Thread by @jlarkytweets

A big WILD CARD WEEKEND thread

Going over all 6 matchups

A few key notes for each team to help you in DFS

Thread is in order of games played
LV at CIN
NE at BUF
PHI at TB
SF at DAL
PIT at KC
ARI at LAR

Let's get started 🔥🔥

⬇️⬇️⬇️

LV at CIN, 48.5 over/under, -5.5
Implied points: LV 21.5, CIN 27

My favorite way to play this game is Burrow double stacks with a mix of Mixon/Chase/Higgins as the preferred stacking options

Boyd's target depth isn't conducive to DFS. If Boyd has a good game and posts 8-80-1,

decent chance Burrow is NOT the QB that's helping you take down a tournament.

For showdown, Boyd is fine. But on the 6-game slates, I plan to be below the field on Boyd exposure.

Mixon's past 2 games he's averaged 26.5 routes and a 17% target share (7 tgt/game)

Zay Jones is

the new LV WR1 (seriously)

Past 3 weeks:
Zay: 29% tgt share, 6.3-65.7 receiving (85 airYds/game), 12.9 PPR/game
Renfrow: 18% tgt share, 4.7-43 receiving (54 airYds/game), 16.8 PPR/game

Renfrow has 4 TDs his past 3 games, that's the fantasy points difference

Even last week with

Waller back, Zay Jones ran 36 routes, had 8 tgt (24% share) and 98 air yards
Renfrow ran only 29 routes, had 5 tgt (15%) and 24 air yards

Waller was immediately the target hog upon returning with a team-leading 9 tgt and 2nd with 68 air yards. Only turned it into 2-22 but he's

only $5700 on DraftKings

Waller a strong option to pay up for on the 6-game slate

Zay Jones at $4200 and Renfrow $6000 project to be similarly popular

I'll take the cheaper guy with better usage, thank you

Jacobs' receiving role has shrunk recently, past 3 games he's running

14.7 routes/game. Richard is running 11.3 routes/game in this span.

Jacobs has a 10% tgt share during this time, but we're unlikely to see another 9 tgt game with Richard back

Past 3 games, Jacobs avg'ing 23-108 rushing so he's still a solid option

On the 6-game slate, my

favorite stack for this game is Burrow-Mixon-Chase/Higgins with Waller or Zay Jones as the run back

Burrow-Chase-Higgins will be played everywhere, so throw in Mixon and pick one of the WRs to get different

On to NE at BUF ⬇️⬇️

NE at BUF, 44 over/under, -4
Implied points: NE 20, BUF 24

I'm not avoiding any of the 6 matchups on the 6-game DFS slates, but this is likely the one I'll have the least exposure to.

Lowest game total and I don't like the Patriots players much for DFS

BUF a strong run D, yet

Damien Harris the most fantasy relevant NE player

Bit strange to stack up Josh Allen and run it back with the RB on the team projected by Vegas to lose the game

Week 18, Damien Harris was actually the workhorse (finally?)

⬇️⬇️

Harris: 29 snaps, 11 carries, 14 routes, 4 RZ opportunities
Bolden: 23 snaps, 7 carries, 12 routes, 2 RZ opps
Rhamondre: 8 snaps, 4 carries, 3 routes, 0 RZ opps

Also, Hunter Henry is now the 2nd receiving option behind Meyers, not Bourne

Stats below ⬇️⬇️

Past 3 weeks:
Meyers- 26% tgt share, 63 airYds/game
Henry- 19% tgt share, 63 airYds/game
Bourne- 15% tgt share, 26 airYds/game
Agholor- 10% tgt share, 47 airYds/game

For BUF, Emmanuel Sanders is now a full practice participant which muddies the WR pecking order

For this week,

I'm anticipating Diggs > Davis > Beasley > Knox > Sanders for targets and general fantasy production

