Let's look at this in an alternative way. If Russia was definitely going to use military force in Ukraine, how would their behavior differ than what they're doing now? Their current behavior with the buildup, ultimatums, deadline, and commitment to a military response is unique.
https://twitter.com/ELuttwak/status/1482586397445869574
We have consistently underestimated Russia's ability to fight wars, and they are better prepared to do so now than any previous time (the intervention in Ukraine-Syria happened when their economy was much worse off). They have multiple military options short of a full invasion.
When was the last time Russia deployed almost an entire Combined Arms Army from Siberia to Ukraine's border with what appears to be a division (+) force on the way from the Eastern Military District? They're deploying units based ~50 miles from North Korea. This isn't routine.
Do you think Putin is more or less willing to use military force now than he was in 2000 or 2005? Russia has been mostly successful when it has used force under Putin, including Georgia, Syria, and Ukraine. That factors into his assessment of the costs of a military escalation.
The greater context and Russia's behavior suggests a military escalation is more likely than not. Let's remember that there will be costs if Russia decides to backdown without achieving any of its goals. Putin raised the stakes and put his credibility on the line knowing this.
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