/6 nbcwashington.com/news/coronavir… 
For more accurate forecasts, I’d follow groups like @utpandemics and @alexvespi. However, recent forecasts from most teams submitting to the #COVID19 Scenario Modeling Hub are consistent with an earlier peak than is quoted in the Globe. 4/6 covid19scenariomodelinghub.org
https://twitter.com/utpandemics/status/1479622374312062980
h/t to @jkbren for pointing out that the models shown in the Globe have deaths & hospitalizations peaking on about the same day, barely a week after cases. This is highly implausible. Deaths are just now peaking in S. Africa ~1 month after cases, consistent with past waves. 5/6
“Scarpino of the Rockefeller Foundation said Friday that the models he’s reviewed suggest the peak in cases is coming in the next one to two weeks, with the Northeast, from Washington, D.C., to Boston, leading the way, with cases then declining sharply.” 6/6
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