Going over all 6 matchups

A few key notes for each team to help you in DFS

Thread is in order of games played

Let's get started 🔥🔥

LV at CIN, 48.5 over/under, -5.5
Implied points: LV 21.5, CIN 27

My favorite way to play this game is Burrow double stacks with a mix of Mixon/Chase/Higgins as the preferred stacking options

Boyd's target depth isn't conducive to DFS. If Boyd has a good game and posts 8-80-1,
decent chance Burrow is NOT the QB that's helping you take down a tournament.

For showdown, Boyd is fine. But on the 6-game slates, I plan to be below the field on Boyd exposure.

Mixon's past 2 games he's averaged 26.5 routes and a 17% target share (7 tgt/game)

Zay Jones is
the new LV WR1 (seriously)

Past 3 weeks:
Zay: 29% tgt share, 6.3-65.7 receiving (85 airYds/game), 12.9 PPR/game
Renfrow: 18% tgt share, 4.7-43 receiving (54 airYds/game), 16.8 PPR/game

Renfrow has 4 TDs his past 3 games, that's the fantasy points difference

Even last week with
Waller back, Zay Jones ran 36 routes, had 8 tgt (24% share) and 98 air yards
Renfrow ran only 29 routes, had 5 tgt (15%) and 24 air yards

Waller was immediately the target hog upon returning with a team-leading 9 tgt and 2nd with 68 air yards. Only turned it into 2-22 but he's
only $5700 on DraftKings

Waller a strong option to pay up for on the 6-game slate

Zay Jones at $4200 and Renfrow $6000 project to be similarly popular

I'll take the cheaper guy with better usage, thank you

Jacobs' receiving role has shrunk recently, past 3 games he's running
14.7 routes/game. Richard is running 11.3 routes/game in this span.

Jacobs has a 10% tgt share during this time, but we're unlikely to see another 9 tgt game with Richard back

Past 3 games, Jacobs avg'ing 23-108 rushing so he's still a solid option

On the 6-game slate, my
favorite stack for this game is Burrow-Mixon-Chase/Higgins with Waller or Zay Jones as the run back

Burrow-Chase-Higgins will be played everywhere, so throw in Mixon and pick one of the WRs to get different

On to NE at BUF ⬇️⬇️
NE at BUF, 44 over/under, -4
Implied points: NE 20, BUF 24

I'm not avoiding any of the 6 matchups on the 6-game DFS slates, but this is likely the one I'll have the least exposure to.

Lowest game total and I don't like the Patriots players much for DFS

BUF a strong run D, yet
Damien Harris the most fantasy relevant NE player

Bit strange to stack up Josh Allen and run it back with the RB on the team projected by Vegas to lose the game

Week 18, Damien Harris was actually the workhorse (finally?)

Harris: 29 snaps, 11 carries, 14 routes, 4 RZ opportunities
Bolden: 23 snaps, 7 carries, 12 routes, 2 RZ opps
Rhamondre: 8 snaps, 4 carries, 3 routes, 0 RZ opps

Also, Hunter Henry is now the 2nd receiving option behind Meyers, not Bourne

Stats below ⬇️⬇️
Past 3 weeks:
Meyers- 26% tgt share, 63 airYds/game
Henry- 19% tgt share, 63 airYds/game
Bourne- 15% tgt share, 26 airYds/game
Agholor- 10% tgt share, 47 airYds/game

For BUF, Emmanuel Sanders is now a full practice participant which muddies the WR pecking order

For this week,
I'm anticipating Diggs > Davis > Beasley > Knox > Sanders for targets and general fantasy production

Past 3 weeks:
Diggs: 33.5% tgt share, 122 airYds/game, 18.3 PPR/game
Davis: 22.1% tgt share, 136.5 airYds/game, 7 PPR/game

(Davis had 14 tgt in Week 18 but only 3 catches🤯)
Singletary is a bell cow

Even with Moss mixing in, Singletary avg'ing 18 carries to Moss' 4 the past few weeks and 7.6 tgt/game to Moss' 2.3