Past 3 weeks:
Diggs: 33.5% tgt share, 122 airYds/game, 18.3 PPR/game
Davis: 22.1% tgt share, 136.5 airYds/game, 7 PPR/game

(Davis had 14 tgt in Week 18 but only 3 catches🤯)
⬇️

Singletary is a bell cow

Even with Moss mixing in, Singletary avg'ing 18 carries to Moss' 4 the past few weeks and 7.6 tgt/game to Moss' 2.3

Singletary has 21 combined RZ carries + RZ targets past 3 weeks, Moss has only 1 in this span

High value touches + workload, Singletary

just $5700 on DraftKings

Favorite way to play this game is Josh Allen double stacks with Harris or Henry as the run back

Not interested in Mac Jones for the 6-game slate, he's only Showdown viable as a play

PHI at TB ⬇️⬇️

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Anyway, on to PHI at TB ⬇️⬇️

PHI at TB, 46 over/under, -8.5
Implied points: PHI 18.75, TB 27.25

No secret that I'll be stacking Brady up like I've done every week this year...

But what is my preferred double stack this week? (answer revealed soon)

⬇️⬇️

Eagles side is fairly straightforward.

I assume Miles Sanders plays, he's the only viable PHI RB for DFS on the 6-game slate

TB a strong run D though so likely under the field on Sanders
Only viable PHI players to stack with Jalen Hurts are Smith/Goedert, who are seeing ~40%

of Hurts' pass attempts on the season

Think you pick one of Smith/Goedert as your Brady run back

Smith has 4 games this year with 19+ DraftKings pts and 3 between 22-26

Goedert has 2 games over 20 and 1 of them was over 30

The TB side ⬇️⬇️

I expect Darius Slay on Mike Evans, but even without thinking about WR/CB matchups, Gronk has had similar (if not better) usage than Evans recently

Past 3 weeks:
Gronk - 18% tgt share, 5-92 receiving, 76 airYds/game
Evans - 16% tgt share, 5-68 receiving, 83 airYds/game

The only

reason Evans has 20.8 PPR/game while Gronk has 14.2 PPR/game in this span? TDs

PHI has also allowed the 2nd most pts/game to TEs in fantasy this season

Fournette expected to return, and he is totally mispriced at $5900 on DraftKings (my favorite player on the 6-game slate) ⬇️⬇️

I'm currently projecting 17 carries, 6 targets, and 19 PPR pts for Fournette right now and tbh that target projection feels conservative if anything

Favorite way to handle this game?

Brady-Fournette-Gronk stacks, with Smith or Goedert as the run back

Tyler Johnson and

Breshad Perriman are interesting to mix in with Cyril Grayson doubtful

Both had 6+ targets this past week (1 RZ tgt for each, too)

Taking a quick break, then I'll resume this thread with SF at DAL (and then the other 2 matchups) in ~40 min

SF at DAL, 51 over/under, -3
Implied points: SF 24, DAL 27

Highest total game of the 6

Yet not necessarily the best game for DFS imo, and here's why

SF you have a run-heavy team with a weak QB, and DAL you have a team that's annoyingly run-focused at times with a very spread

out pass attack (Lamb had the highest season-long target share in DAL, yet it was 20.4% which ranked 36th in the NFL)

I do like that Dak is only the 6th most expensive QB on DraftKings though despite having the highest implied team total outside of KC/TB

Pollard expected back,

so I anticipate a fairly even touches split between Zeke ($6100) and Pollard ($5300)

The reason you pay up for Zeke is the RZ usage

2.9 RZ touches/game for Zeke this year, 1.6 per game for Pollard

Pollard more efficient everywhere, but Zeke more likely to get the TDs

For

stacking purposes, I think on a small 6-game slate both are *viable* stacked with Dak, though I'd prefer Pollard because 1) he's cheaper and 2) his game-breaking play ability is conducive to DFS. If Pollard breaks a long run or long reception, that speeds the game up and helps

the overall game environment trend even more toward a shootout.

