Oh my, Johnson must be getting desperate. His tactic for holding onto power now seems to be “talking up” his success in managing the pandemic.

Some things to bear in mind as the battle for the narrative continues…
While we can get distracted by the ‘with’ or ‘from’ Covid argument, here is the excess death data…one of the good overall measures for how a nation responded to the pandemic.

Ireland, Germany and France had about half as many excess deaths as the UK.
We averaged between 500 to 1000 extra deaths at home per week, throughout the pandemic.

Note, only a fraction were Covid.
We cancelled a huge number of surgeries.

[2020 data]
And waiting lists are now at an all time record of nearly 6m.

And note the steep increase as Omicron surges and displacing care for millions…and Johnson decided to “persevere”.

bbc.co.uk/news/health-58…
Even our access to urgent and emergency care has been severely reduced.

Getting an ambulance for Cat 2 - stroke, chest pain..- has more than doubled to an AVERAGE of 53 minutes.
The delays get even worse once arriving at A&E. A new record for our government in people waiting more than 12 hours in A&E.

Note: much, much worse on this Omicron wave.
Delayed action has led to thousands of deaths and millions suffering.

The PM has failed to learn and has repeated the exact same ‘too little too late’ approach in all four waves.

And we are only just keeping up with our counterparts on vaccines…
Impression
It would be neither just nor of use to future outbreaks for Johnson’s pandemic leadership to be considered anything other than disastrous.
The strategy seemed to be mass infection + healthcare rationing in 2020.

Then vaccines, mass infection and further rationing of healthcare in 2021.

We have had two years to prepare: better masks, ventilation, improve NHS capacity…and Johnson has failed.

Four chances…OUT!
Boris set to use “success” in pandemic to stay in office.

The actual outcomes ⬆️

@HackedOffHugh @daraobriain @RealMattLucas @DeborahMeaden @stephenfry @davidschneider @campbellclaret @guardian @SkyNews @GMB @PeterStefanovi2 @DrEricDing

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More from @danielgoyal

Jan 14,
Covid update from the UK frontline.

Things are looking different at the “front door”

Here’s how…
Context:
▪️Scotland
▪️Non-city
▪️High vax rate + high booster rate
▪️Respectful people: masks, distancing, isolating when needed.
▪️Care homes still protected
I compare this wave with the last delta wave July ‘21 to Nov ‘21 - so called, Delta baseline.

Just my experience of the patients I see.

Our rates have been about 3 X higher than our delta baseline.
Read 11 tweets
Jan 10,
Back on the frontline the damage caused by 'letting it rip' is all too apparent. "Broken" seems to be the word of the day - both for staff and NHS.
As the battle for the Omicron narrative begins, hearing the word 'coping' now stings a bit too much...'success' a swell of anger...
Lots of Covid today. New outpatient treatments (someone has to administer them); loads of patients not well, but with some effort can be managed at home; the inpatients, and the odd escalation to Level 2 care..
It's a lot of work in the middle of our usual brutal winter caseloads
Being on the senior medical team is tough. Lots of compromising, and spreading too little way too thinly. Sleepless nights and little left to give for the family. I feel for the patients more...although many don't realise. I feel also for the juniors and med students...
Read 8 tweets
Jan 9,
How will the pandemic end?

To appreciate the magnitude of lunacy behind the UK, US, and some other nations pandemic strategy, it is helpful to try and “game out” how the pandemic will “end”.

Here are some scenarios…
1. Waves of new variants with increasing immune tolerance to SARS-CoV-2.

Only someone very brave or very foolish would bet against more variants. As the population develops immunity to one variant the conditions become favourable for another to take hold.
We don’t know what such variants may look like. They may be more severe or less severe, they may cause more illness in the young or less, they may be more responsive to vaccines or less. No doubt, on this path uncertainty remains high.
Read 18 tweets
Jan 7,
Here is the UK’s national ICU report. Published today.
Only one point I would like to draw your attention to:

The ICU burden of Covid in comparison to pneumonia and to Flu.

Page 23/24

icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audi…
Firstly, pneumonia.

The orange lines are Covid ICU admissions. The grey are pneumonia (non-Covid).

Our post-freedom baseline ICU use from Covid was 2K to 3K per month [Peaked at 12k Jan ‘21.]

Pneumonia baseline 2019 was 1K to 1.7K per month. With peak at 2K.
Here is Flu (Influenza).

2019. For around 6 months there were almost no Flu admissions to ICU. Then, between 100 to 650 admissions per month.

2,600 Flu ICU admissions in 2019.
42,000 Covid ICU admissions in 2021.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 6,
"Living with Covid" means different things in different countries.

Lets look at Singapore...

@chrischirp @ChrisCEOHopson @Kit_Yates_Maths @jburnmurdoch @DrGregorSmith @devisridhar @theAliceRoberts @doctor_oxford @DrEricDing @Dr2NisreenAlwan
Singapore has performed well.
About the size of Scotland (pop 5m.), they have suffered 800 deaths.
They began with a 3 month Lockdown, which they used to significantly increase care capacity.
They have 5000 additional Covid Care Beds and opened 900 Public Health Clinics (GP-led).
Apart from brief periods, routine care has continued relatively unaffected by Covid. GP's and private hospitals have been financially supported to provide routine care, while GP's and government hospitals tackled Covid.
This is reflected in their low excess mortality rate:
Read 12 tweets
Jan 6,
NHS Confederation steps up!

Some good news this morning. NHS chiefs have called for more resources to the frontline and called out Johnson’s rhetoric of “riding it out”.

Concerns grow that millions of patients will suffer unless action is taken…

[Reported in the Guardian]
While still not publicly requesting proper PPE for front-facing staff nor directly asking for an immediate pay rise, @NHSConfed have openly challenged the PM’s reassurance that the NHS is not overwhelmed.
States:

“The government now needs to do all it can to mobilise more staff and other resources for the NHS to get through this extremely challenging period.”

Calling for reducing staff isolation to 5 days is IMO desperate and possibly counterproductive measure to staff frontline
Read 6 tweets

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