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Rahul Profile picture
@rhemrajani9
Jan 16, 2022 • 9 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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🧵...This is the balance sheet that the FED has to unwind, to try and curb inflation, control asset prices, along with ensure employment markets are stable.

There are SEVERAL other effects.... thread below 🧵

$SPX $MSFT $QQQ $AMZN $FB $AAPL $TSLA
1. Multiples // PE ratio

Notice that blip in 2018, last time the FED attempted this, thats when you saw Dec 2018, until the FED retracted.

$SPX $QQQ

2. Big tech.

The mega tech names have made massive gains during this liquidity infused cycle. Interesting chart, h/t @Mayhem4Markets 📊

$MSFT $AMZN $GOOGL $FB $AAPL

3. Velocity will matter

Here's why: h/t @Mayhem4Markets

4. Re ratings in growth stocks

How are you willing to pay today, for future sales?

Many have dropped over 40-50% in the past couple months. $NET $CRWD $SE $UPST $AFRM $TWLO $SHOP $SQ

5. How the yield curve is affected

source: schwab.com/resource-cente…
6. Does inflation slowdown ?

source: schwab.com/resource-cente…
7. Interest rates

How high can they go? This can have massive global ramifications, my friend @Mayhem4Markets has broken this down mathematically many times on spaces. How much💲tees off the USD and impact on credit markets.

source: bit.ly/3FDy78B
8. Retweet and share!

If you enjoyed this 🧵 follow me for more on #stocks #investing and the markets !

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More from @rhemrajani9

Rahul Profile picture
Feb 25, 2023
The markets this past week 🧵…

- PCE
- Housing markets 🏠
- Inflation 🛍️
- Earnings / Guidance 💸
- Retail investors
- $SPX 📊
- AI stocks 🤖
- Headcount vs $SPX
- Financial conditions 💰
- Fed funds 📊
- $USD / $DXY 💵

Let’s dig in below, if helpful please RT 🔀… read on 👇
PCE feds preferred inflation measure comes in 🔥 than expected.

Per @benjaminMlavine “First YOY PCE increase since September. Only 6 of 61 economists surveyed by Bbg had a 1.8% personal spending forecast. Establishment caught off guard by the #bigflip”
Another datapoint that saw a recent bounce - used cars 🚗 chart by @Lvieweconomics

Was discussing this as chatted on PCE this a.m. #bigflip @eliant_capital
Read 15 tweets
Rahul Profile picture
Feb 19, 2023
🛬🚨🛩️: How are we going to land?

“Powell: "You fly, right? Sometimes the landing is perfect. Sometimes the landing is a bit bumpy. It's still a good landing." - back in May

Historically extensive rate hike cycles don’t end well. So how is a soft landing possible?

Read on… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
🛬 Landing? #Bigflip ? Soft landing?

What does this all even mean ⁉️

Great overview by @benjaminMlavine to help set the foundation 👇. $SPX $QQQ
The fed pivot has quickly turned into a fed pause for longer. Markets don’t typically bottom 📉 while rates are 📈.

Another chart to illustrate in the following tweet.
Read 10 tweets
Rahul Profile picture
Feb 18, 2023
Market round up 🧵📍…

▪️Inflation 📊
▪️Fed funds rate 💸
▪️Retail sales 🛍️
▪️Earnings yields vs T-bills
▪️Options
▪️Tail risks ⚠️
▪️US budget deficit vs GDP 💰
▪️Household savings 🏦
▪️PPI

📬 daily free 🗞️ is live!—> TheOneRead.com <—

Let’s dive in 👇 $SPX $QQQ 🔂
Inflation came in at 6.4% this past week shelter being part of the reason 🏠. ImageImage
Very interesting 📊 on the fed funds rate 👇
Read 13 tweets
Rahul Profile picture
Jan 28, 2023
Soft landing 𝙤𝙧 Fed forces a recession?

🧵 which will cover:

▪️ GDP
▪️ Inflation
▪️ Financial conditions
▪️ Risks if we pause early
▪️ 📊 $SPX and $QQQ 📊
▪️ $DXY and FX
▪️ Feds balance sheet
▪️ Earnings
▪️ Unemployment and jobs
▪️ Consumer spending

Let’s dive in! 👇🔂
Advanced GDP and annualized GDP prints came in this week. Data looks more positive and headed in the right direction.
Has CPI peaked ? Which components of inflation stay stickier ?

Next couple FOMC decisions are critical, the last thing the Fed wants is inflation to creep back up.

CPI and Core data 📊👇
Read 12 tweets
Rahul Profile picture
Jan 23, 2023
𝐄𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐫 🧵…

In this thread ⬇️ you’ll find:

▪️ $TSLA earnings estimates + 📊
▪️ $MSFT earnings estimates
▪️ Wall Street tech profits outlook
▪️ $SPX earnings dashboard
▪️ $SPX P/E 2023 projections

If this is helpful, be sure to RT 🔂

Read below 👇
(1/8🧵) $TSLA earnings snapshot:

EPS estimate: $1.127
Revenue estimate: $24.065B
Forward PE current: 31x
Avg analyst price target: $190.10

🗓 Reporting on Wednesday!
(2/8🧵) $MSFT earnings snapshot:

EPS estimate: $2.296
Revenue estimate: $52.94B
Forward PE current: 24.7x
Avg analyst price target: $288.45

🗓 Reporting on Tuesday!
Read 9 tweets
Rahul Profile picture
Dec 29, 2022
🚨When will the market 𝗯𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗼𝗺?

If you use this historical data as a guide, $SPX is down ~20% ytd so another 12% decline would bring us to avg drawdown.

And from bottom it takes an avg of 21 months just to come back to previous top. 😮

Cont’d… 🧵
So if the decline started March 2022 we would bottom somewhere early to middle of next year.

But wait, for us to bottom we probably also need a Fed pivot.

And historically, markets drop ⬇️ after a pivot before finding the next leg up.

So will the Fed pause in 23’ and when?
Another interesting data point on the market bottom $SPX
Read 7 tweets

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