Now what? Diplomacy looks to be a dead-end & the U.S. & West have done little on deterrence. Russia's offensive against Ukraine will be the largest in Europe since World War II & there is nothing effective being done to avert it. Start working contingencies & arm Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1481602625586008067
The USG should have started with an engagement (diplomacy) & pressure track. When paired, the pressure track would aid the possibility of dissuading the coming Russian offensive. Instead, the West went all-in on diplomacy, absent a display of hard power. It was destined to fail.
The pressure track, still has a small, possibly of being effective. The intent is to avoid the kind of war that is likely to drag the U.S. into a conflict (e.g. World War II). What to do: 1) Send troops to Eastern Europe to reassure allies and help with refugees coming from Ukr.
2) Arm Ukraine with defensive lethal aid (air & coastal defense, electronic warfare, & anti-armor; 3) coax Sweden & Finland into initial talks on joining NATO; 4) legislate sanction to snap in as soon as Russia escalates; 5) consider NATO (not U.S.) deployments to west Ukraine.
A major war in Europe would be a disaster for the Biden admin. On the hells of the Afghanistan withdrawal fiasco, this would kill hopes of dems holding Congress in 22 & be a disaster for the 24 election cycle. Preservation of the Republic necessitates Biden gets this one right.
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