Oh my, Johnson must be getting desperate. His tactic for holding onto power now seems to be “talking up” his success in managing the pandemic.
Some things to bear in mind as the battle for the narrative continues…
While we can get distracted by the ‘with’ or ‘from’ Covid argument, here is the excess death data…one of the good overall measures for how a nation responded to the pandemic.
Ireland, Germany and France had about half as many excess deaths as the UK.
We averaged between 500 to 1000 extra deaths at home per week, throughout the pandemic.
Note, only a fraction were Covid.
We cancelled a huge number of surgeries.
[2020 data]
And waiting lists are now at an all time record of nearly 6m.
And note the steep increase as Omicron surges and displacing care for millions…and Johnson decided to “persevere”.
Back on the frontline the damage caused by 'letting it rip' is all too apparent. "Broken" seems to be the word of the day - both for staff and NHS.
As the battle for the Omicron narrative begins, hearing the word 'coping' now stings a bit too much...'success' a swell of anger...
Lots of Covid today. New outpatient treatments (someone has to administer them); loads of patients not well, but with some effort can be managed at home; the inpatients, and the odd escalation to Level 2 care..
It's a lot of work in the middle of our usual brutal winter caseloads
Being on the senior medical team is tough. Lots of compromising, and spreading too little way too thinly. Sleepless nights and little left to give for the family. I feel for the patients more...although many don't realise. I feel also for the juniors and med students...
To appreciate the magnitude of lunacy behind the UK, US, and some other nations pandemic strategy, it is helpful to try and “game out” how the pandemic will “end”.
Here are some scenarios…
1. Waves of new variants with increasing immune tolerance to SARS-CoV-2.
Only someone very brave or very foolish would bet against more variants. As the population develops immunity to one variant the conditions become favourable for another to take hold.
We don’t know what such variants may look like. They may be more severe or less severe, they may cause more illness in the young or less, they may be more responsive to vaccines or less. No doubt, on this path uncertainty remains high.
Singapore has performed well.
About the size of Scotland (pop 5m.), they have suffered 800 deaths.
They began with a 3 month Lockdown, which they used to significantly increase care capacity.
They have 5000 additional Covid Care Beds and opened 900 Public Health Clinics (GP-led).
Apart from brief periods, routine care has continued relatively unaffected by Covid. GP's and private hospitals have been financially supported to provide routine care, while GP's and government hospitals tackled Covid.
This is reflected in their low excess mortality rate:
Some good news this morning. NHS chiefs have called for more resources to the frontline and called out Johnson’s rhetoric of “riding it out”.
Concerns grow that millions of patients will suffer unless action is taken…
[Reported in the Guardian]
While still not publicly requesting proper PPE for front-facing staff nor directly asking for an immediate pay rise, @NHSConfed have openly challenged the PM’s reassurance that the NHS is not overwhelmed.
States:
“The government now needs to do all it can to mobilise more staff and other resources for the NHS to get through this extremely challenging period.”
Calling for reducing staff isolation to 5 days is IMO desperate and possibly counterproductive measure to staff frontline