Singletary has 21 combined RZ carries + RZ targets past 3 weeks, Moss has only 1 in this span

High value touches + workload, Singletary
just $5700 on DraftKings

Favorite way to play this game is Josh Allen double stacks with Harris or Henry as the run back

Not interested in Mac Jones for the 6-game slate, he's only Showdown viable as a play

PHI at TB ⬇️⬇️
Quick note: If you're finding this content helpful, likes/retweets greatly help me out and are much appreciated

They also help me continue to provide this info FREE on Twitter when it's usually the type of content other sites keep behind a paywall

Anyway, on to PHI at TB ⬇️⬇️
PHI at TB, 46 over/under, -8.5
Implied points: PHI 18.75, TB 27.25

No secret that I'll be stacking Brady up like I've done every week this year...

But what is my preferred double stack this week? (answer revealed soon)

Eagles side is fairly straightforward.

I assume Miles Sanders plays, he's the only viable PHI RB for DFS on the 6-game slate

TB a strong run D though so likely under the field on Sanders
Only viable PHI players to stack with Jalen Hurts are Smith/Goedert, who are seeing ~40%
of Hurts' pass attempts on the season

Think you pick one of Smith/Goedert as your Brady run back

Smith has 4 games this year with 19+ DraftKings pts and 3 between 22-26

Goedert has 2 games over 20 and 1 of them was over 30

The TB side ⬇️⬇️
I expect Darius Slay on Mike Evans, but even without thinking about WR/CB matchups, Gronk has had similar (if not better) usage than Evans recently

Past 3 weeks:
Gronk - 18% tgt share, 5-92 receiving, 76 airYds/game
Evans - 16% tgt share, 5-68 receiving, 83 airYds/game

The only
reason Evans has 20.8 PPR/game while Gronk has 14.2 PPR/game in this span? TDs

PHI has also allowed the 2nd most pts/game to TEs in fantasy this season

Fournette expected to return, and he is totally mispriced at $5900 on DraftKings (my favorite player on the 6-game slate) ⬇️⬇️
I'm currently projecting 17 carries, 6 targets, and 19 PPR pts for Fournette right now and tbh that target projection feels conservative if anything

Favorite way to handle this game?

Brady-Fournette-Gronk stacks, with Smith or Goedert as the run back

Tyler Johnson and
Breshad Perriman are interesting to mix in with Cyril Grayson doubtful

Both had 6+ targets this past week (1 RZ tgt for each, too)

Taking a quick break, then I'll resume this thread with SF at DAL (and then the other 2 matchups) in ~40 min
SF at DAL, 51 over/under, -3
Implied points: SF 24, DAL 27

Highest total game of the 6

Yet not necessarily the best game for DFS imo, and here's why

SF you have a run-heavy team with a weak QB, and DAL you have a team that's annoyingly run-focused at times with a very spread
out pass attack (Lamb had the highest season-long target share in DAL, yet it was 20.4% which ranked 36th in the NFL)

I do like that Dak is only the 6th most expensive QB on DraftKings though despite having the highest implied team total outside of KC/TB

Pollard expected back,
so I anticipate a fairly even touches split between Zeke ($6100) and Pollard ($5300)

The reason you pay up for Zeke is the RZ usage

2.9 RZ touches/game for Zeke this year, 1.6 per game for Pollard

Pollard more efficient everywhere, but Zeke more likely to get the TDs

stacking purposes, I think on a small 6-game slate both are *viable* stacked with Dak, though I'd prefer Pollard because 1) he's cheaper and 2) his game-breaking play ability is conducive to DFS. If Pollard breaks a long run or long reception, that speeds the game up and helps
the overall game environment trend even more toward a shootout.

Mainly though, I'm looking at Lamb/Cooper/Schultz as my main stacking rotation with Dak

I'll mix in Cedrick Wilson ($4400) to save salary when needed, but I think you're kind of over-paying for what he did in Week
18. $4400 is a typical Gallup salary several weeks this year, yet we know Wilson is not the caliber of player that Gallup is.

