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Jack Margolin Profile picture
@Jack_Mrgln
Jan 13, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
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The Foundation for Defense of National Values - sanctioned by Treasury for its role in US election interference - has published the results of its recent polling in #Mali.

FZNC sent Maksim Shugalei to Mali late last year.
They claim that their 4,300 respondents generally feel more positively about the direction of the country since June of last year
They also report negative views of MINUSMA and French contingents in Mali
… and very positive attitudes towards Putin.
They also claim to have observed substantial increase in popular support for Assimi Goita - given their past activity, this is more valuable in telling us FZNC’s and it’s Russian patrons preferences

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More from @Jack_Mrgln

Jack Margolin Profile picture
Jan 24
In an odd twist, the Russian IL-76 RA-78830, originally reported as the one shot down over Belgorod, was in fact en route to Syria and *possibly* the aircraft carrying Russian fighters for ‘Africa Corps’ to Burkina Faso.


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Caveats here:

- receiver limitations means we can’t see see an IL-76 making the trip all the way to Ouagadougou, have to make inferences
- Africa Initiative, ru propaganda outlet claims that “Africa Corps” arrived with 100 personnel, arms, and vehicles in Burkina at 2 PM.
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- Africa Initiative posted early photos of the aircraft loading in Ru. These images could be Chkalovsky, but unconfirmed

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Read 9 tweets
Jack Margolin Profile picture
Jan 12
This week marks a year since Wagner took Soledar in a bloody, protracted battle that has become one of the more important moments in the collective mythology of Russian PMCs. Brief thread on Soledar and some of the commanders involved.

1/
Like in Bakhmut to the south, Soledar was a grinding battle of artillery and urban combat, and a flashpoint in tensions between Wagner and the MoD, with both claiming to captured the town in January of 2023. Soledar was obliterated in the process.

2/
rferl.org/a/russian-forc…
Prigozhin and the broader Wagner info community recognized Anton 'Lotos' Elizarov as the commander of Wagner forces at Soledar. Elizarov was increasingly presented as a mouthpiece for Wagner in this period. He survived the mutiny and Prigozhin's death.

3/ Image
Read 11 tweets
Jack Margolin Profile picture
Sep 30, 2023
More videos of Prigozhin’s last trip to Africa, where he travels with Utkin. They visit the CAR and meet people like Dmitri Sytiy, Zombie, travel to Mali to meet Lotus. Prigozhin personally hands out aid to locals.
Here he travels through the CAR, taking with Boris “Zombie” Nizhevenok, an assault detachment command, and meets with local partners.
He flies to Mali, where he meets with Anton “Lotus” Elizarov, who led the assault of Soledar. He is rumored to be “Utkin’s deputy,” responsible for resolving Wagner’s future after Prigozhin died, but there is little hard evidence.
Read 5 tweets
Jack Margolin Profile picture
Aug 25, 2023
The plane that Prigozhin died aboard, RA-02795, has a remarkable story.

1/ Image
Many Russia watchers know it better as M-SAAN, which carried Russian military officials including the Commander of the Black Sea Fleet, Igor Osipov, to Sudan a week after the revolution that toppled Bashir



2/occrp.org/en/investigati…
It also ferried the Deputy Commander of the RSF and the Deputy Minister of Defense of Sudan to Russia according to an investigation by @OCCRP and @novaya_gazeta. Other passengers were Sudan's UN ambassador, Pavel Prigozhin, Wagner fighters.



3/novayagazeta.ru/articles/2019/…
Read 7 tweets
Jack Margolin Profile picture
Aug 24, 2023
I started working on Russian illicit networks in 2014, PMCs in 2016. Wagner played a central role in that work, which has meant about 5-6 years of following Prigozhin and Utkin. The world is better place without them, Wagner will change fundamentally, but PMCs aren’t going away.
Wagner fought alongside other Russian “PMCs” in Ukraine and Syria. They fought alongside Sudanese, Syrian mercenaries in Libya, at the same time as an American PMC tried to close a deal with their client, Haftar. They were pushed out of Mozambique by SA PMCs.
Wagner is pretty distinct from most PMCs on the global market (analogies are helpful but only go so far) but it is a signal of the trends in how authoritarian states will leverage semi-private enterprise to achieve their ends, especially where crime or violence are involved
Read 4 tweets
Jack Margolin Profile picture
Jul 9, 2023
Some considerations that I haven’t seen discussed in as much detail that are important for the “future of Wagner” conjecture, and what it means for Russian operations in Ukraine, Syria, Africa.

1/
A) do commanders of assault detachments and platoons stay, with or without Prigozhin? This is the core of the human capital of Wagner, a major pillar of competency and identity.

2/
(Also important for relationships with local forces and interlocutors in places like the CAR or Mali)

2.5/
Read 15 tweets

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