The risk of escalation has been high since Russia gave unrealistic ultimatums with a demand to resolve them immediately. The results of this week's talks were entirely predictable. The more important development this week is the military forces moving west from Russia's Far East.
https://twitter.com/alexbward/status/1481727485217808389
Russian officials committed themselves to a "military or military-technical" response if NATO didn't make unilateral concessions. They deliberately boxed themselves in a corner with a substantial military force near Ukraine. Russian intentions/signals haven't changed much. 2/
The main development over the last month is that Russia has continued to mass combat power near Ukraine with the capability to conduct a significant escalation. That trend continues as we speak, and VDV units can now be committed near Ukraine as Kazakhstan stabilizes. 3/
Russia conducted a buildup in the spring, which failed to achieve its objectives. When you take into account the developments of the summer and fall (e.g. HMS Defender, continued arms sales, TB2 strike, etc.), the buildup in November meant Russia was more willing to escalate. 4/
My view of the situation hasn't really changed since we saw Russia's demands. There aren't any obvious offramps or solutions to Moscow's main issue: a hostile Ukraine that is increasing its conventional deterrence. The possible NATO concessions wouldn't solve the problem. 5/
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