Mainly though, I'm looking at Lamb/Cooper/Schultz as my main stacking rotation with Dak

I'll mix in Cedrick Wilson ($4400) to save salary when needed, but I think you're kind of over-paying for what he did in Week

18. $4400 is a typical Gallup salary several weeks this year, yet we know Wilson is not the caliber of player that Gallup is.

If you want to save money with your Dak stacks, I like Schultz ($5000) best, who has 6 games this year with 15+ DK pts & 3 of those games were 20+

⬇️⬇️

Also of note, SF the #2 run D via @fboutsiders DVOA, yet they're middle of the pack with pass D

That tells me I probably want to be below the field on Zeke.

With SF, my favorite play is Elijah Mitchell, who has 21+ carries each of his past 5 games, & 11 RZ carries in that span

DAL a strong D against RBs for fantasy points, but that's mainly because RBs only scored 10 total TDs on the year against them.

The SF skill player I'm least interested in at cost is Kittle ($6000), when there's Kelce/Gronk/Waller/Schultz/Goedert/Ertz/etc on the slate.

Kittle

has taken a backseat to Deebo/Aiyuk/Jennings recently

Past 3 games (avg):
Deebo- 6.7 carries, 7.7 tgt (28% share), 50 airYds, 24.8 PPR
Aiyuk- 6 tgt (22.4%), 62 airYds, 14.7 PPR
Kittle- 4 tgt (13.8%), 16.7 airYds, 4.9 PPR
Jauan Jennings- 4.7 tgt (16%), 56 airYds, 11.9 PPR

Now,

we've seen Kittle break the slate multiple times this year, so I wouldn't recommend a full fade if playing high volume, but the numbers below are mildly concerning

Past 3 games:
Deebo- 48 snaps, 27.7 routes
Aiyuk- 56.3 snaps, 29 routes
Kittle- 60 snaps, 25.7 routes

Looks like

more blocking snaps for Kittle the last few weeks.

If playing Jimmy G, I recommend a double stack, since I think he only gets there in DFS with 300 yards and likely 3 TDs

With Dak, I'd double stack as well

Preferred way to play this one is Dak doubles with Mitchell + 1 of

Aiyuk/Deebo/Kittle as a run back

On the 6-game slate, this will be a popular game due to Vegas game total, so a 5-player onslaught stack/run back helps you get different from the field

On to PIT at KC ⬇️⬇️

PIT at KC, 46, -12.5
Implied points: 16.75 PIT, 29.25 KC

KC by far the biggest favorite on the slate, and the highest implied team total as well

Obviously, you're stacking Mahomes and running it back with Najee or Diontae

But let's go a bit deeper ⬇️⬇️

PIT is a bad offense, but... they're consolidated

Diontae gets nearly 30% of the team's targets and Najee gets nearly 100% of the RB touches

Claypool has a respectable 18.5% tgt share on the season, & Freiermuth is at 13% overall but closer to 17% the 2nd half of the year once

Ebron went on IR

If you want the sneaky PIT run back for your Mahomes stacks, it's Ray-Ray McCloud

Past 3 games (per game averages):
Claypool- 16.6% tgt share, 31.7 recYds, 67 airYds, 1.3 RZ tgt
McCloud- 20.4% tgt share, 32.3 recYds, 57 airYds, 2.3 RZ tgt

Claypool is $4800 and

McCloud is only $3700

Sure the targets are more valuable per target for Claypool due to target depth and his athleticism, but McCloud has the RZ snaps needed for DFS viability

If stacking Big Ben to save salary at QB, I think you pay up for Diontae + 1 of Najee/Claypool/

Freiermuth/McCloud

But I don't expect to have many PIT stacks... maybe 5 max out of my 150 lineups

Mainly, I'm targeting KC

On large slates with 10+ games, you can't go Mahomes-Tyreek-Kelce because of salary

But, on a smaller slate with both priced down, it's a very viable

(but likely popular) stack.