If you want to save money with your Dak stacks, I like Schultz ($5000) best, who has 6 games this year with 15+ DK pts & 3 of those games were 20+

Also of note, SF the #2 run D via @fboutsiders DVOA, yet they're middle of the pack with pass D

That tells me I probably want to be below the field on Zeke.

With SF, my favorite play is Elijah Mitchell, who has 21+ carries each of his past 5 games, & 11 RZ carries in that span
DAL a strong D against RBs for fantasy points, but that's mainly because RBs only scored 10 total TDs on the year against them.

The SF skill player I'm least interested in at cost is Kittle ($6000), when there's Kelce/Gronk/Waller/Schultz/Goedert/Ertz/etc on the slate.

has taken a backseat to Deebo/Aiyuk/Jennings recently

Past 3 games (avg):
Deebo- 6.7 carries, 7.7 tgt (28% share), 50 airYds, 24.8 PPR
Aiyuk- 6 tgt (22.4%), 62 airYds, 14.7 PPR
Kittle- 4 tgt (13.8%), 16.7 airYds, 4.9 PPR
Jauan Jennings- 4.7 tgt (16%), 56 airYds, 11.9 PPR

we've seen Kittle break the slate multiple times this year, so I wouldn't recommend a full fade if playing high volume, but the numbers below are mildly concerning

Past 3 games:
Deebo- 48 snaps, 27.7 routes
Aiyuk- 56.3 snaps, 29 routes
Kittle- 60 snaps, 25.7 routes

Looks like
more blocking snaps for Kittle the last few weeks.

If playing Jimmy G, I recommend a double stack, since I think he only gets there in DFS with 300 yards and likely 3 TDs

With Dak, I'd double stack as well

Preferred way to play this one is Dak doubles with Mitchell + 1 of
Aiyuk/Deebo/Kittle as a run back

On the 6-game slate, this will be a popular game due to Vegas game total, so a 5-player onslaught stack/run back helps you get different from the field

On to PIT at KC ⬇️⬇️
PIT at KC, 46, -12.5
Implied points: 16.75 PIT, 29.25 KC

KC by far the biggest favorite on the slate, and the highest implied team total as well

Obviously, you're stacking Mahomes and running it back with Najee or Diontae

But let's go a bit deeper ⬇️⬇️
PIT is a bad offense, but... they're consolidated

Diontae gets nearly 30% of the team's targets and Najee gets nearly 100% of the RB touches

Claypool has a respectable 18.5% tgt share on the season, & Freiermuth is at 13% overall but closer to 17% the 2nd half of the year once
Ebron went on IR

If you want the sneaky PIT run back for your Mahomes stacks, it's Ray-Ray McCloud

Past 3 games (per game averages):
Claypool- 16.6% tgt share, 31.7 recYds, 67 airYds, 1.3 RZ tgt
McCloud- 20.4% tgt share, 32.3 recYds, 57 airYds, 2.3 RZ tgt

Claypool is $4800 and
McCloud is only $3700

Sure the targets are more valuable per target for Claypool due to target depth and his athleticism, but McCloud has the RZ snaps needed for DFS viability

If stacking Big Ben to save salary at QB, I think you pay up for Diontae + 1 of Najee/Claypool/

But I don't expect to have many PIT stacks... maybe 5 max out of my 150 lineups

Mainly, I'm targeting KC

On large slates with 10+ games, you can't go Mahomes-Tyreek-Kelce because of salary

But, on a smaller slate with both priced down, it's a very viable
(but likely popular) stack.

Mahomes ($7400, QB2) and Tyreek ($7100, WR5) and Kelce ($6700, TE1) are all priced well. It's rare to see Hill the 5th priced WR, he's usually top-3 if not top-2

If I'm placing prop bets, I'm probably taking Hill UNDERS due to the heel injury, but in
DFS (where I'm chasing unlikely BOOM outcomes), I'm happily jamming in an under-priced Hill into lots of lineups

The way to get different with Mahomes stacks is with Darrel Williams (7 games this year with 4+ targets) or with Byron Pringle.

