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Jan 17,, 6 tweets, 3 min read
Tomorrow will see the publication of the first weekly death registrations update of 2022.

There is much interest in the extent to which Omicron is leading to excess deaths when compared to past winters. But how should the excess be calculated?

covidactuaries.org/2022/01/16/ass…
In a new blog @john_actuary looks at statements from @ONS and the CMI (part of @actuarynews) about the benchmark against which 2022 excess deaths will be calculated.

What sounds like a technical issue is highly significant. The ONS change will mean 11,000 fewer excess deaths.
ONS will update their benchmark so that they are taking the average of deaths in 2016-19 and 2021. Previously they used 2015-19. The chart below shows significant differences in the number of deaths “expected” each week using different choices of benchmark. Image
The main difference between CMI and ONS excess death calculations is that CMI use age-standardisation. This implicitly allows for extra deaths that occur each year because of the ageing population, even when death rates are unchanged. This meant a smaller excess in 2021. Image
Throughput the pandemic CMI have calculated excess deaths relative to mortality rates in 2019, the most recent pre-pandemic year. Death rates in 2020 were very similar to those in 2019 until the pandemic struck. CMI will continue to use 2019 as their benchmark in 2022. Image
No benchmark is perfect and different calculation methods can lead to different preferences. Let us hope that the excess in 2022 is sufficiently small that the calculation method is relegated to a niche debate between actuaries and demographers.

covidactuaries.org/2022/01/16/ass…

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More from @COVID19actuary

COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
Jan 18,
The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has published its first Mortality Monitor of 2022. It covers to 7 January (week 1).

There were 7% more deaths this week than if death rates were the same as week 1 of 2019. That is 784 excess deaths in England and Wales this week. Image
CMI calculates 121,300 excess deaths in the UK since the start of the pandemic, of which 900 occurred in 2022.

Cumulative mortality YTD is 0.4% of a full year's mortality below 2019. The cumulative measure compares the first 7 days of each year rather than ISO weeks used above. Image
As has been the case for around the last six months, the number of excess deaths calculated by the CMI was reasonably similar to the number of deaths with COVID on the death certificate this week. Image
Read 4 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
Jan 6,
A fuller update on hospitals in England today, including admissions by age and hospital deaths.

Nationally, admissions with COVID are up by 43% week-on-week, but the rate of growth has slowed significantly. Today’s total is very similar to the total reported a week ago. 1/6 Image
The regional picture is very mixed but growth has been slower everywhere. The change is most pronounced in London, where the 7-day average has fallen in recent days. The fastest growth has been the North West, up 84%. 2/6 Image
Breaking down admissions by age, the 18-64 age group has fallen in the last few days. The older age groups are still increasing but there are signs that the pace has slowed for these too. 3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
Dec 29, 2021
Latest data on COVID-19 hospital admissions and occupancy in England shows a significant increase in admissions nationally, up 54% week-on-week. 1,751 admissions were reported today.

Most of the charts that follow have been rescaled significantly in light of the latest data. 1/5
Looking at the regional data it is now clear that the rest of the country is following the sharp increase seen in London. Admissions up by more than 50% in most regions, but smaller increases for now in the South East (up 38%) and South West (up 15%). 2/5
This chart compares actual hospital admissions with modelled scenarios produced by SPI-M-O teams, including the latest update from @cmmid_lshtm to incorporate Omicron. Admissions seem to be slightly ahead of the modelled peak but tracking it closely. 3/5
Read 7 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
Dec 15, 2021
Latest data on COVID-19 hospital admissions, occupancy and deaths in England has been released.

Starting with the regional picture this week as there has been a rapid acceleration in London with admissions up by 38% week-on-week. Increases are much more gradual elsewhere. 1/5
For England as a whole, COVID-19 hospital admissions are up by 10% this week, largely driven by the big increase in London.
SAGE released new modelling provided by SPI-M-O teams in October. Actual hospital admissions are currently higher than the modelled scenarios, which did not capture the increase in admissions in October. Admissions are no longer following the downward trajectory modelled. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
Dec 14, 2021
The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has published its latest Mortality Monitor to 3 December (week 48).

There were 3% more deaths this week than if death rates were the same as week 48 of 2019. That is 383 excess deaths in England and Wales this week. Image
CMI calculates 116,900 excess deaths in the UK since the start of the pandemic, of which 44,000 occurred in 2021.

Cumulative mortality YTD is 6.3% of a full year's mortality above 2019, though for now it remains lower than 2012, 2013, 2015 and of course 2020. Image
This analysis of death rates shows significantly fewer excess deaths than COVID deaths this week, as was also the case last week. This follows a long period where the calculated excess was consistently similar to the number of COVID deaths each week. Image
Read 5 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
Dec 8, 2021
What is known and what is still to be determined in respect of Omicron? How should we think about next steps when faced with uncertainty?

In our new blog @AdeleGroyer and Stephen Kramer summarise the current state of knowledge and consider how to respond.
covidactuaries.org/2021/12/08/omi…
The effective reproduction number, R, has risen significantly in South Africa since early November, but as @trvrb shows, this may be due to a higher R0, greater immune escape, or a mixture of the two.

Initial findings suggest that Omicron *may* have less severe impacts than were seen for other variants. @MRCza states that it will take another two weeks before one can draw more precise conclusions about disease severity.
Read 7 tweets

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