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Jan 16,, 13 tweets, 5 min read
Looks like there will be a report on academic freedom shortly, presenting results of a survey of 650 academics including 300 professors from UK, Aus, US, Canada. One of those professors was, I think, me. Here's what I thought of the survey in June 2021
Here's what my colleague @ailsa_henderson thought:
Here are the thoughts of @SRDorman

I don't know if they completed the survey (as I did) but provide some further illustration that those with survey research expertise issues with the question wordings used in this survey at the time
Those examining survey results should therefore be aware that (a) there were flaws in many of the Qs asked (b) the target audience were aware of and criticised these flaws (c) these flaws may have influenced response rate and patterns of response
Put simply, if you're an academic working in survey research and you're asked to complete a survey with questions set up in a way you see as flawed, you may simply refuse to answer. The response rate of 8% to the survey suggests this may be a non-trivial problem.
In my case, I reacted to vague/poorly formulated questions by just answering "don't know" on issues which, with a more precise wording, I would have expressed a view on. I expect such responses will be excluded from percentages for or against posns in the report (as is standard).
Others may simply have refused to fully complete the survey once they encountered problematic Qs, or refused to participate in the survey at all if the concerns they raised about the Qs were not addressed.
My conclusion from June - survey mostly fine but with some problematic items that needed more work on question wording/response categories etc:
Another colleague surveyed @StuartWilksHeeg also had similar reservations at the time
@StuartWilksHeeg Another thread from another colleague raising ethical/disclosure concerns:
@StuartWilksHeeg Another colleague, this time with data reporting concerns
@StuartWilksHeeg One of the 92% who didn't respond explains why:

@StuartWilksHeeg Another in the 92% of non-responders highlights issues about the invitation (in particular lack of disclosure) to explain why they declined - "I considered this to be spam/suspect"

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More from @robfordmancs

Rob Ford Profile picture
Jan 11,
I think Cummings is right here - this is a faulty inference from social media, where there are two very active "sides" with intense and increasingly entrenched prefs. Polling shows public aren't like that at all on Covid though - instinctively cautious & responsive to new info
This is also what we would expect from incentives. Brexit encourages expressive preferences signalling tribal affiliation because stakes are v low for most people. COVID incentivises accuracy and responsiveness because stakes are high (literally life & death
I also don't think there's much meaningful read-across from Brexit to COVID attitudes, again due to incentives. Leave elites have tried to push libertarian, anti-mask, anti-lockdown messages. Fallen flat w/Leave voters (older, poorer) who don't buy into ideas that cld kill them
Read 5 tweets
Rob Ford Profile picture
Jan 10,
The puzzling thing about this is that many of Corbyn's advisors correctly diagnosed the 2019 launch of ChuK/TIG as a doomed enterprise given the electoral system and Labour's profile and organisational dominance. Why would they assume a Corb/PJPP would do any better?
On the one hand, there probably is a more geographically concentrated radical left-Corbyn sympathetic vote, and Corbyn is a higher profile figure than any of the TiGgers. On the other hand, the strongest seats for a Corb/PJPP would be seats where Lab is *very* dominant
Main impact of ChUK-TIG was to remove a number of Labour MPs who were never on board with Corbyn's leadership. Most were replaced with pro-Corbyn (or at least Corbyn-accepting) MPs. Would be ironic if Corbyn himself now performed the same service for his successor
Read 4 tweets
Rob Ford Profile picture
Jan 6,
The leader was Trump. The goal was convincing voters the 2020 election was stolen. The plan was to overturn it and if that proved impossible, to pave the way for overturning the next election. The riot may have failed in the SR but I fail to see that as "reassuring" as Neil does.
40% plus of the US electorate now say the 2020 election result was not legitimate. I do not find that to be "reassuring". It follows directly from the events of a year ago.
The majority of members of the Republican House now openly reject the legitimacy of the 2020 election result. I do not find that "reassuring". It follows directly from the events of a year ago.
Read 6 tweets
Rob Ford Profile picture
Jan 5,
Regardless of what the public voted for, if Edward Leigh voted for the new immigration system, then he has already voted for this. The new system increased restrictions on EU immigration and reduced restrictions on non-EU immigration.
And, in fact, contra Edward Leigh, a system like the one now introduced, which applies uniform controls, and selects based on skills, demand and other economic criteria, is exactly what the public (both Leave and Remain) repeatedly say they want in polling
Despite COVID, there have already been large increases in migration via both the skilled work and study route from India, Pakistan, Nigeria and many other countries over the past year - this is the system Edward Leigh's government voted in, working as designed and advertised
Read 4 tweets
Rob Ford Profile picture
Dec 30, 2021
The next few days are going to be a hot mess, COVID comms wise, as the irresistable force of motivated reasoning hits the immovable object of Christmas/New Year's reporting schedules
Expect to see a lot of alarmist reporting of large numbers, with caveats about how they lump together several days' figures missing/ignored. Countered by a lot of overconfident reporting of small numbers, with caveats about Xmas/NY under-reporting missing/ignored.
For researchers of confirmation bias, its the Most Wonderful Time of The Year
Read 4 tweets
Rob Ford Profile picture
Dec 14, 2021
It also puts Labour firmly on the side of public opinion, which as always through the pandemic supports restrictions to combat an emerging threat. Con rebels are adopting a position most of their voters - and in particular their older voters - reject.
The broader problem for Cons this reflects is that many of the strongest ideological convictions of their more vocal & rebellious backbenchers - small state market liberalism, libertarian opposition to COVID restrictions - don't really have any electoral market at all.
These positions are also particularly toxic with the Leave voting (once UKIP voting) "red wall" type supporters Cons picked up in 2017-19, who tend to have exactly the opposite combination of views - favouring big state interventionism and authoritarianism on most things
Read 8 tweets

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