🧵 BC PH modelling report on Jan 14 said "Virus concentration in wastewater peaked in first week of January and correlates with COVID-19 case counts across FHA and VCH".
"infections are likely to have reached their peak"
news.gov.bc.ca/files/14.01.22… (1/n)
Also "BC's case trajectory so far is consistent with that observed in other jurisdictions.." (2/n)
But with much reduced PCR testing starting Dec 23 (Vancouver) & Dec 30 (Fraser Health), and very high % positivity (40%+), the reported case counts do Not reflect the current situation. (Rapid tests are not reported) (3/n)
Wastewater Covid-19 virus concentration in Greater Vancouver went UP 8x-19x between Dec 20 - Jan 5, while officially reported cases Dropped during the same time frame (due to reduced testing)
% of public-funded tests testing positive in Greater Vancouver increased from 20%'s to 40%'s from Dec 20 to Jan 10, reflecting significant under-testing.
Also, by limiting PCR to > 65, HCW, living in group settings, unvaccinated, or told to be tested, the reported results only reflect a small group of population. (We can see older population getting over-represented starting late-Dec when RAT replaced PCR). h/t @vb_jens (6/n)
Re: Wastewater Covid-19 virus measurement, it was pioneering work by collaboration of MetroVan, UBC, BCCDC making wastewater info available in 2021.
There was however missing data during Dec 20-Jan 5 due to holidays. (7/n)
Backgrounder: Wastewater Covid conc. can be diluted by rainfall/snowmelt, esp if there are areas with combined sewer system, or problems of inflow (rain water seeping into broken pipes) and infiltration (ground water penetrating into broken pipes) burnaby.ca/services-and-p… (8/n)
Some jurisdictions correct for the effect of rainfall or dilution by using ways to "normalize" the data.
There is information that currently the BC wastewater does not show normalized data, thus does not correct for factors like rainfall/snowmelt. 613covid.ca/wastewater/ (9/n)
Greater Vancouver experienced significant snowmelt and rain Jan 5-7. (10/n)
News reports of "Excess rainwater in sewer system" with "5 to 10 times the sewage volume, equivalent of 20,000 homes flushing their toilets" (Coquitlam)
burnaby.ca/services-and-p… (11/n)
BCCDC: "recent heavy snowmelt runoff and rain in Metro Vancouver may affect results in unpredictable ways." (12/n)
I believe it is very likely that the wastewater sample during Jan 5-7 may have been under-estimated due to dilution. Another 1-2 weeks of data, normalized for precipitation, should give PH a better picture. (13/n)
*Correct link to the Coquitlam sewer story (14/n)
Going back to the top, BC's current "case trajectory" is Severely underestimated and should not be used to compare to other jurisdictions.
I also do not think BC has reached the "peak of infections" yet. Hospitalizations will lag by another 1-2 weeks. ∼end

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More from @GreaterfoolVan

Jan 15,
Excess rainwater in sewer system "5 to 10 times the sewage volume"
One can guess what that's gonna do to Covid-19 virus concentration in wastewater treatment stations.
**Unless BC Wastewater Covid-19 concentration measurements are Normalized (like Ottawa, Sask).
But 'Normalization' was not mentioned in BC's wastewater data or by BCCDC situation report.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 14,
POLL: For BC K-12 parents, school staff and students, about what percentage of students in class did NOT come to school this week (Jan 10-14)? #BCEd #Covid19BC #BCpoli
Current results: Image
Read 5 tweets
Jan 13,
!! Pregnant persons can contact BC Get Vaccinated call centre at 1-833-838-2323 to book their booster dose if it has been more than 2 months (56 days) since 2nd dose. Translators available.
Source: BC Government IG reply Jan 12, 2022. #Covid19BC #bcpoli
Immunize BC Website updated today:
All pregnant people aged 18+ are prioritized to receive their COVID-19 booster 2 months after their second dose. Call 1-833-838-2323 and self-identify as pregnant — you can be at any point in your pregnancy.
immunizebc.ca/COVID-19-vacci… #Covid19BC
I found out from reddit and did my own research on @BCGovNews Instagram reply and @ImmunizeBC website ...
Read 4 tweets
Jan 13,
Pregnant people in BC can now book booster dose 2 months (56 days) after second dose. #Covid19BC
Read 4 tweets
Jan 12,
New: Greater Vancouver Covid-19 Virus in Wastewater:
Lulu Isld:
Dec 20: 47,219
Jan 5: 803,923 (17x)
Dec 20: 40,060
Jan 5: 332,835 (8x)
Lions Gate:
Dec 20: 27,064
Jan 5: 304,426 (11x)
Dec 20: 37,117
Jan 5: 694,718 (19x)
@vb_jens #Covid19BC ImageImageImageImage
Not sure of factors that can influence wastewater Covid-19 virus concentration (eg freezing vs snowmelt conditions?)
Map of wastewater treatment plants in Greater Vancouver Image
Read 16 tweets
Sep 15, 2021
COVID-19 physician Webinar incl Dr Gustafson: "see a degree of decoupling of infection from hospitalization" "we're in a transition phase"
"need to stop counting cases like we've been counting in the last 18 mths... need to focus on hospitalizations & deaths" #Covid19BC
Dr Gustafson on mental health: Children have been struggling. Young adults affected disproportionately.
now on vaccine trials in children
Read 23 tweets

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