Mods get their presidential candidates, VA gov candidate, and preferred agenda (ARP + BIF, no structural reforms) and yet we’re still swimming in takes about how it’s the left’s fault. It’d be nice to see mods held accountable for their choices, not just allowed to blame-shift.
McAuliffe’s loss was a great example of how punch-left narratives are accepted without evidence. The idea was that passing BIF earlier would’ve raised Biden’s approvals, carrying Terry to victory. It was a stretch, but it was gobbled up. Well here’s Biden’s approval trend.
Nationally, Democrats are following moderates’ agenda, passing BIF but not BBB nor voting rights nor structural reforms. Biden has been sinking - but is it moderates’ fault? Of course not! It never is. The key is to start from that conclusion, and reverse-engineer a reason.
Rather than assign pieces holding moderates accountable for their choices, we get pieces about how progressive ideas that *didn’t even get enacted* are to blame.

Mod agenda gets enacted, Biden sinks, ergo it is progressives’ fault for… existing, I guess.
If you believe affective polarization. (ie, vibes) is the answer (and it might be), what exactly has Biden done to become a lefty? He pushed BIF hard, with many press appearances, cabinet officials deployed, WH press conference, signing ceremony... Nothing comparable on the left.
I’m not saying the left should not be self-critical. I’m saying there should be at least equal accountability for the mod wing. Arguably, there should be a lot more, since they are the ones who are actually, you know, in power and making decisions and all that.

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More from @AJentleson

Dec 22, 2021
A path forward: give Manchin’s 1.8T bill a vote, with a short (~6 month) CTC extension included - a rounding error in a bill that big. Dems would be giving Manchin everything he wants, including time to negotiate a bipartisan CTC solution. In return… 1/ washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/1…
All Dems would be asking, in exchange for giving Manchin everything he wants, is to not let 10 million children slide into poverty while he pursues his bipartisan CTC negotiations. But of course it would be unwise for Dems to simply hope & pray those negotiations succeed. So… 2/
Dems can roll out a more narrowly focused FAMILIES Act, with a long-term extension of the CTC as its centerpiece. We know the CTC complies with reconciliation rules, and there are reconciliation vehicles available next year. This will backstop Manchin’s negotiations, and… 3/
Read 6 tweets
Dec 19, 2021
Everything Manchin cared about was in BIF. While the WH never had much leverage over Manchin, that’s all the more reason to cultivate what little leverage existed. Giving it all away, for free, up front was a strategic mistake. The day Biden endorsed BIF was the day he lost BBB.
The argument that they were linked was a valiant effort, but too clever by half. When the WH rushed to calm GOP outrage and issue a statement walking back Biden’s characterization of the bills as linked, it was a tell that when push came to shove, they would move BIF separately.
The most optimistic take is that Manchin’s comments leave the door open for breaking up BBB and moving some smaller bills. If so, the decision to do an omnibus was a mistake. Even in this “small bites” scenario, it’d be better to have the BIF substance available as sweeteners.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 17, 2021
People often ask me what Reid would have done differently. Hypotheticals are hard: would he have been able to get Manchin and Sinema? Idk. But on one thing I'm confident: the minute he realized the Dem agenda hinged on a 50/50 majority, he would have replaced the Parliamentarian.
You do it right away. With everything else going on, it's a half-day story at best. It's just a staff job. Easy call.
And the CBO director too.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 16, 2021
Leaders should do what is right for the causes they care about when they have the power to enact change. They should not reverse-engineer their agenda out of fear of what the other side might do - especially when the other side can do all of these bad things anyway, as they will.
Yes, this is the classic case. Rs used reconciliation to try to repeal the ACA and failed to get a majority. Doing things is hard, but undoing them is hard too. Expansions of rights and the social safety net have proven particularly hard to roll back.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 4, 2021
The butterfly meme, where the butterfly is Fox hammering CRT relentlessly and the guy is saying, “is this the national political environment”?
The latest “savvy” take is that it wasn’t CRT, it was “the national political environment.” What the hell do people think the national political environment is? Fox isn’t hammering Dems for failing to pass BIF, people,
“It wasn’t CRT because New Jersey.” Ah yes, because no GOP voters in New Jersey watch Fox News or use social media. Come on, man.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 27, 2021
Democrats are handing Trump the opportunity to run on popular economic policies that they could not get done. Policies that target the suburbs.

"I alone can fix it."
I’m surprised at those who think Trump won’t do this. In 2016, Trump ran on popular, traditionally Democratic policies like protecting Medicare and Social Security. This was key to his appeal as a different kind of Republican. As POTUS, he actually signed a paid leave bill. 👇
Of course he’ll run on racism. But Jim Crow was propped up in part by showering whites with government largesse. Many of the biggest New Dealers were also the biggest white supremacists. Richard Russell created the school lunch program! MAGA = Racism + promised material benefits.
Read 4 tweets

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