Thread by @GoodwinMJ

If Johnson goes, the realignment goes

What do I mean by this? For the last 20 yrs, Britain (& other Western states) has been in an unfolding political realignment -an enduring shift in people's political loyalties which is mainly rooted in their education, age and above all their cultural values

It is helpful to think about realignments in terms of structure & agency, the underlying structural change which bring them about (education, class, age, etc.) but also the agents who mobilise them into politics (leaders, movements, etc.)

The Conservatives dominated the last decade and the Brexiteers won bc of two things. 1. Structures in British society working to their advantage, of which the marginalisation of workers, non-grads & cultural conservatives was the most important, and ...

2. Competent, charismatic & effective agents who pulled this structural change into politics. Farage was key (no Farage, no UKIP), as was Boris Johnson in 2016. Both had a major impact on pulling the realignment into politics. We showed this here
cambridge.org/core/books/bre…

These trends were underway before Theresa May, she capitalised on them but ultimately proved unable to push them over the line. Structures remained v favourable for Cons but the agent was, well, a bit naff. The realignment continued to unfold but was not maximised

In 2019 Johnson then put it on steroids. If you look at Lab -> Con switchers, they absolutely loved Johnson (& distrusted politics). Bizarrely, he was the anti-establishment establishment candidate who pushed through realignment (though it's still not complete)

Until 6 months ago it was still in place. Very clear & coherent electorate for Cons (albeit v different than Cameron's electorate) & an agent who appeared in line with it. Hence Hartlepool in 2021 & 2021 locals. Johnson was still v appealing in areas most Cons cannot reach

If Johnson goes, which depending on your view is either possible or likely, structural conditions for the new conservatism will remain for, say, 2-3 elections but who is agent who cd have same kind of econ + cultural appeal as Johnson among workers, non-grads & true blue tories?

Sunak? It's poss. But new con voters are looking for a LOT more than traditional fiscal conservatism or Metro Liberal Conservatism 2.0. I'm not sure i've heard Sunak say anything about the cultural axis in politics -freedom, history, identity, belonging, etc etc, Have you?

Truss? Poss. But again never underestimate extent to which most voters have no idea who these ppl are or what they believe. I still meet voters in focus groups who don't know who Starmer is. Any new Con leader wd need to do three things ...

1. Start new conversation with new conservative voters which takes long time 2. Speak LOUDLY to the realignment (forget pivots back to 1980s, this is new era), 3. HOPE they have something similar to Boris circa 2019-2021 appeal otherwise Red Wall collapses & then Cons are toast

The only way forward for Cons now until mid/late 2020s is to lean INTO realignment. Chance of winning back Remainia at next election? Zero. Zilch. My own view is new Con voters wd give Johnson a second chance if he did a few things (tho not saying he think is capable of it!) ...

Go to Red Wall & tell country he is sorry (properly). Jan 26 is end of crisis day, restrictions go. Declare endemic asap. Is time to focus on getting UK back on track. Turn up volume massively on his original msg & dump irrelevant metro stuff. Be agent he promised to be.