Mahomes ($7400, QB2) and Tyreek ($7100, WR5) and Kelce ($6700, TE1) are all priced well. It's rare to see Hill the 5th priced WR, he's usually top-3 if not top-2

If I'm placing prop bets, I'm probably taking Hill UNDERS due to the heel injury, but in

DFS (where I'm chasing unlikely BOOM outcomes), I'm happily jamming in an under-priced Hill into lots of lineups

The way to get different with Mahomes stacks is with Darrel Williams (7 games this year with 4+ targets) or with Byron Pringle.

Darrel is likely going to be quite

unpopular as a DFS play with CEH likely returning, yet Darrel has still had high tgt games + GL carries in games they've overlapped this year

They're both around $5500, but my preference is Darrel, who has demonstrated more upside this year + he isn't coming off an injury ⬇️⬇️

In Week 16 when Tyreek played less than 50% of the snaps, it was Pringle who was nearly an every down player and posted 6-75-2 on 7 targets

Seems like he's the high upside play if Tyreek ends up being limited by the heel injury, and Pringle is only $3900 on DraftKings

To review

Mahomes double stacks, and I'm mainly rotating Darrel/Tyreek/Pringle/Kelce

2 favorite run backs are Najee or Diontae, but I think McCloud is a sneaky salary saver who nobody will be playing

Before turning to ARI at LAR, reminder this DFS thread was entirely FREE to read, and

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Dynasty, DFS, best ball, redraft, etc

ARI at LAR ⬇️⬇️

ARI at LAR, 49.5 over/under, -4
Implied points: ARI 22.75, LAR 26.75

Out of all 6 games, this is likely the game that'll have the most QB/stack exposure in my DFS portfolio this weekend

Close spread + 2 QBs with fairly obvious stack options

Kyler's price is at a season-low

$7200, yet he's averaging just over 40 pass attempts/game and 5.5 rush attempts/game these last 4 games without Hopkins.

The usage is there for a big fantasy performance when Kyler's passing AND running more than the average QB

I'm assuming Conner and Edmonds play, and think

both are allowed in Kyler stacks, though I'd lean Edmonds due to the pass-catching role and hope he catches a TD.

However, I prefer to pick 2 of Ertz/Kirk/Green to pair with Kyler

Stats below ⬇️⬇️

Past 3 games (all per game avgs):

Ertz- 27.8% tgt share, 7.3-60 receiving, 85 airYds, 1.7 RZ
Kirk- 18.4% tgt share, 5-57 receiving, 86 airYds, 0.7 RZ tgt
Green - 15.7% tgt share, 2.7-43 receiving, 76 airYds, 1 RZ tgt

Together, that's 62% of Kyler's pass attempts going to them

On the LAR side, if I'm playing Stafford in a lineup, Kupp is practically an auto-play

Hard to see Stafford having a big fantasy day without Kupp going over 100 yards + a TD

For your Stafford double stacks, I'd look mainly at Michel or OBJ

Michel has a strong role and I think

this game could get really high-scoring with 2 fast-paced teams

Could see 2 TDs for Michel and 3 passing for Stafford, which helps you take down a tournament with them stacked

OBJ has a solid target share, solid RZ role, and decent target depth

He's also OBJ, much more

talented than Higbee/Van Jefferson

Speaking of them, Higbee has commanded more targets than Van Jefferson (and OBJ) of late

Van Jefferson is the guy I'm less likely to stack with Stafford

Past 3 games ⬇️⬇️

Higbee- 30 routes, 22.3% tgt share, 5.7-55 receiving, 38 airYds, 15.2 PPR
Van Jeff- 26.3 routes, 13.3% tgt, 2.3-33 receiving, 56 airYds, 5.7 PPR

Favorite 2 ways to onslaught this game?
Kyler-Ertz-Kirk-Michel-Kupp and Stafford-Kupp-Higbee-Edmonds-Kirk

Thanks for reading & gnite

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