Apple iPad in 1992 was called Apple Newton. It failed as the timing was wrong, despite being a fantastic idea.
In similar fashion, asset allocators and private investors need to think way more about timing, and focus way less on narratives and “fundamental reasoning.”
In similar fashion, asset allocators and private investors need to think way more about timing, and focus way less on narratives and “fundamental reasoning.”
Simplified example: “ABC is a great investment.”
Real estate was a great investment in 2012, but an awful one in 2006.
Gold was a great investment in 2001, but an awful one in 2011.
Tech stocks were a great investment in 1990, but an awful one in 2000.
Timing really matters.
Real estate was a great investment in 2012, but an awful one in 2006.
Gold was a great investment in 2001, but an awful one in 2011.
Tech stocks were a great investment in 1990, but an awful one in 2000.
Timing really matters.
How many consensus ideas and popular investment opportunities today will turn out to be money losing propositions over the next 5 to 10 years?
And how many depressed, disliked and under-owned investments today, will turn out to be home run winners in by the end of 2020s?
And how many depressed, disliked and under-owned investments today, will turn out to be home run winners in by the end of 2020s?
Sequoia Capital uses a very interesting mental model showcasing the importance of timing when making venture capital bets.
They ask: WHY NOW?
Or as Charlie Munger famously says: invert, always invert. Maybe it’s better to ask why wouldn’t the timing work now.
They ask: WHY NOW?
Or as Charlie Munger famously says: invert, always invert. Maybe it’s better to ask why wouldn’t the timing work now.
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