Darrel is likely going to be quite
unpopular as a DFS play with CEH likely returning, yet Darrel has still had high tgt games + GL carries in games they've overlapped this year

They're both around $5500, but my preference is Darrel, who has demonstrated more upside this year + he isn't coming off an injury ⬇️⬇️
In Week 16 when Tyreek played less than 50% of the snaps, it was Pringle who was nearly an every down player and posted 6-75-2 on 7 targets

Seems like he's the high upside play if Tyreek ends up being limited by the heel injury, and Pringle is only $3900 on DraftKings

To review
Mahomes double stacks, and I'm mainly rotating Darrel/Tyreek/Pringle/Kelce

2 favorite run backs are Najee or Diontae, but I think McCloud is a sneaky salary saver who nobody will be playing

Before turning to ARI at LAR, reminder this DFS thread was entirely FREE to read, and
your likes/retweets are greatly appreciated as a show of support.

If you are compelled to hand me money, my Twitter tip jar is open, but I'd prefer if you go to PlayerProfiler.com & check out our subscription options.

Dynasty, DFS, best ball, redraft, etc

ARI at LAR ⬇️⬇️
ARI at LAR, 49.5 over/under, -4
Implied points: ARI 22.75, LAR 26.75

Out of all 6 games, this is likely the game that'll have the most QB/stack exposure in my DFS portfolio this weekend

Close spread + 2 QBs with fairly obvious stack options

Kyler's price is at a season-low
$7200, yet he's averaging just over 40 pass attempts/game and 5.5 rush attempts/game these last 4 games without Hopkins.

The usage is there for a big fantasy performance when Kyler's passing AND running more than the average QB

I'm assuming Conner and Edmonds play, and think
both are allowed in Kyler stacks, though I'd lean Edmonds due to the pass-catching role and hope he catches a TD.

However, I prefer to pick 2 of Ertz/Kirk/Green to pair with Kyler

Stats below ⬇️⬇️
Past 3 games (all per game avgs):

Ertz- 27.8% tgt share, 7.3-60 receiving, 85 airYds, 1.7 RZ
Kirk- 18.4% tgt share, 5-57 receiving, 86 airYds, 0.7 RZ tgt
Green - 15.7% tgt share, 2.7-43 receiving, 76 airYds, 1 RZ tgt

Together, that's 62% of Kyler's pass attempts going to them
On the LAR side, if I'm playing Stafford in a lineup, Kupp is practically an auto-play

Hard to see Stafford having a big fantasy day without Kupp going over 100 yards + a TD

For your Stafford double stacks, I'd look mainly at Michel or OBJ

Michel has a strong role and I think
this game could get really high-scoring with 2 fast-paced teams

Could see 2 TDs for Michel and 3 passing for Stafford, which helps you take down a tournament with them stacked

OBJ has a solid target share, solid RZ role, and decent target depth

He's also OBJ, much more
talented than Higbee/Van Jefferson

Speaking of them, Higbee has commanded more targets than Van Jefferson (and OBJ) of late

Van Jefferson is the guy I'm less likely to stack with Stafford

Past 3 games ⬇️⬇️
Higbee- 30 routes, 22.3% tgt share, 5.7-55 receiving, 38 airYds, 15.2 PPR
Van Jeff- 26.3 routes, 13.3% tgt, 2.3-33 receiving, 56 airYds, 5.7 PPR

Favorite 2 ways to onslaught this game?
Kyler-Ertz-Kirk-Michel-Kupp and Stafford-Kupp-Higbee-Edmonds-Kirk

Thanks for reading & gnite
For the snobs that want to know the Twitter thread length before reading, it's 54 tweets

Go suck an egg, you heathens

And grow a proper attention span!

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Josh Larky ↗️

Josh Larky ↗️ Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @jlarkytweets

29 Dec 21
The BIG Week 16 thread is HERE

1-2 observations for EVERY team

Advanced stats and actionable info

A few players' usage even surprised me 🤫

All advice geared toward winning your fantasy championship in Week 17 🔥

Let's begin with the Cardinals ⬇️⬇️⬇️
James Conner OUT Week 16, already a game-time decision Week 17

Even if Conner plays, start Edmonds in your FF championship

Week 16
Edmonds - 59 snaps, 16-56-1 rushing, 19 routes, 9 tgt, 8-71 receiving, 26.7 PPR
Jonathan Ward - 9 snaps, 1 carry, 3 routes, 0 tgt

Bell. Cow.

