Also, I'm only cautiously optimistic about India, given the 2 steps forward, 1 step back nature of the place.
And it's very sad to see the US trajectory. Long topic, but don't think it's easily reversible. More likely to see dollar collapse, a serious reset, *then* a rebuild.
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It’s actually pretty important to have an agreed-upon quantitative framework for teasing out the relative contributions of luck vs skill vs hard work vs initial conditions.
Gets to core questions about what is inherited privilege vs actual accomplishment.
We recognize that athletes, mathematicians, models, and singers all have intrinsic talents.
Anyone can pick up a ball, pencil, mirror, or microphone and quickly see if they have comparable gifts.
This makes people accept nonuniform outcomes. No entitlement to a Super Bowl Ring.
For anything involving others, though — especially management or finance — many believe no skill is involved. It’s all lucky, lazy fat cats.
I don’t believe we can convince them they are wrong.
I believe we need to make them CEOs & investors too. Make it easy to try their luck.
People forget just how completely non-obvious the entire digital revolution was every step of the way.
1995: WWW will fail
2002: Google will fail
2007: iPhone will fail
2013: Facebook will fail
Virtually every sentence was wrong in this one. It's like the opposite of the Sovereign Individual.
"Yet Nicholas Negroponte, director of the MIT Media Lab, predicts that we'll soon buy books & newspapers straight over the Intenet. Uh, sure." newsweek.com/clifford-stoll…
For example, they were calling Facebook a fad all the way till 2013. Then they flipped to calling it a threat to democracy.
To calibrate, in 2010, it was supposedly a joke that Facebook (already with 500M+ users) was worth $33B. It just made ~$33B in revenue in one quarter.