ARI projected to lose on the road against DAL, so great game script for Edmonds to handle more touches than Conner.

Other ARI notes

Zach Ertz led all ARI players in Week 16 routes and targets

Kirk had 3x the targets and 7x the receptions of AJ Green in Week 16

On to ATL ⬇️⬇️
Read 68 tweets
15 Dec 21
The BIG Week 14 Recap thread is HERE

1-2 observations for every team from Week 14

Actionable info for Week 15 onward

Let's begin as always with the Cardinals, and the news that Hopkins is most likely OUT for the rest of the season

How does this affect the other ARI WRs? ⬇️⬇️
Week 14 vs LAR

AJ Green - 37 routes, 10 tgt, 7-102-0 (159 air)
Kirk - 33 routes, 6 tgt, 3-86-0 (136 air)
Ertz - 36 routes, 7 tgt, 5-42-0 (33 air)
Rondale - 25 routes, 4 tgt, 3-5-0 (18 air)

Green/Kirk/Ertz all strong starts without Hopkins, Rondale someone to monitor for ⬇️⬇️
a role change with Hopkins OUT.

Hopkins ran 45 routes, 12 tgt, 5-54-0 (176 air) in Week 14, so definitely lots of potential work up for grabs.

Week 15 projected target shares
Kirk - 22%
Green - 20%
Ertz - 17%
Rondale - 14%

On to ATL ⬇️⬇️
Read 65 tweets
25 Nov 21
The BIG Week 11 recap thread

1-2 observations for EVERY team from Week 11

Advanced stats, actionable info, etc.

Let's start with ARI:

Rondale Moore's role is basically that of a pass-catching RB

In Week 11, he played 33 snaps, ran 21 routes, and was targeted on OVER half of
them (!) 11 tgt, 11-51-0 on those 21 routes

Totaled 18 air yards, for an aDOT of 1.64 🥶

Very unique usage, and assuming Hopkins comes back after their Week 12 bye, unlikely he sees this volume again. Bench stash, maybe

Conversely, Zach Ertz is having a surprisingly great ⬇️⬇️

After 9 tgts, and 8-88-2 in Week 11, Ertz' full season numbers are reminiscent of pre-2020

In 2021, his 2.16 yards per route run is 7th at the TE position, and he's averaging 13.5 fantasy points per game in 5 games with ARI.

Let's move on to ATL ⬇️⬇️
Read 81 tweets
22 Nov 21
First Mover (DFS and Player Props with Josh Larky) twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1…
WOOOOO!!!! That was a FUN show

Who knew getting up at 5am to prep for the 6am live stream could end well?!
Fast-forward to 4:30 for the start of the show 🔥
Read 4 tweets
10 Nov 21

Below, find 1-2 observations for each team from Week 9 as I work on Week 10 projections

Let's start with Arizona

Chase Edmonds went down early, and James Conner was an absolute BELL COW

Conner- 52 snaps, 21 carries, 15 routes, 5 targets (cont.)

for a 19% tgt share, and 5 RZ opportunities

Eno Benjamin played 17 snaps, had 9 carries, and ran 2 routes with no targets

Eno is a priority pickup due to his all-purpose skillset and Conner's lengthy injury history

Edmonds out most, if not all, of the FF season

On to ATL ⬇️⬇️
ATL routes (targets) breakdown:

Russell Gage - 26 (8)
Tajae Sharpe - 26 (1)
Kyle Pitts - 23 (7)
Cordarrelle Patterson - 20 (6)
Olamide Zaccheaus - 16 (3)
Hayden Hurst - 11 (3)
Mike Davis - 9 (2)

It's unlikely Tajae Sharpe is the routes run leader again after this showing...⬇️⬇️
Read 46 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!


0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy


3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!